Free MLB Picks - August 28, 2023

Written by:
Tony Caliente
Published on:
Aug/27/2023

We were so tempted to pick the UNDER on the Royals-Mariners Sunday game at 8 as everything suggested this one should be an OVER except that the total was not moving with all the action on the OVER.  Instead we decided to sit the day out.  Be sure to place all your bets at BetUS here.

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Angels @ Phillies

This one features a tempting line on Philadelphia at just -142 having won seven of their last ten versus and Angels team that continues to struggle.

Taijuan Walker held the Giants to two runs across five innings last Tuesday but failed to capture the win.  He lost his previous start giving up two homers and three runs in five innings against the Twins.

He's faced the current Angels lineup 40 times and only allowed just 7 hits (.175).

Lucas Giolito is 7-10 with a 4.32 ERA for the Angels. 

He's faced the current Phillies roster a total of 70 times allowing 7 hits, three of which were homers (.240). 

The total was coming in at 9 with five of the last ten staying UNDER that number.

The Angels have scored four or fewer runs in 7 of their last ten games overall while allowing four or more in half of their last ten.

Philadelphia has scored six or more runs in seven of their last ten games while allowing four or fewer in eight of their last ten.  

Yankees @ Tigers

The total on this game is 9 with eight of the last ten in this series staying UNDER that number.   The Yankees have won five of the last six in this series.

Luis Severino started to right the ship on Wednesday, throwing 6 2/3 shutout innings in a win over the Nationals.

Reese Olson was hit hard in a no-decision against the Cubs on Tuesday, giving up six runs on four hits over his 4 2/3 frames.  He gave up four runs in just 2.5 innings in his prior start but pitched two-hit ball for six innings over the Twins in the game before that one.

The Yankees have scored 3 or fewer runs in half of their last ten games while allowing three or fewer in half as well.

Detroit has scored four or more in eight of their last ten while allowing three or fewer runs by opponents over that span.

Better than 80 percent of the total action was on the OVER with the line coming down a half to 8.5.

Take the UNDER 8.5

Astros @ Red Sox

This total has gone from 10 to 9.5 (Americas Bookie) and the line from Boston -119 to -148 overnight.  Most of the US regulated books were sitting on the 10 as of Monday afternoon.

The total in this series has not hit above 9 in the last nine meetings.  Three of the last four have seen runs scored well above the overnight total of 10.5.

Cristian Javier is 9-2 with a 4.52 ERA and he won his last start.  He's been victorious in two of the last three.  

Last week, he allowed three runs in five innings against the Red Sox.  Prior to that Javier surrendered four runs in a no-decision.

When you look at the five hits in 29 at bats versus this current Boston lineup, it's difficult to imagine there being OVER 10.5 runs scored.

Likewise, Chris Sale has allowed only 8 hits in 27 at bats versus the Astros current lineup.

These teams split their series last week. 

Padres @ Cardinals

The total here has gone from 9.5 to 10 overnight while San Diego was coming in as low as -170 at some books and -190 at others.  By Monday the total had moved from 9.5 down to 9 with around 60 percent of the total action on the UNDER.  The line had moved from -170 to -207.

Blake Snell (10-9, 2.73 ERA) looks like the better pitcher here, at least on paper.  He surrendered three runs over six innings on Tuesday in a loss to the Marlins but is coming off two consecutive wins against the Orioles and Diamondbacks.  He has not permitted more than 3 runs over his last few starts.

Five of the last seven games he has started in have stayed UNDER the overnight total of 10.

Snell has a small number of appearances (27) versus these Cards.  He's only allowed 3 hits (.111).   

Adam Wainwright (3-9, 8.61 ERA) does not have a win in his last nine appearances.  He's lost his last five and eight of those last nine.

Wainwright surrendered six runs across 4 2/3 innings Tuesday in a loss to the Pirates and yielded three runs in six innings versus the Mets in his prior start.

On August 11 Wainwright lasted just one-plus innings and gave up eight runs to the Royals.

Versus the Padres he has permitted 28 hits in 108 at bats.

Brewers @ Cubs

The line ranged anywhere from -119 to -130 favoring the Cubs as of Monday.

Milwaukee has won their last eight games.  The Cubs have won seven of their last ten.  These two teams have mostly split wins and losses in their last ten meetings.

Interesting situation here in that Wade Miley does not have a win in his last four starts.  He's 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA.

Miley pitched five innings and allowed three runs Tuesday in a no-decision against the Twins.  Prior to that he allowed four runs, but just one in the prior start.

Chicago Cubs career statistics vs. Miley are 20 for 71 at bats (.282) but with only one home run.

The total here is 9. The last three meetings with a total of 9 or 9.5 have gone well OVER that number.

Jameson Taillon (7-8, 5.60 ERA) does not have a win in his last three starts.  He has surrendered four runs in his last two starts and eight against the Blue Jays on August 13.

He's faced these Brewers 80 times, giving up 21 hits (.263) but only two home runs.

The total had moved from 8.5 to 9 Monday with better than 60 percent of the action on the OVER.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

The total for this game has sat at 8.5 and the Dodgers were a steady -145 favorite.

Arizona's Zac Gallen (14-5, 3.11 ERA) has posted wins in his last three starts. Against the Rangers, he piled up 11 strikeouts across six innings of one-run baseball.  He limited the Padres to just one run in his previous start.

If history has any say in the matter, Gallen should have another spectacular night Monday.  He's allowed just 22 hits off of 110 at bats versus the current Dodgers lineup (.200).  He's only surrendered two home runs over that period.

Bobby Miller is 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA for LA.  Miller surrendered four runs in 6 1/3 innings Tuesday in a loss to the Guardians.  He allowed one to two runs his prior three starts.

Both these starters are capable of working through the 6th inning.  Arizona now sports the 3rd best bullpen over the last two weeks while the Dodgers have been decent enough.

Four of the last ten in this series have stayed UNDER the 8.5 number.  Miller started in the last one to stay UNDER 8.5 on August 9 (a 2-0 win on the road).

Arizona has been scoring of late while permitting opponents no more than 3 runs in six of the last ten starts. 

The Dodgers have scored 5 or more in their last five, all against AL teams.  They had previously scored no more than three over the other five games leading up to that hot streak.  They've also allowed three or fewer runs in half of their last ten games.

Nationals @ Blue Jays

The total on this game was trending 8.5 to 8 with 70% of the totals bets on the UNDER.   We've seen the number go to 7.5 with some books obviously trying to balance out the total action and get gamblers to back the OVER.

Josiah Gray (7-10, 3.85) starts for the Nationals.  He comes into this game with his back up against the wall not having a win over his last five starts.

Washington has been playing well of late, winning seven of their last ten games overall compared to Toronto winning just four of ten. 

Kevin Gausman is 9-8 with a 3.23 ERA.  He's due for a win after suffering through two consecutive losses.  Gausman only permitted two runs in six innings while striking out eight in a tough luck loss to the Orioles his last start.

Washington has scored 3 or fewer runs in half of their last ten and Toronto has allowed three or fewer runs in half of their last ten games.

Take the UNDER 8 here

Gambling911 Upcoming Hot Plays/Results

Monday August 28 - New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers - Pick UNDER 8.5 W

Monday August 28 - Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays - Pick UNDER 8 L

Sunday August 27 - No Plays

Saturday August 26 - Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers - Pick Astros -130 W

Saturday August 26 - New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Pick Rays -180 W

Saturday August 26 - New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Pick UNDER 7 W

Saturday August 26 - LA Dodgers @ Boston Red Sox - Pick UNDER 9.5 L

Friday August 25 - San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers - Pick UNDER 8 L

Friday August 25 - Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins - Pick UNDER 8.5 L

Thursday August 24 - Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles - Pick UNDER 8.5 W

Wednesday August 23 - Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers - Pick UNDER 8 L

Tuesday August 22 - Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles - Pick UNDER 8.5 L

Monday August 21 - No Plays

Sunday August 20 - Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals - Pick  OVER 8.5 L

Saturday August 19 - Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros - Pick Houston Astros -150 L

Friday August 18 - Miami Marlins @ LA Dodgers OVER 8.5 W

Thursday August 17 - Milwaukee Brewers @ LA Dodgers UNDER 8.5 W

Wednesday August 16 - No Plays

Tuesday August 15 - Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs - Pick Cubs -175 L

Monday August 14 - Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres - Pick UNDER 8.5 W

Monday August 14 - Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins - Pick Astros -135 L

Sunday August 13 - Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox - Pick Red Sox -130 W

Sunday August 13 - LA Angels @ Houston Astros - Pick Astros -130 L

Saturday August 12 - Chicago Cubs @ Toronto Blue Jays - Pick Blue Jays -110 L

Friday August 11 - San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Pick UNDER 9 L

Thursday August 10 - No Plays

Wednesday August 9 - LA Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Pick Dodgers -134 W

Tuesday August 8 - LA Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Pick Dodgers -152 W

Monday August 7 - No Plays

Sunday August 6 - Miami Marlins @ Texas Rangers - Pick OVER 8.5 L

Saturday August 5 - Houston Astros @ New York Yankees - Pick Astros -142 L

Friday August 4 - No Plays

Thursday August 3 - Houston Astros @ New York Yankees - Pick Astros -142 L

Wednesday August 2 - No Plays

Tuesday August 1 - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants - Pick UNDER 7.5 W

Monday July 31 - No Plays

Sunday July 30 - Seattle Mariners @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Pick Seattle -104 W

Saturday July 29 - Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros - Pick Astros -132 W

Friday July 28 - Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Pick Phillies -158 W

Thursday July 27 - No Plays

Wednesday July 26 - No Plays

Tuesday July 25 - Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers - Pick Brewers -150 L

Monday July 24 - Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins - Pick Twins -115 W

Sunday July 23 - No Plays

Saturday July 22 - New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox - Pick Red Sox -110 W

Friday July 21 - Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners - Pick Blue Jays +110 L

Wednesday July 19 - Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners - Pick UNDER 7.5 L

Tuesday July 18 - Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers - Pick Rangers -130 W

Monday July 17 - Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers - Pick UNDER 8.5 W

Sunday July 16 - Houston Astros @ LA Angels W

Saturday July 15 - Boston Red Sox @ Chicago Cubs -105 L

Friday July 14 - Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds - Pick Brewers -112 W

Sunday July 9 - Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers - Pick Blue Jays -130 W

Saturday July 8 - Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers - Pick OVER 9.5 W

Saturday July 8 - Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians - Pick Guardians -180 W

Friday July 7 - Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins - Pick Phillies -134 W

Friday July 7 - Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians - Pick Guardians -175 W

Friday July 7 - Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins - Pick Twins -145 L

Thursday July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins - Pick Marlins L

Wednesday July 5 - Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers - Pick OVER 8.5 L

Tuesday July 4 - Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox - Pick Blue Jays -120 W

Monday July 3 - Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers - Pick UNDER 9 L

Sunday July 2 - Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles - Pick Twins L

Friday June 30 - Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers - Pick Rangers -169 L

Thursday June 29 - LA Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies - Pick UNDER 12 L

Wednesday June 28 - Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals - Pick Guardians W

Thursday June 22 - Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins - Pick Marlins W

Tuesday June 20 - Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox - Pick UNDER 8.5 L

Monday June 19 - Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox - Pick Rangers -128 W

Sunday June 18 - Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners - Pick Mariners -150 W

Saturday June 17 - Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals - Pick Marlins -170 W

Thursday June 15 - Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres - Pick UNDER 8.5 L

Wednesday June 14 - New York Yankees vs. New York Mets - Pick UNDER 7 P

Tuesday June 13 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Pick Orioles +105 W

Monday June 12 - Miami Marlins vs. Seattle Mariners - Pick Mariners -130 W

Sunday June 11 - Oakland Athletics vs. Milwaukee Brewers Total 8 - Pick UNDER 8 L

Friday June 9 - Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Pick Under 8.5 W

Wednesday June 7 - Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres - Pick Mariners +100 L

Tuesday June 6 - Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians - Pick Red Sox -106 W

Monday June 5 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Pick Rays -140 W

Monday June 5 - Kansas City Royals vs. Miami Marlins - Pick Marlins -155 W

Sunday June 4 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Pick UNDER 9 W

Sunday June 4 - Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox - Pick White Sox -167 W

Saturday June 3 - Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers - Pick Rangers -143 W

Saturday June 3 - Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8.5 W

Wednesday May 31 - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants UNDER 8 L

Wednesday May 31 - Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros UNDER 8 L

Tuesday May 23 - Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease) vs. Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen) - Pick - Under 8.5 W

Wednesday May 24 - San Francisco Giants (Anthony DeSclafani) vs. Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan) - Under 7.5 L (8 runs scored)

Thursday May 25 Gambling911.com Play - Toronto Blue Jays (Alek Manoah) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Zach Eflin) - Pick Tampa Bay Rays -170 W

Friday May 26 - Texas Rangers (Jon Gray) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez) - Pick - Orioles -125 L

Saturday May 27 - San Diego Padres (Michael Wacha) vs. New York Yankees (Luis Severino) - Pick Yankees -155 W

Saturday May 27 - Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer) - Pick - Orioles L

Sunday May 28 - Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease) vs. Detroit Tigers (Eduardo Rodriguez) - Under 8/8.5 L

Sunday May 28 - Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Bradish) - Pick - Orioles W

- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com

Baseball News

Top Capper Favorite: Cubs vs. Orioles

Despite the Baltimore Orioles being listed as a -168 favorite, two of the top cappers at the G911 Sports Hub are backing their opponent, the Chicago Cubs at +142.

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