Politics

Supportive Talarico Poll Doesn't Move Odds in Texas

A new University of Texas poll shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading both potential Republican opponents in the Texas U.S. Senate race.

Submitted by Press Release on, Wed, 04/29/2026 - 15:50

Jimmy Kimmel Fired or Resigns by May 31 Odds - Prediction Markets Have This One at a 10 Percent Chance

First Lady Melania Trump along with the U.S. President Donald Trump call for ABC to pull the Jimmy Kimmel Show following remarks he made prior to Saturday shooting during White House correspondent's dinner.

Submitted by Jordan Bach on, Tue, 04/28/2026 - 10:25

Joe Scarborough, JD Vance, Sean Hannity Attending 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner Odds

Prediction markets have Scarborough favored at the prediction markets.

Submitted by C Costigan on, Sat, 04/25/2026 - 13:35

Top Republican Lawmaker Signals GOP Openness to Pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell ... Prediction Markets Chances Surge

Polymarket traders are giving U.S. President Donald Trump odds of pardoning convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell a price of +426 (implied 19% chance).

Submitted by Jagajeet Chiba on, Sat, 04/25/2026 - 10:48

Next US Supreme Court Justice to Retire Odds

BetOnline is offering odds on how many US Supreme Court justices will retire or be replaced before the next presidential race in 2028 with even odds for two (presumably Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas).

Submitted by t c jackson on, Tue, 04/21/2026 - 09:41

Kash Patel, Howard Lutnick Exit Odds Plus Virginia Redistricting

On Tuesday, a special election in Virginia could allow Democrats to enact a redistricting measure that would net them as many as four House seats in this fall’s midterm elections.

Submitted by C Costigan on, Mon, 04/20/2026 - 11:29

FBI Director Kash Patel's Scary Polymarket Exit Chances Revealed: Half Say Out By April 30

Scathing article appearing in The Atlantic accuses FBI Director of "excessive drinking and unexplained absences"

Submitted by Jagajeet Chiba on, Sat, 04/18/2026 - 21:32

Strait of Hormuz Back to Normal Traffic Betting Market Chances Drop From 39 Percent to 24 Percent Chance

The news blurbs coming in from Polymarket tell the story as to why its prediction market for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal have gone from a 39 percent chance on April 17 all the way down to a 24% chance on April 18 (Saturday).

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sat, 04/18/2026 - 15:06

Latest Iran Conflict Betting Markets as Strait of Hormuz Reopens

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that the passage for all commercial vessels through the strait “is declared completely open” with U.S. President Donald Trump making his own announcement via Truth Social.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:59

Powerful Florida Attorney Won't Run for Governor But Will Start His Own Political Party: Latest Odds

Billionaire John Morgan is a co-founder of Morgan & Morgan, which primarily handles plaintiff-side cases, meaning they represent people suing for damages. The firm is based out of Orlando, Florida.

Submitted by C Costigan on, Wed, 04/15/2026 - 18:31

Pete Hegseth Impeached by June 30 Won't Happen But You Can Bet on it

Democrats to file articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth on Wednesday

Submitted by t c jackson on, Wed, 04/15/2026 - 12:37

2028 US Presidential Election Winner Odds Have Gavin Newsom Pulling Ahead of JD Vance

The news cycle could hardly be worse for Donald Trump, J.D. Vance and the Republican Party.

Submitted by Press Release on, Tue, 04/14/2026 - 15:51

Latest US Senate Odds as North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and Nebraska Shift in Democrats Favor

Nebraska has shifted in favor of the Democrats? Well, sort of... And the odds are getting shorter for the Republicans as well.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Tue, 04/14/2026 - 09:47

Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30 Betting Market

38% of those on Polymarket believe that U.S. President Donald Trump will disparage Pope Leo XIV by the end of April.

Submitted by Gilbert Horowitz on, Mon, 04/13/2026 - 22:05

Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Odds Slide to 16-1

Donald Trump's decision to engage in war with Iran has directly impacted his chances to take home the Nobel Peace Prize in December.

Submitted by Press Release on, Mon, 04/13/2026 - 13:18

Viktor Orban Concedes Defeat as Péter Magyar Becomes Next Prime Minister of Hungary: Payout Odds Were Once 2-1

Péter Magyar will become the next prime minister of Hungary after opening at 2-1 odds. His odds coming into Sunday's election were closer to -250.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sun, 04/12/2026 - 15:45

Strait of Hormuz Betting Markets See Increased Volume as Trump Threatens Full Blockade

Traders were hardly confident that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April with just 14% believing that it will. Close to 50% felt ships would begin to transit through this vital waterway by month's end.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sun, 04/12/2026 - 10:57

Péter Magyar Next Prime Minister of Hungary Odds as Betting Markets Give Him 85 Percent Chance

Péter Magyar appears well on his way to becoming the next prime minister of Hungary. 85% of those trading at Polymarket had him winning the election with nearly $13 million in trades while Viktor Orbán had seen closer to $14 million in trading volume

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sun, 04/12/2026 - 10:42

Will Eric Swalwell Drop Out of California Gubernatorial Race? Latest Odds

"We’re in really crazy territory" were the headlines blaring Saturday morning as bombshell reports had the frontrunner to win the California gubernatorial race, Eric Swalwell, accused of sexual assault.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sat, 04/11/2026 - 11:33

Prediction Markets Now Giving Péter Magyar 70 Percent Chance of Becoming Hungary's Next Prime Minister

Vikto Orban's odds of staying in power in Hungary are getting longer by the minute.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sat, 04/11/2026 - 11:16

Eric Swalwell Odds to Be Elected Next California Governor in Free Fall Over Sexual Assault Allegations

The San Francisco Chronicle reported Friday that a woman said Swalwell sexually assaulted her in 2019 and 2024 as his odds shift considerably from -300 to 18-1

Submitted by t c jackson on, Sat, 04/11/2026 - 10:26

Viktor Orban Odds of Being Re-Elected in Hungary Crash as Peter Magyar Favored at Gambling Sites

JD Vance traveled to Budapest this week, hoping to sway Hungary's General Election where long-serving Prime Minister Viktor Orban is an underdog in the race.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Fri, 04/10/2026 - 11:36

Trump Announces End of Military Operations Against Iran by? Betting Market

A US, Israel and Iran agreement to a 2-week ceasefire announced Tuesday night remains unclear and some attacks continue.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Wed, 04/08/2026 - 11:38

Next Supreme Court Justice Odds Lists 18 Candidates

Last week, it was confirmed that Justice Samuel Alito received medical attention after falling ill last month.

Submitted by Press Release on, Mon, 04/06/2026 - 19:40

Wisconsin Voters Risk Ballots Being Tossed Over Election Betting

“I know it’s all the rage to bet on everything, but you cannot bet on an election in Wisconsin! If you do, your ballot can be challenged & thrown out," Chair Ann Jacobs posted on her social media account.

Submitted by Jagajeet Chiba on, Sat, 04/04/2026 - 22:14

Kash Patel Out By...? Betting Market Has Nearly Half of Traders Believing He's Gone End of June

Reports began surfacing on Friday that US President Donald Trump could be considering further firings. Next on the chopping block? FBI Director Kash Patel?

Submitted by Gilbert Horowitz on, Fri, 04/03/2026 - 19:02

Pete Hegseth Next Out Odds: Payout Would Be $600 for Every $400 Bet

Nearly one month after Kristi Noem's firing, Pam Bondi is reportedly out as U.S. Attorney General.

Submitted by Press Release on, Thu, 04/02/2026 - 19:11

Pam Bondi Ousted: Prediction Markets Move Above 85 Percent Chance Thursday

The payout would be $450 for every $100 bet at BetOnline (the latest odds).

Submitted by t c jackson on, Thu, 04/02/2026 - 13:35

Bet If The U.S. Supreme Court Reverse Birthright Citizenship: Greater Odds of Being Struck By Lightning

The Supreme Court seemed poised Wednesday to reject President Donald Trump’s restrictions on birthright citizenship in a momentous case that was magnified by his unparalleled presence in the courtroom.

Submitted by t c jackson on, Wed, 04/01/2026 - 20:33

Kristi Noem Divorce Odds as Husband Identified as Cross Dresser

Bryon Noem and Kristi in better times before Bryon boob pics appeared

Noem chatted up women from the so-called “bimbofication” fetish scene, in which adult performers augment their breasts with massive amounts of saline to achieve a “Barbie doll”-like appearance.

Submitted by Jagajeet Chiba on, Tue, 03/31/2026 - 20:39