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The news blurbs coming in from Polymarket tell the story as to why its prediction market for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal have gone from a 39 percent chance on April 17 all the way down to a 24% chance on April 18 (Saturday).
"JUST IN: Iran announces ships that do not pay new Strait of Hormuz fees will have their passage 'postponed'."·
BREAKING: IRGC warns ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz will be met with a 'severe response'."
In other words, it's not looking good.
On Friday morning, both Iran's foreign minister and the U.S. President announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now open to traffic.
U.S. President Donald Trump then announced the U.S. blockade would stay in place.
By Friday evening, Iran announced it would once again shut down the Strait.
More specifically, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says due to US ceasefire violations, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. It also said approaching vessles would be treated as “cooperating with the enemy”.
Trump says the naval blockade will “remain in full force” until “our transaction with Iran is 100% complete”, and accused Iran of blackmailing the US.
Per Al Jazeera:
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, has revealed details of behind-the-scenes negotiations with the US, describing a tense standoff involving a US minesweeper during talks in Islamabad.
Speaking in a television interview, Ghalibaf said Iranian officials directly confronted the US delegation over naval movements in the Strait of Hormuz.
He reaffirmed that “the Strait of Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic”.
“Therefore, from this evening, the Strait of Hormuz will be closed until this blockade is lifted.
“We warn that no vessel should move from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the violating vessel will be targeted,” the statement continued.
“Also, we inform all vessels and their owners to follow news only from the official IRGC Navy authority and through Channel 16, and the statements of the terrorist US president in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf have no credibility,” it concluded.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
