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Traders at Polymarket believe that U.S. President Donald Trump will announce the end of military actions in Iran by April 21, giving this just a 60% chance of happening.
A US, Israel and Iran agreement to a 2-week ceasefire announced Tuesday night remains unclear and some attacks continue.
The three sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire in an 11th-hour deal that headed off Trump’s threat to unleash a bombing campaign to destroy Iranian civilization. Hours later, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks Wednesday.
It was not clear if the strikes would scuttle the deal, which U.S. Vice President JD Vance called “fragile.”
Both the U.S. and Iran declared victory. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said American and Israeli forces had achieved a “capital V military victory” and that the Iranian military no longer posed a significant threat to U.S. forces or the region. The Iranian military said the country forced Israel and the U.S. to accept its “proposed conditions and surrender.”
Even before the new attacks, much about the agreement was unclear as the sides presented vastly different visions of the terms.
The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
