Line and Betting Action Alerts

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

These are your all important line movement and action reports.  See live odds and action on the Odds page, powered by AcePerHead.  All times Eastern Standard.


Green means the play came through for us or the books

Yellow means the books took a hit

Computer Code Red means upcoming or in play with action

Saturday December 2, 2023

2:21 pm - Chargers, Lions, Dolphins and Chiefs were each seeing better than 80% of the action in their respective games as of Saturday afternoon, according to AcePerHead internals. This was pretty true across the board.  Of these we found one likely opinion that the Packers cover in Green Bay against the Chiefs in the night game.  Here we have the line moving from -7 to -5.5.

Monday November 27, 2023

1:14 pm - It's the Bears but the oddsmakers have moved this one down from Vikings -3.5 to -3 with all the action (well, 75% or more) coming in on Minnesota.  We're giving the Bears a 55% shot here.  That trend was still holding at 1:15 pm.

Sunday November 26, 2023

10:37 am - Baltimore Ravens @ LA Chargers - 75% of the spread action was on the Ravens yet the number has come down off the -4 and -3.5 to -3 pretty much everywhere, thus making the Chargers quite the enticing pick.  AcePerHead internal data shows the Ravens getting as much as 80% of the action here.  To be clear, we REALLY liked LA here but it was not meant to be.  Pretty sure the books felt the Bolts would cover here.  They're just not very good.

Saturday November 25, 2023

11:15 am - Ohio State @ Michigan - Here we had the Buckeyes as a +3.5 dog and seeing better than 60% of the action.  The number was starting to come down to +3 at most books in a likely attempt to balance out the action a bit more.  60% on any one side with the amount of action coming in on the game is equivalent to 75% or more lopsided.  

Saturday November 18, 2023

9:42 pm - Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs - It's the Game of the Year as Monday night's game is a Super Bowl rematch and it's one of the most wagered on games of the season thus far.  Even with around 58% to 62% of the spread action on Philadelphia, for a game like this, that's akin to 80% on a regular game.  And we have the oddsmakers moving this one to +2.5 across the board Saturday night.  We'll have to wait to see if the action becomes more balanced or the books start taking this one down.  What we do know is we get a number of KC 3.27.  This suggests an accurate line and within this range of 3/2.5/2 that bodes well for the favorite Kansas City.  DraftKings hit the 3 Saturday night. This one was still sitting on the 2.5 heading into Monday and still 60/40 action on the Eagles. We believed KC would have a 58 percent chance of covering here but failed to do so.

Friday November 17, 2023

6:47 pm - Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets - The total on this game had gone from 237.5 to 245.5 with nearly all the action still on the OVER with the closing number.

Sunday November 12, 2023

10:31 am - Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals - Our model doesn't provide any edge for this game but the opinion of oddsmakers is like shouting from the rooftops as they drop the line all the way down to -5.5 from -7 Bengals.  Pinnacle has brought the number down to -6, Americas Bookie to -5.5, Circa -5.5.  We're giving Houston a 58% chance here and would be higher if our model had a better position, which it does not. -5 at BetOnline at 10:53 am.

Saturday November 11, 2023

4:28 pm - Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Bucs - Books appear to be pushing action the Titans way taking the line up from +1 to +2.5 with close to 60% of the action on Tennessee. Bookmaker, Bovada, Circa, BetOnline have all brought the number up to +2.5.  This line was on the money at Bucs -1.  Now we have an overlay of 1.5.  Our models suggest that is good for the dog though.

3:51 pm - Indiana Hoosiers @ Illinois Fighting Illini - This one dropped from -6 Illinois to 4.5 during the hours leading up to this game.  Action was 80% on Indiana at +4.5 but was balanced at +6.  SURPRISE!  Indiana covers in OT.

12:09 am - Georgia Southern @ Marshall - Maybe not the sexiest game of the weekend.  Georgia Southern was seeing better than 75% of the early action and we are seeing the oddsmakers bring this one down from Eagles -3 to -1.5 at Circa.  We actually had Marshall a very slight favorite in a Pick'em.  That suggests a 1.5 to 3 point overlay in addition to the wrong team favored.  All of this bodes well for the underdog.  We have Marshall with a 55% shot.

Thursday November 9, 2023

2:01 pm - Wyoming Cowboys @ UNLV Rebels - The line on this game opened -5 UNLV, moved down to -3.5 and back up to -5.5 by Thursday afternoon.  Action was greater than 90% on the Rebels.  Also the total was seeing better than 80% on the OVER.  

Monday November 6, 2023

11:25 am - LA Chargers @ New York Jets - Trick or treating was last week but the tricks could still be coming Monday night.  This one has all the makings of a trap game. The Sagarin number is Jets 2.73.  The actual line is Jets +3.5 with New York seeing close to 60% of the action overnight Sunday.  This is up from +3.  The early number was +2.5.  Sagarin gives us a number of Jets 2.7, which suggests the wrong team is favored and there is a 4.5 to 5.5 overlay.  Action is mostly balanced heading into Monday afternoon with books taking the number over the 3 to 3.5.  It's rare in football (both NFL and college) for the line to move between 2.5 and 3.5.  Over the course of the last week, however, the line has really gone from 3 to 3.5 with the 2.5 and lower number appearing within the first 24 to 48 hours. Overlays and wrong teams favored in this spot do tend to bode well for the underdogs. The number dropped to -3 across the board after 12:30 pm. 55% and nearly $1 million on average was bet on the Jets at select sportsbooks just prior to game time.  We have the Jets with a 55% shot here. LA ultimately ended up covering the spread.

Sunday November 5, 2023

7:52 pm - Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals - Action was 60% to 65% on the Bengals here yet the line was coming down off the -2 to -1.5.  While accurate lines in the 3/2.5/2 range without crossing over the 3 have been strong for the favorite (the number is Bengals 0.71), the primary line range has been 1.5/2.  As such, this one won't be factoring into our model results for the 3/2.5/2.  Case in point, with a significant enough sample, the accurate line in the 3/2.5 ranger has gone 80% for the favorite.  Also some of the top NFL cappers this season are backing Buffalo.  We are giving the Bills a 57% shot here as a result.  This one really surprised us in the end as Bengals came out on top but oddsmakers really appeared to be big on Buffalo.

10:27 am - Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles - The total was 46.5 at Pinnacle and Circa and 47 at most other books Sunday morning, up from 46 with heavy lopsided action on the OVER.  We're giving the UNDER a 54% chance here and that number would increase if books start bringing the total back down to 46.

10:15 am - Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles - A lot of the top cappers were backing Philadelphia at -3.  Americas Bookie was offering the number at Philadelphia -2.5 with 60% of the early action on the Eagles.  The AcePerHead action was balanced however. 

9:37 am - Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints - New Orleans was seeing heavy lopsided action as a -10 favorite.  The line had moved accordingly from -7.5 to -10. We get a number of 4.98, suggesting a 2.5 to 5 point overlay.  With a limited sampling, this tended to bode somewhat better for the favorite but we're not touching this one.

9:37 am - Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens - The total has moved from 43 to 44 with 75% of the action on the OVER.

Friday November 3, 2023

11:33 pm - Texas A&M Aggies @ Ole Miss Rebels: Ole Miss was seeing 70% of the spread action at -3.  This one has actually come down of the -3.5 and had even hit -2.5 at Bookmaker for a bit (1:30 pm to 5:30 pm Friday). 2.5 was not common.  Sagarin gives us a number of 3.3, putting this one right on the money. The 3/3.5/4 line range with an accurate number tends to bode well for the dog.  If this one drops to 2.5 anywhere in the AM, Aggies will be around a 58% shot to cover.  Currently they were at 54%. That move never happened and Ole Miss ended up with the cover.

10:46 pm - Washington Huskies @ USC Trojans: This week, Sagarin has USC (7-2 Straight Up, 2-7 Against The Spread) the 18th rated team in the nation.  Their ATS record suggests the Trojans are very much underperforming in 2023.  There still seems to be an overlay as we get a number of 0.93 as Washington is ranked No. 15 by Sagarin with their 8-0 record Straight Up and 3-4 Against The Spread.  Here we have a clear overlay of 2 to 3.5 points. In this line range of 3/3.5/4/4.5 without going below the 3, overlays in this range heavily go towards the dog based on our model.   Everyone was still sitting at 3 with 67% of the action on the Huskies as of Friday night.  We did jump on USC here.

Wednesday November 1, 2023

9:39 pm - Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers: The line here had been hovering between Steelers -2.5 and -3 this week.  Titans were seeing 75% of the action.  Sagarin fives us a number of 3.91.  This one is on the money or a 1 point underlay and both tend to favor the favorite in the 3/2.5/2 range when the line does not move above the 3. 

6:37 - Ball State Cardinals @ Bowling Green Falcons: This one featured a total of 40 after opening at 39 with just under 90% of action on the OVER. This one fell to 38 (at Pinnacle) and 76% of the action was on the OVER.  Bookmaker went from 40.5 to 38.5.  Bovada was 40 to 39.5.  We are giving the UNDER a 55 percent shot here.

9:10 am - Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta opened at -8 and dropped to -7.5.  The Hawks were seeing early 88% of the action on the spread. This one dropped as low as -6.

Tuesday October 31, 2023

6:06 pm - Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks: The total on this game was steady at 9.5.  BetOnline moved it down to 9 earlier in the afternoon and Bookmaker moved it to 9 at 5:55 pm ET.  This is a battle of the bullpen game.

1:37 pm - Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan:  Everybody seems to love the Huskies in this one.  No matter how much the oddsmakers move the line (from Northern Illinois -3 to -6), the favorites are still seeing 83% of the action.  Central Michigan has won in this series dating back to 2019 in 3 of 4 meetings, only losing by a single point in the other game.  The two teams are 4-4 Straight Up but the Chippewas are 2-5 Against The Spread (Northern Illinois is 4-4 ATS).  Sagarin had a number of Huskies 4.78.

8:04 am - New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavs: The Knicks line had come down to -2.5 from -3.  Early action was 87% on New York.  Sagarin gives us a number of Cleveland 1.82.  New York is 7-1 in the last eight of this series.  Cleveland has only covered in one of those losses using the current spread. The Cavs injuries (there are four big players out) are not reflected in the Sagarin number.

Monday October 30, 2023

4:56 pm - A little NBA with the Minnesota Timberwolves -2 coming off the -3 with 70%.  That line move is going in the wrong direction.  Hawks deserve a look here as a bit of a live dog. The AcePerhead Pay Per Head internal data (only available at Gambling911) shows Minnesota getting just over 60% of the spread action.  Hawks were a big win here.

9:49 am - Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions: It's possible the sportsbooks will be wrong here but the opinion is obvious that they believe Las Vegas covers.  We're seeing nearly 90% of the action on the Detroit spread yet the line has come down off the 9 to 7.5 across the board.  DraftKings dropped the number to 7.  Pinnacle was at 7.5 as was Circa, coming off the 8.5.  Circa was down to -7 as of 4:31 pm with 83 percent of the action on Detroit.  Pinnacle too. We're giving the Raiders a 63% chance of covering here. Detroit won and covered in the end in a game that definitely hurt the books.

Sunday October 29, 2023

11:20 am - New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: This one had climbed all the way up to 10 at some books and had fallen to Dolphins -8.5 overnight Saturday. BetOnline, Bovada, Circa had all come down to -8.5.  Bookmaker dropped to -9.  Pinnacle was still at -9.5.  Action was 80 percent Dolphins according to AcePerHead internal data (only available to Gambling911 readers).  There is a lean for New England but the Dolphins are 5-1 against them in their last six head-to-heads.  The last two have been within the current spread.  Three of the four prior meetings had Miami winning by more than 8.5 points.  Sagarin gives us a number of 7.72.  It's interesting that hardly any of the books have dipped below the 8.5....Until late on Saturday.  Bookmaker dropped to -8 overnight Saturday.  The AcePerHead Pay Per Head internal action data had Miami seeing 82% and they too had dropped the number down to 8.  All of this is prompting us to list New England at a 59% chance to cover Sunday. Maybe a touchdown win by the Dolphins?  The number dropped from 9 to 8 at BetOnline Sunday morning. Same thing at Bookmaker and Bovada.  Still 8.5 at Pinnacle. You've probably been seeing a lot of green here but this was not one of those games as Miami crushed New England....and us.

12:14 am - Chicago Bears @ LA Chargers: The Chargers were seeing better than 82% of the action overnight Saturday yet books continue to move the line between 8.5 and 9 and back down to 8.5. The AcePerHead internal action data had the public backing LA at just over 80%.  There is no way the books should be moving this number down dangling the 8.5 when we've already had them on the 9 for long stretches.  This is a Sunday night game.  Despite both teams disappointing records, a Sunday Night Football game is going to attract plenty of action.  Circa hasn't moved off the 8.5 all week.  Pinnacle was on the 8.  Sagarin is giving us a number of Chargers 7.88.  One of the top NFL cappers this season, Bobby Babowski, is backing the Chargers here.  All the books suddenly seemed to move the number to 9.5 as of 10:30 am Sunday.

Saturday October 28, 2023

11:02 pm - Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks had climbed to a -3.5 favorite.  Sagarin has Cleveland 0.42 but be mindful that the Sagarin numbers still reflect Deshaun Watson in the lineup but he is out of this game with a shoulder injury.  Overlays in the 3/3.5/4 range without dropping below the 3 tend to heavily go towards the dog.   65% of the betting public was on the Seahawks.  The line has moved from -2.5 to -4. 

1:45 pm - USC Trojans @ California Bears: The line has trended down a half point depending on the book from 11 to 10.5 or 10.5 to 10. With action 70% on USC (80% at Pay Per Head AcePerHead).  The 11 has only held briefly.  BetOnline was 10.5 to 11 the better part of Tuesday through Thursday and was down to 10 Saturday morning. Circa was on the 11 about 45 minutes Friday before holding at 10. Pinnacle was also on 10. Bovada was as well. It's interesting that Sagarin gives us a number of 10.07.  Both teams only have two covers this season thus far.  The last two seasons, California had a win against USC and a cover within the current 10-point spread.  We have California with a 57% chance of covering here.  California did end up covering with a USC 1-point win.

1 pm - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers:  Action on the sides was fairly balanced early on but not so for the total.  We see lopsided action on the OVER at around 75%.  That number climbed from 8.5 to 9 at BetOnline, Bookmaker, Circa, DraftKings, Bovada and pretty much everywhere else.  Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona.  He's 2-1 in the post season with an ERA of 3.29.  In 30 appearances against him, the Rangers have had just four hits and two RBIs (.133).  Kelly is more than capable of pitching into the 7th inning.  Kelly came through in a big way for the Diamondbacks on Monday afternoon, firing five innings of one-run baseball in a victory over the Phillies in Game 6 of the NLCS.   Rangers Jordan Montgomery is 3-0 in the post season and perhaps due for a bad outing.  Diamondbacks hitters have gone up against Montgomery 59 times, resulting in 18 hits and 5 RBIs. Gabriel Moreno is 4-for-7 against him. Montgomery earned a victory out of the Rangers’ bullpen in Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday night, hurling 2 1/3 innings of shutout baseball against the Astros. Jordan Montgomery pitched decently in a no-decision against the Astros in Game 5 of the ALCS before that, allowing just two runs in 5 1/3 innings. The line has gone from -165 to -145 at Bovada, now back up to -150.  The Rangers were seeing 55% of the action at that number compared to under 50% prior.  BetOnline had the number at -160 and dropped to -140, where it sat at 12:09 pm.  Circa went from -151 to -140.  The Diamondbacks should have won Game 1.  They were 3-1 during the regular season against Texas.  

Friday October 27, 2023

5:49 pm - Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets: The total has dropped from 227 at some books to 226.5 despite lopsided action - albeit limited - on the OVER. Bovada dropped to 225.5.  The UNDER looked enticing here.

5:37 pm - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers: Why hasn't the line gotten longer on this one?  It's sitting at -150 with 86% of the action on Texas.  We suggested that Zac Gallen may be due here following two really poor starts.  Bookmaker dropped this one down to -154. BetOnline had dropped the number down to -148. Circa has gone from -167 to -150.

Thursday October 26, 2023

6:50 pm - Tampa Bay Bucs @ Buffalo Bills: Bovada has moved to Buffalo -10 with 75% of the spread action on the Bills. Pinnacle continued to hold at this number.  It did not appear as if any books were going above the 10 an hour prior to game time.  We have moved the Bills chance to cover to 56%.

11:46 am - Syracuse Orange @ Virginia Tech Hokies:  The total was coming in at 47 and up a half point to 47.5.  Consensus cappers were mostly on the UNDER here.  Action was really balancing out as of Thusrday morning and we were seeing limited action on the total thus far.  We are giving West Virginia a 53% of covering here.

Wednesday October 25, 2023

11:30 pm - Tampa Bay Bucs @ Buffalo Bills: The Bills were coming in at -9 with 93% of the action.  On Monday BetOnline had the number at -7.5 and had moved it to -8.5 then -9 by Wednesday evening.  Bookmaker was keeping the number around -8.  Circa had the number at -9 and moved it to -8.5.  Bovada has moved the number up the highest, all the way to -9.5 just after 6 pm ET Wednesday.  They had Buffalo at -7.5 on Monday.  Sagarin has a number of 12.09.  This one was Bills $225K to Bucs $20K overnight, so if you're a sportsbook you'll want to move this line up as much as you can.  In this case that ceiling for now is 10 (Circa, Pinnacle).  Americas Bookie, AcePerHead still had this one at 9 overnight.   We're giving Buffalo a 55% chance as of 11:30 pm ET Wednesday night.

10:40 pm - Syracuse Orange @ Virginia Tech Hokies:  This one could get hot.  The line opened at Virginia Tech -3 at some books.  Bookmaker had this one at -2.5 for a number of hours on Tuesday.  Circa had the 2.5 for just a few minutes. Syracuse is 4-3 Straight Up and 3-3 Against The Spread while Virginia Tech is 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS.  Sagarin is giving us a number of 0.74, indicating a 2-point overlay.  The 2.5/3 with an overlay bodes quite well for the underdog.  Action is lopsided 88% to 90% on Syracuse and it would make more sense for the books to move the number back to 2.5 as the day progresses on Thursday.   It appears oddsmakers believe this one could fall on the 3 based on how quickly some immediately moved back to the 3 off the 2.5.  Bovada was still holding at Syracuse +3.  West Virginia we are giving a 53% chance to cover the spread.

7:01 pm - Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavs: This one was up to Cleveland -2.5 and dropped to -1.5 at Bookmaker minutes before the game's start. DraftKings dropped from -3 to -2.  Action was mostly on the Cavs at around 69%. 

Tuesday October 24, 2023

6:41 pm - Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies: The total has dropped from 8.5 to 8 at Circa despite around 70% of the action coming in on the OVER. This was true of BetOnline, Pinnacle, Bovada and Bookmaker as well. UNDER looks attractive here.

Monday October 23, 2023

12:56 pm - San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings: This one is moving between -6.5 and -7 favoring San Francisco.  Much of the weekend this one was at -6.5 at BetOnline.  83% of the action was on the Vikings overnight Sunday.  Minnesota was really looking like an attractive play here especially if this one continues to move back to -6.5.  Americas Bookie had the number at 7 overnight as did Bovada. Sagarin has a number of 6.82, placing this one right on the money.  As of Monday afternoon, Pinnacle dropped to -6.5 and that's with 70% of the action still on the Vikings.  We could no longer resist a play on Minnesota here.  Bovada was at -7 after dropping to -6.5 briefly.  Minnesota does win outright here.

Sunday October 22, 2023

1:11 pm - Pittsburgh Steelers @ LA Rams: Pittsburgh is 3-2, LA is 3-3.  Steelers are 3-2 Against The Spread.  The Rams are 4-1-1 Against The Spread and we would expect this to correct itself.  The Rams were just sitting at -3.  Rams were seeing 83% of the action. BetOnline has moved to -3.5 overnight and had been shifting back and fourth between the 3 and 3.5.  Bookmaker had been at 3.5 and dropped to 3.  Pinnacle was at 3 overnight.  Circa was at 3 all week. Bovada had moved to 3.5 a few times but was back to 3 overnight.  DraftKings did not come off the 3. Sagarin gives us a number of 0.31 Rams.  That suggests an overlay of 3.  Overlays when the line is 3.5/4 without going under the 3 have been very good to dogs based on our stats.  Pittsburgh is very tempting here.  Bookmaker continued to want you to bet the Rams at -3 even with the dollar amount coming in $400K Rams to $200K Steelers as of 1 pm ET.

Saturday October 21, 2023

11:18 pm - Pay close to attention to the total move on the Chargers-Chiefs game.  Action was 60% or greater on the OVER but oddsmakers have moved the line down from 48.5 to 47.5. The UNDER might be a good play here depending on whether this trend continues and how much money is coming in on the total.

10:18 pm - Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinas: This one was very lopsided overnight favoring Seattle at 95% and thus forcing the line up from Seattle -7.5 to -8.  Circa and Bovada had the number at -8.5 overnight after both opened at -7. The Seahawks have won the last three in this series, two by ten points, another by eight points.  Arizona is 1-5 Straight Up but surprisingly 3-3 Against The Spread. Sagarin gives us a number of 10.61. That suggests a two-point underlay and Seattle does deserve a look here.  Watch if this line drops to -8 or lower as the game approaches.

10:11 pm - Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots: The total on this game has trended from 44 to 40 and we've even see some books bring this one down to 39.5.  57% of the total action was on the UNDER.

9:48 pm - Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens: 63% of the spread action was on the Lions +3.  This one moved up from +2.5 at Bookmaker, DraftKings and BetOnline.  The line was briefly on +2 early on at Bovada and Circa.  It looks like the books are trying to get some additional action on Detroit.  Let's look at where Sagarin has this number.  They have this one at 1.57, suggesting a 1 to 1.5 overlay for Baltimore. Looking at the G911 Sports Hub, six cappers are on Detroit, one is on Baltimore.  That one capper on the Ravens is none other than Bobby Babowski, who's been among the hottest cappers this season in the NFL.  Ravens are a tempting pick if more money pours in on Detroit and the books stay on the 3.  We also have a total seeing 75% of the action on the OVER. Bookmaker had this one from 44 to 41.5 and back up to 43.  BetOnline went from 44.5 to 41.5 and back up to 43.

6:35 pm - Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks: All the action was on the Phillies as a -130 to -128 favorite.  This one just hadn't moved and makes us wonder why the books aren't pushing the line up to -140 or higher in an effort to get more action on Arizona.  In fact, as of 6:30 pm ET, 92% of the moneyline action was on Philadelphia. Zack Wheeler starts for Philly.  He already racked up eight strikeouts over six innings of two-run baseball as he defeated the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of the NLCS last Monday evening in Philadelphia. He has permitted 14 RBIs and 6 homers against these Diamondbacks in their 111 appearances against Wheeler.  Christian Walker is 9 for 19 against him.  Zac Gallen starts for Arizona.  Gallen was knocked around in a losing effort against the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday, surrendering five runs on eight hits over his five innings of work.  Bookmaker at one point dropped the number from -130 to -121.  Circa went all the way down to -119 earlier in the day.  Really loving Arizona here.  The dollar amount wagered was $500K Philadelphia to $50K Arizona just before 7 pm. 

10:07 am - Charlotte @ East Carolina: Nearly 80% of those betting the total are backing the UNDER.  That number has dropped from 41.5 to 40 at Circa.   Pinnacle has also dropped the number to 40.  Bovada has moved the number all the way down to 39.5 having had it as high as 41.5.  FanDuel was at 40.5 Saturday morning.  Unibet briefly had the number as low as 37.  Wind was having an impact on this game.  We opted to make the UNDER our play on the G911 Sports Hub and it came through with the total scored at 17.

9:58 am - South Florida @ UConn: We are seeing a few top cappers backing the OVER 57 in this one.  82% of the public is backing the OVER as well. The total has moved up from 54.5 to 57 with books certainly encouraging the UNDER on this one.  Pretty much every book has boosted the total to 57.  This makes the OVER especially enticing here.  

Friday October 20, 2023

9:48 pm - Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Iowa Hawkeyes:  This one opened Iowa -6 and had dipped to -3.5 overnight Friday.  67% of the spread action was on the Hawkeyes.  Iowa has won the last eight meetings. Sagarin gives us a number of Iowa 11.16, which suggests an underlay of 7.5. 

1:47 pm - Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers: The Rangers have faced Justin Verlander 158 times and only have four home runs to show for it. Verlander pitched well in a losing effort against the Rangers in Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday night, allowing just two runs on six hits over 6 2/3 innings of work.  Early action here was 75% on the UNDER yet the total was trending up from 8.5 to 9.  Only two of the last ten in this overall series has stayed UNDER 9. Rangers starter Jordan Montgomery has given up two homers and five RBIs in Astros 104 at bats.  Montgomery delivered an outstanding performance in a victory over the Astros in Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday night, scattering five hits over 6 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball. We want to caution that most books were still hanging onto the 8.5 as of mid-morning Friday.  By Noon a number of books had moved the number to 9, including Pinnacle and Bovada.  Action was balancing out on the total after 3 pm ET.  This turned into an OVER for many who got down early, a push for everyone else.

4:36 pm - Penn State vs. Ohio State: Action was still 76% on Penn State.  The line has wobbled between 4.5 and 5, mostly -4.5 favoring Ohio State.  CIrca has gone as high as 5.5 and dropped back to -4.5 Friday evening.  This now suggests books are looking to get more action on Ohio State to balance out the money, and thus making the Buckeyes less of an attractive play as earlier in the week.  Ohio State did win and cover the spread. 

Thursday  October 19, 2023

3:25 pm - Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints: Action was balanced on the spread coming into this Thursday Night Football game, however, the UNDER was seeing 60% with a total that has moved from 38.5 to 40.5 in recent days. So basically opposite of where it should be moving.  We've seen the number as high as 43 at Bookmaker.  The OVER is quite enticing here.  And in the end, you had to love this one.  Heading into the 4th quarter we were UNDER a half point but just knew there would have to be some more scoring, and there was.  This one got tied up and we hit the OVER before our Amazon Prime account stopped working.

Wednesday October 18, 2023

6:14 pm - New Mexico State Aggies vs. UTEP Miners total opened 48.5 and dropped to 47.5.  72% of the action was on the OVER here.  Circa opened at 44.5 and moved the number to 49.5 before dropping back to 47.5.

6:08 pm - Florida Intl Golden Panthers vs. Sam Houston St Bearkats total went from 39.5 to 42 with 82 percent on the OVER.  The move shows books are trying hard to get action on the UNDER.

4:51 pm - Penn State vs. Ohio State: 80% or more of the spread betting action was on Penn State early.  That percentage was actually more and was coming down just a bit by mid-week.  The number has trended from -4 to -4.5 (Ohio State) across the board.  So basically the books are encouraging more action on Penn State as the +4.5 dog here. Focus on Ohio State here Folks!

Monday October 16, 2023

6:26 pm - Diamondbacks @ Phillies:  Philadelphia remained a -162 favorite or around that number throughout despite around $250K (88%) coming in on the Phillies.  One would assume the line would move upwards closer to the -180. 68% of the total action was on the UNDER with both Bookmaker and Bovada moving the number from 7.5 to 7.

Sunday October 15, 2023

10:21 am - Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets:  Interesting.  The line has trended from 6 to 7 across the board as the 75% or greater of the spread action flows in on the Eagles.  Yet as of Sunday morning, a number of books including BetOnline, Bovada, Circa and Bookmaker were dangling the 6.5 in what appeared an obvious attempt to get more money on Philadelphia.  Pinnacle also held the number at 6.5. We would never have guessed this one would end with our beloved Jets winning outright.  J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS.

12:27 am - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: Jaguars were seeing 76% of the betting action as a -3.5 favorite.  BetOnline had this one coming down off the -4.5 to -3.5. From 3 pm to around 11 pm ET Saturday Bookmaker brought this line down to -3.5 before moving back up to the 4.  The number had reached as high as 5 for a few hours midweek. Bovada was mostly on the 3.5 from Saturday afternoon onward.  Jacksonville covers.

12:13 am - New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans - The total on this game has moved up from 40.5 to 42.5 with 85% of the action on the UNDER.

Saturday October 14, 2023

7:31 pm - The Jaguars-Colts game looks intriguing Sunday.  Here we have nearly 75% of the spread action on Jacksonville at -3.5 after opening at -5.5.  Books seem to be begging folks to take the Jaguars early on.  Jacksonville is 3-1 in the last four games of this series.  Sagarin does have the number at Jaguars 6.12, so at -3.5 there is a likely underlay of 2.5.  Jaguars did end up winning and covering in this one.

7:27 pm - Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies - Depending on when you got down on the Ducks, you either pushed or covered the spread.  Some books briefly had this line at 2.5, which presented an excellent middling opportunity.

1:33 pm - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers  - 61% of the spread action was on Wisconsin as a -9.5 favorite against the Hawkeyes.  The money amount was approaching $100,000 for the Badgers.  BetOnline was as high as -10 and dropping to -8.5 for about an hour Saturday morning.  Bookmaker was back up to -9.5.  Bovada was sitting on the -9.  Americas Bookie had the number at 9, which is still attractive for Hawkeyes backers. 

11:35 am - We see that the number was coming in at -4.5 for Rutgers as of Saturday morning, trending down from -5.  60% of the action went Rutgers way as of 11 am ET with that percentage was as high as 70% overnight.  The spread came in as high as -6.5 earlier in the week. The line is right on the money according to Sagarin (5.2).  Across the board, Pinnacle included, sites had dropped the number to -4.5, against the action coming in.  Just minutes before this game we had the number drop all the way down to Rutgers -3.5 with what appears to have been heavy money rolling in during the final hour that's brought the cash percentage down to 55% for the Scarlett Knights even with 75% of tickets on Rutgers.  Most books moved this one to -4.

Friday October 13, 2023

10:01 am - Are we over the Buffs yet?  Evidentally not!  The betting public is all over Colorado at an 85% to 87% clip as of Friday morning as they host Stanford.  This wasn't a heavily wagered on game yet as around $70K of the action was on Colorado compared to just $15K on Stanford.  It's still lopsided.  The target number is 11.56 (Sagarin) and that's exactly where we are at.  This one has moved from 11.5 to 12 favoring the Buffaloes.  More importantly perhaps, oddsmakers have touched the 11 at times for very brief periods before jumping quickly back to 11.5.  Circa shifted to the 11 on three occasions.  The first two times they moved off that number within a minute.  On Thursday they were holding at 11 for nearly five hours before moving back to 12.5, which they've been sitting on for nearly 24 hours. Bookmaker also moved to the 12 but most books were still sitting on the 11.5 as of Friday morning.  Remember, this game goes off Friday night.  Recreational book Bovada was one that moved to the 12.5 as well.  That's likely going to be the trend throughout the afternoon Friday.  Watch to see if books like Pinnacle, Circa and Bookmaker dip back down to 12 and 11.5 if action is still heavy on the Buffs.  This could be an indication they believe Stanford is going to cover.  Books had mostly moved to 13 just two hours leading up to this game with more than 75% still on the Buffs.  Shortly after 8 pm Bookmaker began driving this line down to 12 with Colorado still seeing around 75% of the action.  BetOnline and DraftKings moved to -12.5.  Pinnacle and Circa were still holding at -13 as was Bovada. Greater than $500K was backing Colorado.  In the end, Stanford looked left for dead after the first half, down four touchdowns and scoreless only to mount the greatest comeback in school history and beat Colorada by a field goal in overtime.

Thursday October 12, 2023

10:01 am - Have you seen this line movement?  90% on the Chiefs -10.5 with nearly $450,000 compared to roughly $50,000 on the Broncos Thursday night!  Oh, and the line is coming down off the 11.  Some of our favorite cappers are on Denver here as well.  So unless all the experts calculations are off here, Broncos are way too enticing to pass up at +10.5 or +11, whatever number you get them at.  There is a good chance some books will move back to the 11 to drive a little more action towards Denver prior to game time Thursday night.  This one closed across the board at +10.5 Broncos with Denver seeing just over $700K and Denver $1.7 million. Just WOW on this one if Denver does NOT cover.  And they failed to do so by a half point. It's interesting to note, as soon as a book touched the 11 on Thursday, they immediately backed off to the 10.5 within about three minutes.

Wednesday October 11, 2023

3:29 pm - Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins: $129,397 (94%) of the total action was on the OVER.  The number had sat at 8 until around 2:30 pm when most books shifted the number to 8.5 in an obvious attempt to get some action on the UNDER.  Should the total start dropping back to 8, consider the UNDER here.

3:07 pm - Sam Houston St vs. New Mexico State: The line on this game opened -6 New Mexico State and had dropped to -3.5.  Action was around 65% on the Aggies.  Sagarin gives us a number of 4.16. The St Bearkats may be 0-6 Straight Up but they are 4-1-1 Against The Spread.  Bottom line is the line is moving in the wrong direction.  Granted there's not a ton of money on this game early.  We'll be on Sam Houston State here.

2:53 pm - UTEP @ FAU: Should we consider a bet on UTEP Wednesday night as they are facing Florida International? Across the board the line has moved from FAU -1 to -2.5 with most books beginning to hit the 3.  Just 12% of the spread action was on the Miners as of mid-afternoon Wednesday.  But it's not just about percentages.  Nearly $200K had been bet on FAU compared to barely $30,000 on the Miners.  Pinnacle was one of the books on the 3.  In the end, we need to be careful here if considering going against Florida Internation.  That's because Sagarin has the line at 12.26

Tuesday October 10, 2023

8:29 pm - Liberty at -7 was being embraced by some of the more successful sports handicappers in their game against Jacksonville State.  The Flames entered this one undefeated while the Gamecocks had one loss under their belt. Action was balanced with the line on the 7.  The line only moved up a half point off the 6.5.  Liberty went on to win and cover.

Monday October 9, 2023

7:48 pm - Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders: This line dropped from Raiders -2.5 to -1 with 61% of the action on the Packers.  Bovada had dropped to -1.5.  The line on this game had been moving up until just after 5 pm ET.  This was a Raiders win and cover.

4:03 pm - Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers - There are some signals for the UNDER 8 and Arizona.  The Dodgers line has gone down from -174 to -154 but most books were not seeing significant line movements and Bovada was back up to -159. Four of the last five games Zac Gallen has started in for Arizona have resulted in 8 or fewer runs scored. The total opened at 8.5 with very little volume prior to dropping to the 8. 

2:37 pm - Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders: The Packers were seeing 62% of the spread action and around $250,000 by mid-afternoon.  Green Bay was coming in as the +2 dog.  They were previously a -2 favorite but nominal action was coming in at that point.  As of 11 am ET Monday, DraftKings had moved the number up to Packers +2.5.  Circa was also up to +2.5 but back down to the 2 shortly after 1 pm.  Las Vegas, star Raiders receiver Davante Adams did not practice on Thursday or Friday due to a shoulder injury but the All-Pro receiver did begin practicing again on Saturday and should be ready to go. Sagarin suggests the wrong team is favored here as they have Green Bay -1.49.  Raiders do look enticing in this situation.

11:00 am - This week's NFL lines released. 

Thursday, October 12

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10½)                                                                                                                                

Sunday, October 15

Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Tennessee Titans 

Washington at Atlanta (-2)

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)     

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Cleveland Browns                          

New Orleans Saints (-2½) at Houston Texans

Minnesota Vikings (-3½) at Chicago Bears  

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4½)  

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-14)      

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-2½)

Detroit Lions (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers     

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6)        

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at New York Jets                  

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-14½)            

Monday, October 16

Dallas Cowboys (-2½) at Los Angeles Chargers 

*These odds courtesy of BetOnline

Sunday October 8, 2023

5:54 pm - Travis Kelce was having x-rays taken on his right foot just prior to halftime of the Chiefs-Vikings game late afternoon Sunday.  Kelce hurt his right foot/leg on this play (below), a non-contact injury, and then headed to the locker room.  The line on Thursday night's Broncos-Chiefs game opened at KC -10.5.  Should Kelce be unable to play Thursday, this line will drop. Chiefs fans and bettors breathed a sigh of relief as Kelce returned to the field after halftime.  He'd be worth at least 2 points on the line, probably more.

4:51 pm - Here are some lines for the next week's college football games. NC State +3.5 Duke, Missouri +2.5 Kentucky, MSU +6 Rutgers, Miami +4 UNC, Ohio State -20 Purdue, Oregon +3.5 Washington, UCLA +5 Oregon State, Auburn +11.5 LSU, Iowa +9.5 Wisconsin, Kansas -3.5 Oklahoma State, KSU +1 Texas Tech.  Check out the new odds feed, provided by our friends at AcePerHead. 

4:46 pm - San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys: This one had pretty balanced action but the OVER is seeing 63% of the action.  That's been pretty consistent.  There is no real movement in this number (45) to get us excited.

1:07 pm - Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings: 62% and over $400K of the spread money was coming in on the Chiefs in their game versus the Vikings. The number had come all the way off the -5.5 and was mostly sitting at -3.5 the hours leading up to this game.  By 1 pm, these were your line moves: BetOnline -3, Pinnacle -3.5, Bookmaker -3.5, Circa -3.5, Bovada -3.5, BetUS -3.5.

10:28 am - Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros: Total action was still limited as of Sunday morning.  Nearly all books were holding at 8 and as much as 90% of the volume had been coming in on the UNDER.  Interestingly, Circa Sports dropped this number down to 7.5, an indication we could see an UNDER.  This bears monitoring.

9:45 am - Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions: One of the more lopsided games in terms of spread betting, Detroit still had around 85% of the public support.  The number dropped from -9.5 to -9 Sunday and that's serving to drive even more action the Lions way.  Currently they were just under $500K.  The number climbed as much as 10.  Pinnacle still had the number at 10.  Bookmaker has held this one at 9 since Friday. Circa dropped this one to -8.5 just after 9 am.  Carolina looks to get its first cover today and this could be that day. Ten minutes before game time: BetOnline -9, Bookmaker -9 to -9.5, DraftKings -9.5, Circa -9.5, Pinnacle -10, Bovada -9.5.  Ultimately Carolina failed to cover.  They will enter Week 6 without a win Straight Up and no cover either.  See: Bovada From North Carolina

9:41 am - Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons: While there is close to 90% of the total action on the OVER, the number hasn't exactly moved swiftly.  We've seen the total move from 41 to 42 most books.  Pinnacle had the total at 42 Sunday morning.  Bookmaker did move up to 42.5.

Saturday October 7, 2023

10:33 pm - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (London Game): Bills were seeing 63% of the spread action overnight (nearly $500K compared to $250K for Jax).  Circa was a bit of an outlier dropping the line from Buffalo -5 to -4.5 at 10:28 pm Saturday night.  This does make the Jaguars a bit of an enticing play. Bovada had also dropped this one to 5 shortly after 9:15 pm. Pinnacle was still sitting on the 5.5.  Sagarin has the number at Bills 8.16, indicating a 3.5 underlay. Jags were up five points in the top of the 4th quarter.  This was looking like we should have jumped on Jacksonville.  Jags win 25-20.  See: PrizePicks Florida - Bovada New York - Circa Sports News

9:07 pm - Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings: Sagarin gives us a line of -8.48 favoring KC, which indicates an underlay of between 3 and 5 points.  These underlays where the line hits the 3.5 without going under 3 tend to perform well for the favorite whereas oddsmakers appear to have an opinion on Minnesota covering here based on the line movement.  With 80% lopsided action on Kansas City one would think the line would move upwards to encourage more action on the Vikings.  As of Saturday night pretty much all the books were hitting KC -3.5, down from 5.5.  See: Could the Vikings Cover the Spread Against The Chiefs This Week? - Bovada Missouri - DraftKings Minnesota

7:49 pm - New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins: Books reacting aggressively as heavy lopsided action coming in on Miami.  This line has moved from Dolphins -9 to -13.  This one has "blowout" written all over it but we shall see.   

7:44 pm - Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions: 90% of the spread action was still coming in on the Lions.  Bookmaker dropped the line from Detroit -10 to -9.  Circa was holding at -9 since early afternoon Saturday.

4:39 pm - New York Jets @ Denver Broncos: The line has moved from Broncos -1.5 to -2.5 with 83% of the action on the Jets.  The line on this game should probably be moving down, not up. Sagarin gives us a number of Jets 5.16. 

4:25 pm - Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals: The line has moved from Bengals -5.5 to -3 with a few books flirting with the 2.5. 55% to 60% of the action was on Cincinnati Saturday.  Pinnacle was holding at Cincinnati -3.  Sagarin gives us a number of Bengals 6.89, indicating an underlay of 4.  An underlay like this with the line hitting 3.5 but not going below the 3 is solid for the favorite (Cincinnati) but the indication is that oddsmakers like Arizona to cover in this one.

4:14 pm - Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions: 90% of the spread action was on Detroit with the line trending from -9 to -10 Lions.   The line had come down off the -10 to -9 at Bookmaker and elsewhere.  Carolina is yet to cover this season. They have not won outright either.  Sagarin gives us a number of 10.26 on this game.

4:09 pm - Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons: 84% of the action was on the OVER 41.5 with the number not moving up much. Bookmaker had taken it up to 42.

3:57 pm - Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Longhorns: This was a strong opinion play, strongest of the college football slate this week as books encouraged betting on the public favorite Longhorns.  This one ended with 68% of the spread action on Texas.  The Sooners not only covered but won this game outright. Bovada was one of the only books to bring this one down to -3.5.

2:30 pm - Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros: With 83% of the action on the Astros, books continued moving the line down from Houston -155 to -140.  Pinnacle had the number at -138. DraftKings dropped from -162 to -148.  Bovada was as high as -170 and dropped to -145. Circa moved from -156 to -138.  The books appear to be begging gamblers to take Houston here.  We'll jump on the Twins.

1:37 pm - Colorado Buffaloes @ Arizona State Sun Devils:  This line has dropped from Colorado -4 to -3 with 65% of the action on the Buffs at 1:36 pm ($200K bet on the Colorado spread).  Pinnacle was at -3.  BetOnline has been at -3 since 12:30 pm.  Bookmaker was at -3.5 but had the line at -5.5 earlier in the week.  Circa moved to -3.  Sagarin has Colorado -3.5 to -4.  Books appear to have an opinion on Arizona State covering the spread. Colorado ended up winning by a field goal with most folks winning with ASU at +3.5 or above much of the week and others, like us, pushing.

1:03 pm - Washington State Cougars @ UCLA Bruins: The line on this game had moved from -3 to -3.5 UCLA at BetOnline Friday.  BetOnline continued to hold at this number.  Circa was holding at -3.  Bookmaker moved to -3.5 at 11:30 am.  Bovada has been holding at 3.5 since Friday.  Pinnacle was holding at 3.5.  Action was 61% on the OVER, up from 53% most books. Bets on UCLA were close to $250K. Most books looking to drive more action on Washington State.  See: Bovada Washington - FanDuel California

12:44 pm - Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles: Line has dropped from Orioles -145 to -129 at Bookmaker despite nearly 80% of the action on Baltimore.  Circa dropped from -142 to -132.  Kyle Bradish has only faced the Rangers batters 48 times.  Despite the low sampling, Bradish enjoyed success with just 8 hits and 2 RBIs (.167).  He surrendered zero home runs. Andrew Heaney will start for Texas.  Orioles batters are 19 for 71 against him with 15 RBIs and 7 home runs.  See: Texas Rangers Betting Trends - Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends - FanDuel Texas

12:37 pm - Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles: The total on this game remained at 8 with the OVER seeing 68%, down from 87% overnight and approaching $100,000 bet on the OVER.  BetOnline had dropped to 7.5 just after 11 am. Bookmaker had dropped to 7.5.  Bovada had moved to 7.5.  DraftKings and Circa were still holding at 8.  Action was 55% on the UNDER 8 after 12:45 pm.  As such books were reacting by moving to the 7.5. 

12:04 pm - Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Longhorns:  The line on this game moved from a high of -7 Texas at Bovada all the way down to -4.5 at Pinnacle.  Keep in mind that 75% of the spread action (around $300K) was on the Longhorns on Friday.  By Saturday early morning this amount was closer to $550K with 68% of the action on Texas and the line moving to -4.5 most books.  Pinnacle was still holding at -4.5 Saturday morning.  Bookmaker was at -5 but had come off the -5.5 and -6.  BetOnline was at -4.5.  Bovada had dropped to -4.5.  This one dropped to -4 at most books an hour prior to the game, including Bookmaker. 68% of the action was on Texas at this number with the closing amount bet on Texas at $1.2 million.  All indications suggested a strong opinion on Oklahoma.  Sagarin had Texas -2.5 as both teams sit among the Top 5 of their ratings.  See: Could the Sooners Cover the Spread vs. Texas Longhorns? - PrizePicks Texas - MyBookie Texas - FanDuel Oklahoma

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