What Are the Odds of Robert Kennedy Jr. Becoming the Next US President?

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:

When it was revealed this past week that Robert Kennedy, Jr. had mustered as much as 19 percent of support according to some polls, eyebrows were certainly raised.

In late April, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll found that 14 percent of those inclined to support current US President Joe Biden back Kennedy, Jr.

Since that time, a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll shared with The Hill on June 16 showed he held 15% of the support among Democrats. 21 percent of respondents saying they have a positive view of him. 

He was listed with the 34th shortest odds of receiving the Democratic nomination at 10-1 for a payout potential of $1000 for every $100 bet and, while he's dropped from the 3rd shortest odds, RFK's price improved from 14-1. 

California Governor Gavin Newsom is now stealing much of the thunder at 6-1 odds, roaring ahead of Kennedy Jr.


Kennedy Jr. had the 5th shortest odds of becoming President at 30-1, only behind Biden (+125), former US President Donald Trump (+225), Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (+450), and the current Vice President Kamala Harris (25-1).

RFK, an attorney, is best known for his famous last name as well as a supporter of various conspiracy theories.

Among the Democratic candidates, Biden gets 67 percent of support, Kennedy stands at 14%, and self-help author Marianne Williamson is at 5%. Another 13% are undecided.

"In 2020, Joe Biden received more votes than any other president in U.S. history, yet the poll tells us that those same voters are open to other Democrats to wage a spirited primary," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told USA Today. "Kennedy, although a long shot at this point, starts in double digits and can't be ignored."

Kennedy, Jr. appeared on Michael Smerconish's CNN program Saturday morning.  His audience survey resulted in 75% believing he was not a threat to Biden's reelection.  However, that's still 25% who think he is, greater than that 14% or 19% number mentioned above.


What's Next for Tucker?

The shock still hasn't quite worn off.  Fox News fired its highest rate host - the highest rated host in cable news actually - and BetOnline was quick to release odds on where Tucker Carlson would end up next.

Tucker's Next Media Job

Tucker Carlson's Next Media Job                      

OANN               2-1

Rumble             3-1

Breitbart           4-1

Newsmax         5-1

Netflix              16-1

Amazon Prime  20-1

ABC                  25-1

CBS                  25-1

Truth Social      25-1

Politico             30-1

Axios                40-1

NBC/MSNBC     40-1

CNN                 50-1

“OMG wait till everyone sees what [Carlson] has planned,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), a pal of the former Fox News host, tweeted on Friday.

We are hearing that Newsmax wants to give Carlson more than just his own show, but also the power to determine other programming on the conservative network.

But both the BetOnline favorite, OAN, and Newsmax continue to lose their reach.  Here in Miami Beach, for example, Newsmax was pulled off the Breezeline cable programming late last year. DirecTV announced the decision to drop OAN in January 2022.

Carlson won't head over to CNN or MSNBC either.  He's already been fired from those networks prior to joining Fox News.

The payout for Carlson from Fox is likely contingent upon him not joining any network deemed a threat to the Rupert Murdoch owned network.

Mediaite suggests his return to a more independent venture.

In 2010, they note, Carlson co-founded the conservative blog The Daily Caller.

More likely, he will start his own.

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

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