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Mideast Arab Uprisings Odds: Over 40% of Gamblers Believe Gadhafi Out by End of April

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Mar/28/2011
Gadhafi

With the opposition in Libya now claiming more cities on their march to Tripoli, the gambling public at intrade.com is feeling more confident that Moammar Gadhafi will be toppled prior to April 30, though the percentage of backing is still under 50 percent (41%). 

After falling to around 62 percent two weeks ago, 73.5 percent of the prediction market is now backing Gadhafi’s ouster by year’s end. 

This is among the most wagered on events at intrade.com.

One gambler commented:  “Whoever is selling several thousand dollars worth of shares at 73.8 has sucked all the life out of this market.”

Perhaps the Gadhafis themselves are hedging their bets?

Libyan rebels over the weekend took control of Ras Lanuf and the strategic oil-rich city of al-Brega on Sunday.  Now they have their eyes set on Sirte, Gadhafi’s birthplace. 

"The rebels are making their advance and no one is stopping them. And no one is even talking to them or saying, 'Where are you going?' or 'Why are you taking offensive positions and attacking the Libyan army and Libyan cities?'" Moussa Ibrahim, a Libyan government spokesman, told reporters in Tripoli.

Markets have since opened on other Mideast Arab nation uprisings.  Close to 100 percent of the betting market believes that Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh will leave power by year’s end. 

Bashar al-Assad (President of Syria) (2 Markets) – 33 percent chance of leaving power by year’s end.

Abdelaziz Bouteflika (President of Algeria) (2 Markets) – 18 percent chance of leaving power by year’s end.

Khalifa Bin Salman Al Khalifa (Prime Minister of Bahrain) (2 Markets) – 45.3 percent chance of leaving power by year’s end.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Supreme Leader of Iran) (2 Markets) – 13.3 percent chance of leaving power by year’s end.

Nouri al-Maliki (Prime Minister of Iraq) (2 Markets) – 15 percent chance of leaving power by year’s end.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (President of Iran) (2 Markets) – 14.6 percent

Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud (King of Saudi Arabia) (2 Markets) – 10 percent

Ali Abdullah Saleh (President of Yemen) (2 Markets) 95 percent chance of leaving power

Abbas El Fassi (Prime Minster of Morocco) (2 Markets) – 0 percent chance at this time.

Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

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