Trump Announces End of Military Operations Against Iran Betting Odds

US President Donald Trump announcing the end of military operations in Iran by July 15 witnessed reduced chances from as much as 64% overnight to a 41% chance by Tuesday morning at the betting prediction market Polymarket. 

Trump announced a cease fire between Israel and Iran late Monday only to have it seemingly collapse overnight. By Tuesday morning, the US president insisted the cease fire was still on. 

On June 16, Israel launched blistering attacks on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure, deploying warplanes and drones previously smuggled into the country to assault key facilities and kill top generals and scientists

Israel asserted the barrage was necessary before its adversary got any closer to building an atomic weapon, although experts and the U.S. government have assessed that Iran was not actively working on such a weapon before the strikes.

Iran retaliated by firing waves of ballistic missiles at Israel, where explosions flared in the skies over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities.  The two nations continuing firing missiles at one another throughout Monday and the hours after initial reports of a cease fire. 

While both Iran and Israel have acknowledged the shaky ceasefire, no details have emerged about the terms of the deal or what concessions either side may have made.

Trump issued a blunt warning to Israel on Tuesday to “not bomb Iran” as he departed for the NATO summit in The Hague, taking a critical position just 24 hours after brokering the deal.