Gaddafi Odds of Leaving Power Now at 70 Percent

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Mar/22/2011
Gaddafi Odds

The betting public at intrade.com has pushed Muammar al-Gaddafi’s odds of losing power in Libya by year’s end to 70 percent as the dictator becomes more and more defiant while a coalition force “no fly zone” is enforced.

Gaddafi made his first televised appearance since the bombing mission began.

Late Tuesday, the Libyan leader unleashed one of his more vitriol rants. 

"We shall not surrender and we shall not fear passers by. We jeer at their missiles. These are passing missiles.

"In the short term, we will beat them. In the long term, we will beat them.

"The most powerful air defence, the most powerful air defence is the people. Here are the people. Gaddafi is in the middle of the people. This is the air defence.

"I do not fear storms that sweep the horizon, nor do I fear the planes that throw black destruction. I am resistant, my house is here in my tent... I am the rightful owner, and the creator of tomorrow. I, I am here! I am here! I am here!"

But for just how long? 

The prediction market has expressed slow optimism that Gaddafi will be gone in the coming months.  The likelihood had dropped below 70 percent early last week to around 60 percent. 

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told ABC News Tuesday that those claiming to be close to Gaddafi were reaching out to other nations asking for an “escape strategy”.

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

 

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