Can John McCain Win? The Payout Would Be Enormous

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
John McCain

At 4 to 1 odds (+400) a John McCain US Presidential win would be huge. A $100 bet would pay out $400. But odds are odds and both the prediction markets and national polls have Democratic Senator Barack Obama as a virtual lock at -700.

So the question is: Can John McCain win? Is he worth at least a small bet?

Consider this: had John McCain at 6/1 odds to win the Republican Presidential nomination at a time when his campaign was left for dead. Everyone else had already given McCain much longer odds. Eventually, caved in and listed the Arizona Senator with 15 to 1 odds. The rest is history.

McCain is the "comeback kid" even if he is 72 years young.

While Obama enjoys a pretty substantial cushion, McCain still has a few tricks up his sleeve.

Pennsylvania - It's a must win state and the Governor of Pennsylvania this week issued a dire warning to the Obama camp. "Get your candidate back here!" The reason: McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, and even his wife, Cindy, have been relentless touring the state. The Governor seems to know something the rest of the public does not - that McCain is starting to cut the lead there.

Socialism - Palin is using the "S" word now and applying it to Senator Obama. While Palin stopped short of calling Obama a "socialist" in an interview with CNN this week, she's drawing the parallels based on a remark Obama made to the now legendary "Joe the Plumber" while in Ohio. He told Joe "we need to spread the wealth around" and Palin took that to mean an Obama administration will be moving away from capitalism.  

Biden - We knew it was coming - that long awaited infamous "gaffe" from Obama running mate, Joe Biden. This week Biden suggested that "Obama would face a ‘generated crisis' and McCain has jumped all over that remark. He got back to basics, questioning whether Obama was qualified to handle national security issues.

The Economy - Ironically, it was the economy that probably helped propel Obama in the polls. Perceptions that the economy has already hit rock and is ready to rebound could help McCain in the very short time left until Election Day. It was McCain who said "The fundamentals of our economy are sound". Maybe he was right? Doubtful...but if the perception is there.

The Dreaded October Surprise - You've probably read about it. bin Laden is finally captured, Iran attacks Israel, another terrorist attack. Any shift in momentum - especially when it comes to national security - could help McCain.


Christopher Costigan, Publisher

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