Betting Exchange Says 87 Percent Chance of Republicans Taking Over House

Written by:
Aaron Goldstein
Published on:
Oct/18/2010

The online betting exchange intrade.com has 87 percent of the betting action in favor of a Republican majority takeover in the House of Representatives come Election Day next month. 

Prediction markets have proven highly accurate especially as they pertain to political elections.

From Wikipedia:

Steven Gjerstad (Purdue) in his paper "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," has shown that prediction market prices are very close to the mean belief of market participants if the agents are risk averse and the distribution of beliefs is spread out (as with a normal distribution, for example). Justin Wolfers (Wharton) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth) have obtained similar results, and also include some analysis of prediction market data, in their paper "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities” In practice, the prices of binary prediction markets have proven to be closely related to actual frequencies of events in the real world.

The Republicans are currently well ahead in raising campaign.  Case in point, Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle reported raising a whopping $14 million in the critical third quarter, according to Fox News.

To that extent, Intrade.com had Angle a 60 percent likelihood of beating Democrat Harry Reid, who was once well ahead in the polls. 

Meanwhile, Christine O’Donnell was diminished to having a 7 percent chance of being elected in the much-watched Delaware Senate race. – Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com reporting.

Politics News

Worst Kept Secret: Biden 2020, Latest Odds

Worst Kept Secret: Biden 2020, Latest Odds

Former US Vice President Joe Biden has "almost" made it official.  He's running for President for 2020.

Bernie Sanders Moves to the Top of the Pack

Bernie Sanders Moves to the Top of the Pack

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is now favored to win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 U.S. Presidential race following a highly rated Fox News Town Hall.

Political Betting Markets Now Favor Buttigieg as Biden Falls Out of Favor

Political Betting Markets Now Favor Buttigieg as Biden Falls Out of Favor

Second woman steps forward to say former VP touched her inappropriately

Brexit Hell: Latest Odds

Brexit Hell: Latest Odds

Brexit exit dates in 2019 at 1/10 odds most books

Brexit - No 2nd EU Referendum Say Oddsmakers

Brexit - No 2nd EU Referendum Say Oddsmakers

Theresa May was set to rule out a no-deal Brexit to stave off rebellion and avoid a rebellion by members of parliament, who are threatening to grab control of the divorce process, The Sun and Daily Mail newspapers reported.

Syndicate