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A well-known rule in sports betting history has been ‘don’t be afraid of the underdog’. However, that isn't always the case.
Often times, betting on the underdog won’t yield profits. When it comes to a sport like baseball, it can be downright dangerous for the sports bettor.
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Online bookies should be careful about how much money goes one way or another for every bet, underdog or not. But for the sports bettor, taking the underdog in every situation in every sport isn’t always a good strategy.
The public isn’t always wrong. Sometimes, the public knows exactly what way a game may go. Sports bettors can make money betting on favorites.
A lot of this has to do with the odds. There is a misconception in the sports betting industry that value always means betting on the underdog. What value means is finding fair odds.
For example, If American Pharoah is at 1 to 2 to win the Belmont Stakes, he could constitute as much value based on handicapping as Frosted at 5 to 1.
Value has everything to do with perception. An underdog may not necessarily be an underdog that offers value. This is especially true in baseball where pitchers, ballpark OPS, and bullpens have so much say in the outcome of a game.
Which bet constitutes value if Seattle’s Felix Hernandez is on the road versus the Chicago White Sox and Chris Sale? What if the odds were like what’s below?
- Seattle Mariners -105
- Chicago White Sox-155
For online bookies, this could be a perfect scalping opportunity. But for the sports bettor, this is a tough game to find true value. The Mariners and Hernandez at -105 appears like value. But what if Sale is undefeated in his last 10 starts at home? What if Sale holds the Mariners to a .224 batting average?
In that case, it’s Sale and the White Sox that may constitute value to the sports bettor because after handicapping the odds are better than fair odds. The key for the sports bettor is not to make bets on underdogs. Instead, make value bets.
Now that you know how sports bettors respond to the underdog and finding value bets, you can use this information to help grow your online bookie business. Try PayPerHead.com’s premium bookie software today.
