2014 NFL Season Win Totals Best Bets and Picks
Tony George of www.tonygeorgesports.com has his 2014 NFL season win totals picks.
Cantor and LVH in Vegas released their win totals for the season and we look at some Over and Unders on Season Wins Totals as my Best Bets for the upcoming Season. I have sifted through numerous stats, one of them turnover ratios, which tend to reverse from year to year for many teams, because at days end, it is turnovers and penalties that really determine the vast amount of NFL Games. Look at last year for instance and my best bet Winner Kansas City over 7 wins. They did a complete turnaround on turnovers and also had a better coach and better QB which resulted in an easy 2 Unit Best Bet of the season in 2013 for myself and my clients as KC ripped off 9 straight before finally losing but making the Playoffs for an easy futures bet winner. These are REGULAR Season wins gents, not post season.
These are my Best Bets with my Top Play listed first. I strongly suggest you wager these early and now before they mature and the lines start to move, because gents a half game or full game swing is a HUGE difference in value.
Best Bet 2 Units
BUFFALO BILLS OVER 6.5 Wins at -130
I expect a small regression from the Patriots in this division and also people are high on Miami while I am not and the Jets are still a train wreck at quarterback. Add in Sammy Watkins at WR, a serious rookie game changer, a healthy QB position this year, Spiller at RB is a stud, and the NFL’s 10th best overall defense from last year, and Rich Stadium is a tough place to play on top of all of that and I see a 8 to 9 win team here with no issues at all. A decent schedule in their favor as well. Buffalo has good special teams and are well coached and I fully expect with a good QB situation this year, the NFL’s 28th ranked pass offense will improve vastly and the Bills win 8 to 9 games.
NY Giants OVER 7.5 Wins at -135 (1 Unit)
The Giants and Eli Manning could not have had a worse year than 2013. I fully expect their turnover issues to reverse, and fully expect their running game to improve from 29th and fully expect Eli Manning to have a vastly better year. Add in the injury issues they had in 2013, especially on defense, and Tom Coughlin being one of the most under rated coaches in the NFL. In fact their division is winnable and I see Philly falling back, Dallas being Dallas as usual and Washington is a huge question mark. I will gladly take the Giants to go over the 7.5 wins this season. I see them at 9-7, but seriously doubt they fall below 8-8 and be a sub .500 ball club 2 years in a row.
Seattle Seahawks UNDER 11 Wins at EVEN ODDS (1 Unit)
Pretty simple here, it is tough to repeat. You are on top of the mountain with a chip on your shoulder and everyone wants to knock you off. Also when you look at their division, San Fran is awesome, Arizona is on the rise and Jeff Fisher will have the Rams playing better football this year, a brutal division where anyone can win any week of the season in conference action. Then you add in the fact they will get everyone’s best shot being the defending champs and I think they are overvalued this year. 10 wins yes, 11 wins, too many. Remember they had a ton of close games on the road last season where everything went their way, that rarely repeats itself, I have seen it time and time again over my 22 years of capping games and futures bets.
Green Bay Packers UNDER 10 Wins +125 (1 Unit)
Public darling much like the Cowboys. What does Green Bay have this season? Basically their best player is Aaron Rogers, and he is no doubt a stud but what do they have to carry this inflated number? The Packer defense is below average at best ranked 25th last year and overall Green Bay allowed more points than they scored in 2013 and yet they carry a 10 win expectation? Look at their division, the Bears are the best team, Detroit is solid and under a new coach with a brutal defense, and Minny will remain even with last year’s team, perhaps slightly better and the Packers non-conference schedule is littered with landmines. 9 wins at best in my opinion with a weak defense.
FINAL NOTE – Cleveland Browns at 7 wins over / under. NO PLAY FOR ME, BUT LOTS OF ACTION IN VEGAS
This line opened at 6 and it is at 6.5 or 7 in many shops now. I spoke with and did my radio show on Yahoo Sports with one of the head guys at Cantor Gaming in Las Vegas and he told us the Browns have received allot of action and the season win total has jumped a full game already as of late May. Johnny Football is not the same guy he was at Texas AM gents, this is the NFL. He has looked like an average QB rookie trying to make an NFL roster so far at OTA’s. I do not see Cleveland getting it done big this season although they should improve, since they did draft well and made some coaching changes. I think the QB race will go down to the wire, and while excitement is back in Cleveland, it is because of a possible rising star and media golden child in Manziel not because they are contenders for their division.
The Browns are in a very tough division with Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincy who are all stud teams and Pitt is looking to rebound huge this year, and I do not see one guy making such an impact despite a good defense. Cleveland managed 19 ppg on offense last year. Let’s say they average 23 to 24 ppg this season and their defense stays healthy, they may see 7 wins and start to rebuild, but the running game is lacking and we have yet to see if college greatness at QB with a spread attack ran by a 5’-11” dual threat sensation can translate into success in the NFL in a rookie season, and bear in mind RG III was BETTER coming out of college. I have no opinion but I would say 7 wins max, no value in the line as it is pretty sharp, but it will be fun watching none the less.
- Tony George, www.tonygeorgesports.com
