Sierra Leone Payout Odds to Win the Kentucky Derby?

Sierra Leone is pretty much the co-favorite to win this year's Kentucky Derby though Fierceness does have slightly shorter odds.  

Sierra Leone would pay out $325 for every $100 bet with these odds subject to change if you do not lock this price in here.

Below we look at the rating for each key component heading into the upcoming Kentucky Derby with 10 being the highest and 1 being the lowest.

Key Factors That Could Lead to Sierra Leone Winning This Year's Kentucky Derby

Past Performance (8)

Sierra Leone has finished first in three of four races and second in the only race he has not won (the Remsen).

Jockey (7)

Tyler Gaffalione was named the 2015 Eclipse Award as outstanding apprentice for a season in which he rode 217 winners and horses that earned $5,805,176.

North American career earnings exceed $143 million with 2,250 wins through Nov. 28, 2023.

At 27, he is for sure a rising star in the horse racing world having won more races and money at Churchill Downs than any other jockey in 2022.

He has not yet won a Kentucky Derby.

Blue Grass Winner (5)

Historically, the Blue Grass Stakes has produced ten Kentucky Derby winners, and that sounds great, right?

The Blue Grass Stakes has not produced a winner since 1991, however.

The Favorite (6)

The Kentucky Derby has been contested 115 times since 1908, and the post-time favorite has won the race 40 times for a winning percentage of 34.7 percent.  In other words, the Kentucky Derby favorite has gone on to win well over a quarter of the time.

During a period 2013 through 2018 you'd be forgiven for believing the favorite could not lose. He won six straight over that period.  Justify (2018), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), American Pharaoh (2015), California Chrome (2014), Orb (2013).

Trainer (5)

Chad C. Brownis best known for his expertise with turf horses and with fillies and mares.

Collectively in the Kentucky Derby, Brown is 0-for-6 in five runnings.

Mudder (10)

Sierra Leone made up seven lengths in the slop to win the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds.

More Reason to Bet on Sierra Leone (8)

Jockey Gaffalione is excited about Sierra Leone heading into this coming weekend's Kentucky Derby.

"Watching his replays, you could see him explode. So you knew it was there," he said. ... "and it was everything I expected it to be and more. I still think there’s a lot left in the tank.”

Why Sierra Leone Might Not Win This Year's Kentucky Derby

Risen Star Stakes Winner (3)

It's great that Sierra Leone won this race but no winner of the Risen Star Stakes has ever gone on to win the Kentucky Derby to date. His other victory at the Blue Grass might show more promise if not for the fact that no winner of that race has gone on to be victorious at the Kentucky Derby since 1991.

Post Up Position (3)

The No. 2 post position has had the second most wins but none since 1978.

Odds to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby

Rot     To Win The 2024 Kentucky Derby     Moneyline
1     Dornoch         +2500
2     Sierra Leone         +275
3     Mystik Dan         +2400
4     Catching Freedom         +900
5     Catalytic         +4000
6     Just Steel         +2500
7     Honor Marie         +1600
8     Just a Touch         +1100
10     TO Password         +4000
11     Forever Young         +800
12     Track Phantom         +2800
13     West Saratoga         +6000
14     Endlessly         +2800
15     Domestic Product         +2700
16     Grand Mo the First         +5000
17     Fierceness         +250
18     Stronghold         +1700
19     Resilience         +2400
20     Society Man         +2700
21     AE/21 Epic Ride         +4000

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com