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2012 Kentucky Derby Post Positions
The 2012 Kentucky Derby post positions are now drawn along with the morning lines. Let’s see who fares best based on history. Remember, you can get 7 percent on losses back DAILY at BetOnline not to mention up to $900 in FREE CASH (for qualified customers)
1 – Daddy Long Legs – Nobody wanted this post position and there was relief that Hansen got the number 14 with only the number “1” and “14” left when Daddy Long Legs was called. Along with the number 5 spot, the number 1 post position has won more than any other spot: 12 times. 30/1 odds
2 – Optimizer – 9 wins from this post position since the inception of the Derby. 50/1
3 – Take Charge Indy – Watch this horse. He’s ridden by Calvin Borel who has won a few of the Kentucky Derby races in recent years. Eight have been won from this spot. 15/1
4 – Union Rags – a good spot for the favorite. We shouldn’t see too much of a change in the odds from where they opened based on this draw. 11 winners have come from this spot. Gambling911.com considers this the 3rd best spot to be in based on historic data. Bodemeister was the new morning line favorite with Union Rags at 9/2
5 – Dullahan – Everyone cheered and his odds should come in shorter with this top position, probably the best in the Derby. It has produced 12 winners. 8/1 great value early morning line here.
6 – Bodemeister – One of the favorites to win the Derby after Union Rags. Decent position that has produced 6 wins. The new morning favorite after the draw at 4/1
7 – Rousing Sermon – Has run well in training at Churchill Downs. This position has resulted in 7 victories. 50/1 odds
8 – Creative Cause – This post position has produced four winners over the past two decades. 12/1
9 – Trinniberg – Figures to be among the early speedsters in a decent post position that has produced the lowest number of winners among the top 10. 50/1
10 – Daddy Knows Best – This Steve Asmussin-trained horse is starting from one of the best post positions. 11 winners have come from here. Expect his odds to be slashed a bit. 15/1
11 – Alpha – One of the Derby contenders that had early single digit odds. The last horse to win from the 11th post position was back in 1988 and, prior to this, you had to go back another 50 plus years. Only three horses in total have won from this position. We may see him go into double digit odds. 15/1
12 – Prospective – Has struggled in recent races and this post position doesn’t help matters. 20/1
13 – Went The Day Well – Proven on the dirt already. Historically, not one of the better spots. 20/1
14 – Hansen – The folks were thrilled he’ll be racing from here but the number 14 post position ranks among the worst. 50 years have passed since this spot produced a winner while no horse has even finished in the money from number 14. 10/1 odds.
15 – Gemologist - The number 15 has yielded 4 wins, all of which have been since 1984. 6/1 odds.
16 – El Padrino - Animal Kingdom won last year from 16, but one must ask him or her self what exactly are the odds of a horse winning from this position two years in a row? What are the odds of a horse winning from this position two years in a row when this position has only produced a total of three winners lifetime? 20/1
17 – Done Talking - The 17 and 19 positions have never won!
18 – Sabercat – Only one win from here. 50/1
19 – I’ll Have Another - The 17 and 19 positions have never won! 12/1 bad value all things considering how poorly this post position has performed in the past.
20 – Liaison – One of the worst post positions though Big Brown did it in 2008. 50/1
Here were your early 2012 Kentucky Derby odds coming into the Post Position Draw:
Union Rags +350
Gemologist +700 or 7/1
Creative Cause 9/1
I’ll Have Antoher +1100
Take Charge Indy +2000
El Padrino +2500
Went The Day Well +2800
Daddy Nose Best +2000
Daddy Long Legs +1800
Done Talking +3500
Rousing Sermon 50/1
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
Submitted by Don Shapiro on Wed, 05/02/2012 - 18:03