Spread on the Colts-Steelers Game at Pittsburgh -7

Carrie Stroup here with your spread on the all-important Colts-Steelers game. Pittsburgh -7, Total: 47

Two banged-up AFC playoff hopefuls, each potentially without their starting quarterback, will look to stay healthy and in the hunt for the postseason when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

Andrew Luck is expected to miss 2-4 more weeks for Indianapolis (6-5 SU and ATS), which picked up its 3^rd consecutive win and 4^th consecutive victory ATS with a 25-12 triumph over Tampa Bay, as Matt Hasselbeck improved to 4-0 as the starting QB this season. The Colts rushed for just 27 yards, but Hasselbeck made up the difference by throwing for 309 yards, the most by any Colts QB this season.

Pittsburgh (6-5 SU, 5-4-2 ATS) led in every quarter on the road against Seattle, but eventually fell 39-30, their 4^th loss ATS in five games, knocking them out of the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. Despite a season-high in passing yards from Ben Roethlisberger, who suffered a concussion during the game, the Steelers could not overcome four TOs that led to 21 points for the Seahawks.

Betting trends do not heavily favor one team over another. Coaching history slightly favors Indianapolis, as Chuck Pagano is 21-14 ATS in his career against the AFC, while Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin is 52-54 ATS against the AFC. Head-to-head history slightly favors Pittsburgh, which has gone 5-3 ATS at home since 1992. This season, Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS, compared to just 1-2 ATS for Pittsburgh, vs. teams with winning records, but Pittsburgh fared better in the 2^nd half of both the 2013 and 2014 seasons against teams with winning records, going 7-1 ATS, compared to a 5-7 ATS mark put up by Indianapolis.

The Colts have been puzzling this season, but have found ways to win games repeatedly, despite major struggles both offensively and defensively. They’re averaging just 345 total YPG (22^nd in NFL) while allowing 387.9 total YPG (26^th in NFL). They’ve struggled with turnovers (-5 differential, 26^th in the league) and with discipline (103 penalties for 922 yards, both last in the league). Even more puzzling, they’re 4-0 in games started by the pre-season back-up QB, and 2-5 in games started by the pre-season starting QB. Regardless, this team has a shot to win the division as long as Matt Hasselbeck can limit turnovers. He has been moving the ball down the field and has the Colts in excellent shape for when Andrew Luck returns.

The Steelers rode a high octane offense and subpar defense to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth last year, a model they’ve matched very similarly this year. Pittsburgh is currently averaging 398 total YPG (4^th in the league), thanks in part to top 10 ranks both running (8^th in YPG) and passing (6^th in YPG), while allowing 377.3 total YPG (23^rd in the league), not so thanks in part to a pass defense allowing 283.6 YPG (30^th in the league) and a 67.1 opponent QB completion % (27^th in the league).

The defense has not been all bad this year, as they’ve allowed just 93.6 rushing YPG (7^th in the league), including six games allowing less than 80 yards.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter