New Orleans Bowl 2015 Point Spread: Arkansas vs. Louisiana Tech
Carrie Stroup here with your New Orleans Bowl 2015 point spread for Arkansas vs. Louisiana Tech, which is -2, Total: 67.5.
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES (9-3) vs. LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS (8-4)
A pair of high-powered offenses tries to cap off the season in style when Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech collide in Saturday's New Orleans Bowl.
QB Fredi Knighten has propelled the Red Wolves (8-4 ATS) to 48.6 PPG during their current eight-game win streak (6-2 ATS), while QB Jeff Driskel has led the Bulldogs to a huge 7-2 SU mark (4-5 ATS) with 36.7 PPG in their past nine games. But Louisiana Tech is also coming off a humiliating 58-24 loss to 5-point underdog Southern Miss when it turned the ball over seven times. The giveaways could continue against an Arkansas State team that has forced 27 turnovers in the past eight contests.
The Red Wolves also have some big betting trends in their favor, such as their 10-2 ATS record when facing a winning team in the past three seasons or the fact that teams like the Bulldogs coming off an ATS loss facing an opponent with 3+ straight ATS wins are just 19-50 ATS (27%) in the past five seasons.
But not all is hopeless for Louisiana Tech, which is 14-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992, and 32-15 ATS off a conference loss in that same span.
Arkansas State's recent offensive surge of 55.3 PPG and 529 total YPG in the past three games gives the club 41.0 PPG and 448 total YPG this season. While the star of the offense is senior QB Fredi Knighten (1,698 pass yds, 7.6 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT), the Red Wolves prefer to run the football. They rush the ball 75% of the time, which equates to 236 YPG on 5.0 YPC. Three different ball carriers average more than six yards per carry with RBs Michael Gordon (1,055 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 9 TD), freshman Warren Wand (643 rush yds, 6.1 YPC, 4 TD) and sophomore Johnston White (573 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 14 TD). The 5-foot-9, 187-pound senior Gordon has rushed for 821 yards and 7 TD during the eight-game win streak, including 148 yards in the regular-season finale versus Texas State. The 5-foot-11, 180-pound White has scored in all eight of the victories, totaling 11 TD during the win streak.
Knighten has also rushed for 358 yards and 4 TD this season, and has been much more potent through the air recently with 286 passing YPG, 9 TD and 1 INT over the past three contests. Senior WR Tres Houston (568 rec yds, 10 TD) has caught four of these touchdowns as part of his 13 receptions for 311 yards over the past three games.
Defensively, Arkansas State allows 28.8 PPG on 397 total YPG this year, but has improved those numbers to 22.0 PPG on 356 total YPG in the past three games. The Red Wolves are decent against the run, limiting opponents to 145 YPG on 4.2 YPG, but the secondary has been burned for 252 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA. Part of this is the result of the gambling nature of a team that has at least three takeaways in four straight games, and hopes its opponent keeps giving away the football like the Bulldogs did seven times in the regular-season finale.
Louisiana Tech has a high-octane offense that scores 36.7 PPG with 465 total YPG. These numbers are achieved with a nearly even balance of 53% passing plays and 47% rushing plays. But while the ground game picks up a pedestrian 154 YPG on 4.7 YPC, the air attack racks up 311 YPG on 8.5 YPA.
Senior QB Jeff Driskel entered this year with a weak career ratio of 23 TD and 20 INT, but this season he has thrown for 24 TD and only eight picks. Driskel has 3,575 passing yards (8.7 YPA) this season, including nine games of at least 290 passing yards. His top target is junior WR Trent Taylor (89 rec, 1,133 yds, 8 TD) who has six 100-yard efforts this season.
On the ground, the Bulldogs usually hand the football to senior RB Kenneth Dixon (968 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 17 TD) who has rushed for more than 160 yards on three separate occasions. Although Dixon has been horrible in the past two games with only 35 yards on 27 carries, he did catch five passes for 82 yards and 2 TD in the last game, giving him 354 receiving yards and five scores through the air this season.
The Louisiana Tech defense allows a subpar 26.7 PPG on 382 total YPG, but has been very good in stopping the run (116 YPG on 3.5 YPC). The pass defense has been consistently torched all season though, surrendering 266 passing YPG on 7.0 YPA and 60% completions. The Bulldogs haven't created enough turnovers away from home though, tallying only five takeaways in six road games this season.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
