MNF Betting Odds: Chiefs vs. Packers

Carrie Stroup here with your MNF betting odds for the Chiefs vs. Packers game.  Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -7, Total: 49

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-1) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-0)

Fresh off of a heartbreaking loss at the hands of Peyton Manning, Justin Houston and the Chiefs head north to Lambeau Field to take on reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the undefeated Packers.

Turning the ball over five times against any opponent is usually a recipe for disaster. The fact that the Chiefs only lost last Thursday's game 31-24 is a testament to the defensive effort. Perhaps getting away from Arrowhead Stadium could actually help Kansas City, as the team is 12-6 ATS in the past two-plus seasons on the road including a Week 1 win at Houston.

The Chiefs couldn’t have asked for a better first 23 minutes of their matchup with Denver, forcing three punts, a turnover on downs and a Marcus Peters pick-six to stake the Chiefs to a 14-0 lead. The only problem was that the guy under center for the opposition was Peyton Manning who had beaten Kansas City in 11 of 12 career meetings. DE Justin Houston and his defensive teammates held Denver to just 299 total yards, the third-lowest single-game total of the Peyton Manning era in Denver. Peters’ pick-six in the second quarter was his second in as many weeks, and Houston racked up another two sacks bringing his season total to three.

Fast forward to this week and they get an even better quarterback in the prime of his career and he’s at home. The Chiefs defense is more than capable of shutting down anybody if given a fighting chance with the turnover situation. Over the past three seasons K.C. is 5-1 ATS when having an even turnover margin for the game.

The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS versus Green Bay since 1992, but need to get things figured out on offense quickly because Aaron Rodgers can likely already smell the blood in the water. Rodgers has not thrown an interception in front of his home fans in 451 consecutive throws, tossing 38 TD in that span. QB Alex Smith attempted only a pair of passes over 10 yards downfield, completing a single pass to offseason pickup WR Jeremy Maclin for 30 yards to keep a drive alive. Smith still hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a wideout since 2013, so look for TE Travis Kelce to get a heavy dose of targets.

Kansas City can take some positives from the Denver loss, as it gave the ball away five times and still only lost on a last-minute touchdown. Really, it came on a play that should’ve never happened, a returned fumble off of a Jamaal Charles run with 27 seconds and 80 yards to go in a tie game. Late-game clock management has always troubled head coach Andy Reid’s teams, and Charles is a notorious fumbler going back to his collegiate days at Texas. Reid should have never called that play to begin with, especially considering Charles’ red-zone fumble on the opening possession, perhaps taking a knee or throwing it deep was the call there. Those kind of mistakes will have Kansas City buried in Packers touchdowns on Monday night, so it will be interesting to see how Reid calls the game knowing who is on the other side of the field.

Aaron Rodgers could be in for a huge night against a Chiefs secondary that’s surrendered 536 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to the likes of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett and an aging Peyton Manning. Green Bay is 9-4 ATS in the past three years when it gains 400+ yards of offense, and is 14-6 ATS when averaging more than 6.0 yards per play.

With top RB Eddie Lacy questionable with ankle issues, backup RB James Starks will be in the backfield with Rodgers often. Kansas City has a top-10 rushing defense to balance out its bottom-10 pass defense, which could spell disaster for defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s unit.

The Packers offense is still trying to feel things out with the loss of WR Jordy Nelson for the season, and the health of WR Randall Cobb would be a gigantic help on that front. Almost recovered from a shoulder issue, Cobb was able to avoid the injury report this week and should be at full strength opposite WRs Davante Adams (upgraded to probable after injuring his ankle last week) and James Jones.

Green Bay will look to continue its home dominance, posting a 6-0 mark ATS in home games during the first half of the season since 2013. The team is also 11-2 ATS over that same stretch when playing on a grass surface, including 2-0 this season.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter