Line on the Penn State vs. Georgia Tax Slayer Bowl Game
Carrie Stroup with your Penn State vs. Georgia Tax Slayer Bowl game for Saturday. Georgia -6.5, Total: 42
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (7-5) vs. GEORGIA BULLDOGS (9-3)
Surging Georgia brings a four-game win streak (3-1 ATS) to Jacksonville for Saturday's Tax Slayer Bowl to face a slumping Penn State club with three straight defeats (SU and ATS).
The Bulldogs haven’t scored 30 points in a game since early October, but have held opponents to a mere 12.2 PPG over the past six contests. In this same time period, the once-fierce Nittany Lions defense has surrendered 29.0 PPG.
Georgia lost top RB Nick Chubb (knee) midseason, head coach Mark Richt and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer were fired in December, and defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt took the DC job with Alabama to replace Kirby Smart who is the new head coach in Athens. But Smart is staying on with the Tide through their hopeful two-game title run, which leaves WR coach Bryan McClendon as the interim head coach for Saturday.
Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg has a weak 53% completion rate this year, but has pumped out 15 TD and only 3 INT over the past nine games.
Both schools have favorable betting trends, as the Bulldogs (5-7 ATS) are 27-12 ATS in non-conference away games since 1992 and its opponent is 0-6 ATS away from home after the first month of the season since 2014. But the Nittany Lions (4-8 ATS) are 12-8 ATS after an ATS loss and fall in the category of underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a win pct. of 51% to 60% going 37-13 ATS (74%) in the past 10 seasons after ATS defeats in three of the previous four games.
Penn State's offense has been subpar all season with only 23.7 PPG (101st in FBS) on 344 total YPG (106th in nation), and those numbers are much worse away from home (17.6 PPG on 328 total YPG) where the team is just 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS). The team is balanced offensively with 33 rushes per game and 30 pass attempts per contest, but gains only 135 YPG (4.1 YPC) on the ground and 209 YPG and 6.9 YPA through the air.
With the dismissal of offensive coordinator John Donovan, quarterbacks coach Ricky Rahne will run the offense, and will try to prevent QB Christian Hackenberg (53% completions, 2,386 pass yds, 6.9 YPA, 16 TD, 5 INT) from adding to the 38 sacks taken. The junior has topped 300 passing yards just once all season (315 at Maryland), but Hackenberg was phenomenal in his bowl appearance last year when he torched Boston College for 371 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT in an overtime victory. WR Chris Godwin had 140 receiving yards and touchdown in that win over B.C., and he is the midst of a great sophomore season with 968 receiving yards and five touchdowns. All four of Godwin's 100-yard efforts have come during the past six games, and he recorded a career-high 11 receptions in the regular-season finale at Michigan State.
The ground game is capably handled by freshman RB Saquon Barkley, who has 1,007 rushing yards (6.1 YPC) and 7 TD in only 10 games this season. In the past six contests, Barkley has amassed 760 total yards (127 YPG) and four touchdowns.
The Nittany Lions defense has been great this season with 21.7 PPG and 325 total YPG allowed, but it has been burned for 35.3 PPG and 392 total YPG in the past three games, and has surrendered 34.6 PPG and 409 total YPG away from home. The passing defense has been very effective with 174 YPG allowed (11th in FBS) on a mere 6.0 YPA, and the front seven has held opponents to 151 rushing YPG on a paltry 3.9 YPC. Penn State also has a hefty 44 sacks (T-2nd in nation) has also recorded 22 takeaways this season, but is playing a team that has not turned the ball over in either of its past two road games.
Georgia's offense averages 26.5 PPG and 381 total YPG this season, and these numbers are much lower in the past three games (18.7 PPG and 319 total YPG). The team chooses to run the football 60% of the time for 194 YPG on 5.2 YPC, while the passing offense is still respectable with 187 YPG on 7.4 YPA and 62% completions.
Junior QB Greyson Lambert (64% completions, 1,844 pass yds, 7.8 YPA, 11 TD, 2 INT) has been a bit inconsistent this year with a sub-50% completion rate in three of four games from Oct. 1 to Nov. 7, but he has been on the mark in the past three contests (46-of-67, 69%). Senior WR Malcolm Mitchell (751 rec yds, 4 TD) is the only standout receiver on this team, but he has failed to reach 75 yards during a six-game scoreless drought.
The rushing attack continues to be handled nicely by sophomore RB Sony Michel (1,076 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 7 TD) who has racked up four games of 130+ rushing yards in the past seven contests. Michel is also coming off a season-high 187 total yards (149 rush, 38 rec) at Georgia Tech.
The Bulldogs have an outstanding defense that holds teams to 16.9 PPG and 298 total YPG, and those numbers have improved to 12.3 PPG and 276 total YPG in the past three games. They have the nation's top passing defense (146 YPG allowed), as opposing quarterbacks gain just 5.8 YPA. The run-stop unit is also solid in giving up 152 YPG on 4.0 YPC. Turnovers have also been huge, as the Bulldogs have collected 21 takeaways this season, and Penn State has turned the football over a dozen times during the past five games.
- Matt Skinner, Gambling911.com
