Dolphins-Eagles Point Spread – Week 10
Carrie Stroup here with your Dolphins-Eagles point spread for Week 10 of the NFL. Philadelphia -6, Total: 49.5
MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-5) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-4)
Two former first-round quarterbacks will square off in Week 10, when Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins travel north to take on Sam Bradford and the Eagles.
Miami (3-5 SU and ATS) fell to last place in the AFC East and 0-4 in divisional play with road losses against the Patriots and Bills in the past two games. Last week in Buffalo, the Dolphins allowed a season-high 266 rushing yards in a 33-17 affair.
Philadelphia (4-4 SU and ATS) has recovered well from its 0-2 start, going 4-2 SU and ATS since a season-low 226 total yards against the Cowboys in Week 2. In the two team’s second meeting of the season on Sunday night, the Eagles failed to hold on to three separate fourth-quarter leads, but still earned a huge overtime road win, 33-27. Philly survived despite converting just 3-of-13 third downs, and a time of possession of just 25:42.
The trends historically favor the Eagles in this game, as they are 18-7 ATS over the past three seasons when gaining at least 400 yards. This includes 3-1 ATS this season, while Miami is 0-4 ATS when allowing at least 400 yards this year. The Eagles have won the past five games ATS against the Dolphins dating back to 1996, including two wins SU entering the game as an underdog. Both starting signal callers have had nearly identical success ATS in their careers, with Miami’s Tannehill posting a 26-28 mark, and Philadelphia’s Bradford going 28-29.
Ryan Tannehill’s 280 passing YPG puts him seventh in the league, despite being sacked 23 times (5th-most in NFL). The Dolphins are 21st in the NFL with only 21.4 PPG this season, due in large part to their inability to convert on third downs, managing just a 28.9% success rate (2nd-worst in NFL). Miami’s 266 rushing yards allowed against the Bills was the fourth 150+ yard performance allowed by the defense this year. Overall, the Dolphins are surrendering 142.1 rushing YPG (31st in NFL), which the Eagles will surely try to exploit.
The Dolphins’ poor run defense is music to the ears of RBs Ryan Mathews (2nd in NFL in YPC) and DeMarco Murray (T-36 in NFL in YPC). Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS this season in games where it has outrushed its opponent, and 0-4 ATS in games where it has been outrushed by an opponent.
The Eagles will rely heavily on their two running backs, who have helped lead a ground game averaging 172.5 YPG over the past four games, to take the pressure off Sam Bradford, who is tied for fourth in the NFL with 10 INT and ranks 28th in the league with just 6.65 yards per pass attempt. Philadelphia loves playing this time of year, going 8-1 ATS in November games since 2013.
- Carrie Stroup, Gamblig911.com Senior Reporter
