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NFL Draft Betting -- Where Do the QB's Fit Into the First Round?
The start of the NFL Draft is Thursday, and the one thing we seem to know is that we DON'T know a whole lot.
Well, that isn't exactly true.
WagerHome.com PPH customers DO probably know that Jadeveon Clowney is the top pick in the draft, but we don't know if the Houston Texans are going to exercise their right to pick him. Owner Robert McNair appeared to indicate that his team is wide open for the right kind of trade, because the need they are really looking to address doesn't necessarily fit with the #1 pick.
"You take a guy like Jadeveon Clowney," McNair said. "He's obviously the best player in the draft, but he's a defensive end. He's not a quarterback. If he's a quarterback and the best player it's easy, but that's not the case. "
No, and what that means is that if the Texans hold onto the pick, it probably won't be Johnny Manziel, who is a Lone Star State hero but hardly the unanimous choice as best at his position, even though they want a QB.
In the Pay Per Head NFL Draft betting odds at WagerHome.com, Manziel is -120 to go fourth or higher in the draft, with the same price to go with the #5 pick or lower. if Houston doesn't draft him, is he somebody that St. Louis, Jacksonville or Cleveland would take a shot with? The Jaguars might seem a fit, but one must entertain that Blair Bortles of Central Florida (who is -150 to go seventh or higher at WagerHome) is going to be taken very seriously at that spot as well.
The off-season moves, as well as the experienced quarterbacks who are available, may impact a team's decision. And PPH betting customers are trying to envision what might dictate the moves. Houston has journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick signed for next season. It has now become known that Mike Glennon, who started for Tampa Bay as a rookie last season, can be had for the right price. Oakland, which has the #5 pick, has signed Matt Schaub, who may just need a change in scenery after last year's debacle in Houston. Or are the Raiders still going to be looking for somebody with that high a pick? What about Tampa Bay at #7, which may not be overjoyed with Glennon but will need to look at more of a long-term solution than Josh McCown, who new coach Lovie Smith brought in to run the offense this season?
Things have a tendency to change drastically - sometimes for good reasons, sometimes not. There was one point during the college season that Teddy Bridgewater, a so-called "dual-threat" quarterback from Louisville, was considered a possibility to be the #1 overall pick. Now, after perhaps not meeting expectations in a "pro day" appearance, you can get a football betting price of -150 at WagerHome.com on Bridgewater going in the first round.
The case of Derek Carr could be a curious one. The Fresno State quarterback was another one of those signal-callers who was discussed as a #1 possibility, which would have made for nice poetry, with his brother David having been taken #1 overall by the Texans in the 2002 draft. To add yet another interesting twist, David Carr says that he has talked to at least SIX teams who have told him they would like to explore signing him as a free agent backup if they draft his little brother. Cleveland is one of those teams, but based on the younger Carr's performance when moving up in competition, namely the Las Vegas Bowl against USC, where he had only 216 yards.
It would be quite a reach for the Browns at #4, and according to WagerHome.com’s NFL Draft betting odds, he is -120 either way to go above/below the #26 pick.
Undoubtedly any of these top eight teams (can't forget Minnesota at #8) that passes on a quarterback with its first-round selection will find something they can work with on the second round, where Bridgewater and/or Carr might indeed be available, not to mention the likes of Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo, Georgia's Aaron Murray, Clemson's Tajh Boyd and Alabama's AJ McCarron (even money at WagerHome.com to go no lower than Round 2) will be waiting.
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