DeSantis Says 'Florida Will Smell Like Marijuana' as GOP Odds of Winning Here May Go Up in Smoke

• The current margin of victory for Republican Rick Scott in the Senate race is over/under 7.5 percent at BetOnline.

• Weed and abortion seen as incentivizing to Democratic voters as both will be appearing on the general election ballot in November.

Weed and Abortion Will Be on the Florida Ballot

This week's news that abortion and marijuana will be on the November Florida ballot most certainly moves the state back into the purple shade from becoming reliably red in 2020.  These are hot button issues that will incentivize more Democrats to the polls, even those who might have otherwise sat out 2024's general election.

On Monday, the Florida Supreme Court upheld the state's 15-week abortion ban and allowed for a ballot measure that would protect access to abortion should it pass with better than 60% in favor.

For now, BetOnline offers only odds on the margin of victory for the Republican Senator's race at over/under 7.5.

"That total is moving down," Gambling911.com's own Payton O'Brien said, emphatically.  "Surprised it hasn't yet but it's still early.  The under is like taking candy from a baby."

Republican Senator Rick Scott has had some close races both for Governor and Senator.  He's come out on the winning end up to this point.  Incumbents tend to perform better. 

The Florida Supreme Court decision led to a more restrictive 6-week ban on abortion going into effect until the November election.  Many women have no idea they are pregnant prior to 6 weeks.

“So many of our patients already struggled to access an abortion under a 15-week ban. Now, the lives of even more Floridians will be in danger as basic health care is pushed further out of reach,” said Kelly Flynn, president and CEO of A Woman’s Choice of Jacksonville, in a statement. 

There is indeed precedent for abortion rights performing well at the ballot box.  Last November, voters approved a constitutional amendment allowing for abortions in the GOP stronghold of Ohio by a margin of 57% to 43%.   Republican front runner and likely nominee Donald Trump won the state by a margin of 8 percentage points over Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.

A similar initiative won by an 18 percent margin in the ruby red state of Kansas. 

Florida has an advantage of presenting the abortion ballot amendment during a presidential election year, alongside the recreational marijuana initiative no less.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis predicted late Thursday that Florida voters will reject both ballot questions, citing that these amendments are too "radical."

Florida will 'start to smell like marijuana' if recreational weed amendment passes, the Governor said.

President Joe Biden is hopeful Florida smells more like roses by the time November rolls around.

Joe Biden in the Weeds in Florida

Biden lost to Trump in 2020 courtesy of Latinos in Dade County shifting towards the GOP candidate.  The Dems thought they could win in Florida but those efforts failed miserably. 

Nevertheless, Biden's campaign says his chances of winning are much greater now that abortion and pot have made their way to the ballot.  Trump only beat Hillary Clinton by 1.19% in Florida during the 2016 general election.

"Abortion Rights Will Be Front and Center in Florida This Election Cycle," reads a memo sent out by the Biden campaign, referring to the "new, extreme abortion ban - one that Donald Trump personally paved the way for."

Maybe not in Biden's favor, Florida's explosive population growth since 2020.

Between 2020 and 2023, the country's fastest-growing metro area was Lakeland, Fla., at 12.1%. Between 2022 and 2023, it was Wildwood-The Villages, Fla., at 4.7%.  These areas are considered strongholds for the Republicans.

Likewise, many of the more recent transplants are disenchanted Northerners, tired of paying those high state and property taxes. 
Florida does not have a state individual income tax.

This may be offset by the significantly increased insurance rates, both on homes and automobiles, not to mention that double-digit increases in rents.

The most recent state poll for the general election, The St. Pete's Polls, had Trump up 6 points on Biden.  That was in Mid-March.

Biden is now at even odds to be re-elected versus Trump at -110 in what is essentially a dead heat.

- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com Political Correspondent