Michigan vs. Duke Spread

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Mar/29/2013
Michigan vs. Duke Spread

Carrie Stroup here with your Michigan vs. Duke spread courtesy of Sportsbook.com, where you can claim your FREE $100 bet here

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Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Duke -2 & 134

Two of college basketball’s top coaches, Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski and Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, will battle it out in the Sweet 16 on Friday night for spot in the Elite Eight.

Both of these teams cruised in the early going, beating both of their opponents by double-digits. Third-seeded Michigan State breezed past Valparaiso 65-54 in the Round of 64 and then dispatched sixth-seeded Memphis 70-48 in the Round of 32 to go 2-0 SU and ATS thus far in the Big Dance. Second-seeded Duke beat Albany 73-61, but failed to cover a 20-point spread before beating Creighton 66-50, easily covering a six-point spread. Since 1998, Duke has gone 6-1 SU against Michigan State, though the Spartans have covered in five of those seven games. They last met on Nov. 15, 2011, a 74-69 Duke win on a neutral court when the Blue Devils made 10-of-21 threes. Overall, though, this Michigan State squad has struggled against its toughest foes, going just 5-7 SU against ranked opponents this season. Duke went 4-2 against ranked foes, with all four of those wins coming against top-five teams. The Blue Devils have lost just one game all season with PF Ryan Kelly healthy, but the Spartans are 12-4 ATS (75%) when playing a team with a win pct. of at least 80% in the past two seasons, including a 6-0 ATS mark on the road after 15+ games.

Duke’s defense was extremely impressive against Creighton in the Round of 32, keeping a team that had been making 42.2% three-pointers—the top rate in the nation—to just 2-of-19 from beyond the arc. Duke also survived with star PFs Mason Plumlee (17.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG) and Ryan Kelly (13.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) in serious foul trouble. The player who stepped up was freshman SG Rasheed Sulaimon (11.7 PPG), who went off for 21 points on 5-of-9 shooting. He was helped out by SG Seth Curry (17.3 PPG), who scored 17 points, with 15 of those coming in the second half. Curry was also big in the Round of 64, scoring a team-high 26 points on 10-of-14 shooting, including 2-for-2 from long distance. This season, he’s making 2.6 threes per game on a 42.6% clip. That makes him one of three Duke starters, along with PG Quinn Cook (12.0 PPG, 5.4 APG, 40.1% threes) and Kelly (45.9% threes), who both make more than 40% of their threes. Kelly, though, has been cold, averaging 6.3 PPG over his past four games and failing to connect on any of his 10 three-point attempts in that span. But Kelly didn't miss against Michigan State last season, scoring 14 points on 3-of-3 FG, 2-of-2 threes and 6-of-6 free throws.

Burly PF Derrick Nix (10.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) led Michigan State to the Round of 32, scoring 23 points and grabbing 15 rebounds against Valparaiso. He followed that up with a strong 13-point, eight-rebound performance, to go along with four steals, to get to the Sweet 16. He’ll be the key to battling Plumlee on the post. Nix may be shorter, but he certainly has a weight advantage and helped limit Plumlee to seven points and five rebounds in 32 minutes in last season's meeting. Nix is joined in the paint by C Adreian Payne (10.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG), who had 14 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks against Memphis, and swingman Branden Dawson (9.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG) who scored just one point. Freshman SG Gary Harris (13.1 PPG) was the leading scorer against Memphis, going for 23 points on 6-of-9 shooting. He’s hitting 2.0 threes per game this year on a 41.9% clip. Junior PG Keith Appling (13.3 PPG, 3.4 APG) is Michigan State’s leading scorer, though he scored just two against Memphis. However, Appling scored a team-high 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting in last season's meeting with Duke.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

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