Kentucky vs. Georgia Betting Line: Wildcats on Road to Going Undefeated
Carrie Stroup here with your Kentucky vs. Georgia betting line.
KENTUCKY WILDCATS (29-0) at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (19-9)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -10.5, Total: 126
After vanquishing then No. 18 Arkansas on Saturday, undefeated No.1 Kentucky invades Athens to face a Georgia team looking to shock the world.
Most pundits had tabbed Saturday’s meeting between the SEC’s two ranked teams, Kentucky and Arkansas, as the conference’s game of the year. After a resounding 84-67 win by the Wildcats, finally slaying an Arkansas squad that’s had their number in recent years, Kentucky travels to Georgia where things look to be business as usual. Does Georgia have Kentucky right where they want them, though?
Finally fully healthy, a depleted version of the Bulldogs hung tough with Kentucky in Lexington on Feb. 3 before finally succumbing in a 69-58 defeat that was much closer than the score indicates. (Georgia was only down by seven points with two minutes left.) The Bulldogs still easily shattered the 18-point spread, and look to give Kentucky an even tougher fight now that F Marcus Thornton (12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG) is back in the fold to battle the Wildcats’ mammoth front line.
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Georgia has had its recent struggles protecting home court, as they dropped back-to-back games against South Carolina and Auburn in Stegeman Coliseum before beginning their current win streak. Georgia is 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) at home this season. In their past five wins, Kentucky has ascended back to its usual dominant level of play, as they’re 4-0-1 ATS in that span (the Wildcats had been 0-5 ATS before that). Overall in conference play on the road, Kentucky is 3-4-1 ATS. The total has gone Over in four of Kentucky’s last five road contests.
Historically, Kentucky is 15-5 SU (9-10-1 ATS) in the past 20 games of this series (dating back to 2005). The Wildcats are 4-2 SU (4-2 ATS) in the past six meetings in Athens, with Georgia taking this game the last time these two played in Athens in March of 2013, the last year that Kentucky missed the NCAA tournament.
As hard as it is to believe that the undisputed king of college basketball, undefeated Kentucky, could have a “swoon” in their season and lose their swagger, questions of whether Kentucky is “vulnerable” have seemingly vanished with the Wildcats’ recent play. They’ve shot above 48% from the field in four of their past five wins and have averaged 82.2 PPG in that span (highlighted by a 110-75 thrashing of Auburn on Feb. 21). Meanwhile, the team defense has been steady as ever, holding four of their last five opponents under 37.5% from the field. (Auburn, being the exception in garbage time of that 40 point win.)
Kentucky’s depth has been the story of college basketball this season, as they boast eight rotation players who average over 5.5 points per game, but nobody averaging more than 11.5 points per game. G Aaron Harrison (11.1 PPG, 1.3 SPG) and G Devin Booker (11.1 PPG, 1.7 threes/game, 21.6 MPG) are the Wildcats’ “leading scorers” to date.
The Wildcats’ hottest player has been F Trey Lyles (8.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG) as Lyles has shot 66% from the field, good for a 13.8 points per game average over his past four games. Lyles has scored 18 points in back-to-back contests. G Andrew Harrison (8.7 PPG, 4 APG), who had his hold on the starting point guard job questioned earlier this season, has played some of his best basketball the past two weeks, scoring double-figures in three of his last four games and sporting a 4:1 A:TO ratio in that span.
F Karl-Anthony Towns (9.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG) and C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG) team for the most intimidating front-line in the nation, as they’ve combined to block 4.3 shots per game in their past four games and have undoubtedly altered countless others. Everyone is well-versed at how dominant Kentucky’s defense is (34.4% FG, 1st in NCAA), but a testament to how distruptive Kentucky’s length is – especially Towns and Cauley-Stein – Kentucky blocks 16.8% of all two-point jumpers (non-layups and dunks), which is first in the nation. It’s a full 1.8% ahead of the second best team (Syracuse). The median number for blocked two-point jumpers is 6.4%.
Georgia has been very good on defense recently and during the season at-large (38.7% FG allowed, 3rd in SEC, 21st in NCAA). Thornton’s return has gotten Georgia’s defense back where it needs to be to win (last four opponents below 39%). Georgia needs the defensive effort to always be there because offensively, the Bulldogs aren’t a work of art (41.6% FG in conference play, 253rd in NCAA). The Bulldogs have really struggled shooting the ball, having not broken 40% from the field since Feb. 11 – a streak that doesn’t look promising to end against Kentucky. That said, Georgia did shoot a respectable 42% in Lexington in early February and were the last team to outrebound the Wildcats. (Georgia’s +12 beatdown of Kentucky on the boards on Feb. 3 is actually the Wildcats’ biggest blemish in that category in any single game this season.) Even though Thornton hasn’t found the scoring touch lately (six of seven games since his return have been single-digit efforts) his muscle, leadership, and interior defense are things the Bulldogs can’t live without.
Thornton is flanked by F Nemanja Djurisic (11.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG), who’s enjoying the best basketball of his career recently, (15.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 2 threes/game over his past three games). Djurisic has a great basketball IQ and is crafty enough to use his big body to score in the post, find an open cutter, or pick-and-pop for perimeter scores.
The Georgia backcourt is anchored by the trio of G Charles Mann (11.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.0 APG), a player who loves to put his head down and drive into the teeth of the defense, G Kenny Gaines (11.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.7 threes/game), a burly guard and streak shooter who’s feeling it right now (2.7 threes, 44% 3PT over his last three games), and G J.J. Frazier (10 PPG, 3.4 APG) who’s recovering from a concussion and has come off the bench in Georgia’s last two contests. Frazier, a diminutive lefty, can really heat up from outside, as he owns a 37-point performance (12-14 FG, 7-7 3PT) earlier this season versus Mississippi State.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
