PGA Tour Picks – Odds to Win The Open Championship 2021

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Call it the British Open or just The Open, but don’t call it another tournament. The world’s best golfers gather this week at Royal St. George’s Golf Club in England for the 149th Open Championship looking to hoist the Claret Jug. The game’s oldest tournament returns to the schedule after being canceled last year with Shane Lowry enjoying an extended stay as the defending champion. Lowry topped the field in 2019 and is positioned behind some of the biggest names in the sport on the odds board. Jon Rahm, who claimed his first major championship last month at Torrey Pines, opened as the betting favorite and is the only player with shorter than 10/1 odds. Visit BookMaker.eu for complete odds, matchups and props for the 149th Open Championship.

The 149th Open Championship
Dates: Thursday, July 15 - Sunday, July 18, 2021
Location: Royal St. George’s GC, Kent, England
Opening PGA Tour Odds: Jon Rahm +750
The Open Championship TV Coverage: Golf Channel, NBC

Odds Analysis

Strict COVID protocols ahead of the tournament have already claimed a few players. Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama and 2015 Open winner Zach Johnson have withdrawn as have others for COVID or other reasons. That hasn’t affected the top of the odds board, though, where Rahm is a prohibitive favorite. I guess someone had to be at the top and why not place one of the hottest golfers in that spot. Rahm closed the U.S. Open with a flurry to win his first major closing as the pre-tournament favorite.

That doesn’t mean the favorite will win again this week. All we have to do is visit the PGA Championship where Phil Mickelson stunned the field for his sixth major championship. More stunning was the fact that Lefty closed in the +20000 range giving backers a helluva payday. Rahm faces a steep battle since only a handful of players have won the U.S. Open and The Open Championship in the same year. And with so many talented golfers taking their swings there is value further down the board.

PGA Tour players haven’t seen many links courses this season so there could be an edge for European Tour pros. That leaves the door open for Louis Oosthuizen, who is still reeling from consecutive runner-up major finishes. One of several golfers on the second tier, Oosthuizen is an experienced links player and former Open winner having triumphed in 2010 with a dominant showing at St. Andrews.

Six other golfers are listed at shorter than 20/1 and a case can be made for any of them. Xander Schauffle is now the best player without a major championship now that Rahm is out of the conversation. Could the X-man follow in the Spaniard’s footsteps? Listed as the second favorite, Schauffele has had several near misses and could be ripe for the taking.

Not only do players have to contend with a strong field, they also have to battle Royal St. George’s. It’s not long at just over 7,200 yards, but it is a typical links layout with undulating terrain and deep bunkers. And weather will certainly play a factor with the course situated along the coast. Players that can handle the wind will have an advantage this week.

Odds to Win The Open Championship at BookMaker.eu
Jon Rahm +750
Xander Schauffele +1500
Brooks Koepka +1600
Rory McIlroy +1600
Jordan Spieth +1600
Justin Thomas +1600
Dustin Johnson +1800
Bryson Dechambeau +2600
Viktor Hovland +2800
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Louis Oosthuizen +3000
Collin Morikawa +3000
Patrick Cantlay +3000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3000
Shane Lowry +3200
Patrick Reed +3601
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Paul Casey +4200

Rahm stands out among the field for several reasons, which is why he’s listed as the favorite. Not only is he coming off a win at Torrey Pines, he would have won the Memorial in his previous start if not for a WD due to COVID. He also placed among the top-10 at the PGA Championship. Taking into account his recent form and his success on links layouts, it’s easy to back him.

However, I’m not convinced Rahm is over claiming his maiden major title and there are too many great players in the field. It’s just hard to go back-to-back in majors with the talent-level increased. Rory McIlroy is another fine links player and former Open champion, but he’s been off his game recently.

The course doesn’t play to Bryson DeChambeau’s game and with him working in a new caddie there are more question marks surrounding him. His aggressive style could play to his advantage this week and he has plenty of upside. But I just don’t think the reward outweighs the risk.

Going off results in major championship events it’s hard to overlook what Brooks Koepka and Schauffele have done in their careers. Koepka takes his game to another level when the stakes are highest and Schauffele just hasn’t been able to finish the deal. The X-man is a polished links player, though, and this could be his time.

There is another former Open champion who’s been on a roll lately. Jordan Spieth has overcome the problems that plagued his game for a few years to run off a string of success. He finished among the top-10 in eight of his last 13 starts with six of those doubling as top-5s. And he also has a good history on the links putting him in a strong position.

The Open Championship Pick: Jordan Spieth
Top-10 Lock: Xander Schauffele
Top-20 Lock: Jon Rahm

Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today.

- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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