NFL Betting – New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The New Orleans Saints got a gift last week from their closest pursuers in the NFC South and now they can clinch a third straight division title with a win over the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving night and a Carolina loss over the weekend. The Saints also have a bone to pick with the Falcons, who strolled into the Superdome a few weeks ago and thumped the hosts, 26-9, as a 14-point dog, ending a three-game losing streak in the series. That started a two-game winning streak for the Falcons giving them a false sense of hope. The streak ended with a loss to Tampa Bay last week. The Saints hit the board as a 5-point favorite on the NFL betting line.

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Date and Time: Thursday, November 28, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Opening NFL Odds: New Orleans -5, O/U 48

Saints at Falcons TV Coverage: NBC

Odds Analysis

The Saints are getting a lot of support from the betting public with the opening line of -5 getting wagered as high as -7 before settling at -6.5. The Saints had covered in five straight before losing outright to the Falcons three weeks ago. They also got a few breaks from the Panthers last week, winning 34-31 but failing to cover as a 10-point favorite. The Saints have been a good bet going 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS. They’ve won and covered four in a row on the road after losing to the Rams in Week 2. Atlanta won and covered two in a row after its bye, including the win in the Big Easy. The run ended last week with a 35-22 loss to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point dog. Overall the Falcons are 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS.

New Orleans Saints

Thanks to some major eff ups by the Panthers last week, New Orleans escaped with a 34-31 victory and are that close to winning a third straight division title. The Saints had never won two division titles in a row until this current streak with a four-game lead and five to play. There’s also the revenge factor. They saw their three-game winning streak over the Falcons end a few weeks ago with an ugly display in a 26-9 loss. The Saints compiled just 310 total yards and failed to score a touchdown, a rarity for a team that consistently ranks among the league leaders in scoring.

Even with that poor effort the Saints have looked good since Drew Brees returned from injury. In those four games Brees has completed 76.5 percent of his throws (124 of 162) for 1,199 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. The return of Brees also reenergized Michael Thomas, who has 42 receptions and three touchdowns in the last four games. The Saints scored at least 31 points in three of those four games and currently rank ninth in the NFL in scoring at 24.7 points per game.

There are some concerns on the offensive line with starter Terron Armstead out for Thursday’s encounter. He joins Andrus Peat on the sideline leaving the Saints without their starting tackles. Brees was sacked six times and hit 11 times by the Falcons in the Week 10 loss. Sean Payton will make the proper adjustments, like he always seems to do.

Atlanta Falcons

Injuries have cost the Falcons a shot at having a decent season and Dan Quinn could be in jeopardy of losing his job. With only three wins, Atlanta is on pace to have the worst season in Quinn’s tenure and they are looking at back-to-back losing seasons. It wasn’t supposed to be that way, but the offense has been decimated and the defense just hasn’t lived up to higher expectations.

There were signs that a late season flurry would turn things around. The Falcons won in New Orleans 26-9 a few weeks ago as a 14-point dog and followed that with a 29-3 decision over Carolina. But the good times ended last week when the defense was exposed in a 35-22 loss to the Buccaneers. The Falcons have one of the worst defensive teams in the league yielding 376.3 yards and 27 points per game.

Tight end Austin Hooper, tied for the team lead with six TD receptions, is out, Julio Jones is dealing with a shoulder injury and is questionable, and Devonta Freeman is expected to play after missing last week’s game. The offense hasn’t been able to get any traction this season, though Matt Ryan has put up decent numbers. He’s thrown for nearly 3,000 yards for the third-ranked pass offense.

Bet Saints at Falcons at BookMaker.eu

You can beat the Saints down once, but they have too many weapons to let that happen again. Brees has been special since his return from a thumb injury and he’s made Thomas and Alvin Kamara better. New Orleans hurt themselves in the first meeting with stupid penalties and I don’t think that’s going to happen again. Give me the Saints minus the points and the over.

NFL Score Prediction: New Orleans 30, Atlanta 21

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