NFL Betting – New England Patriots at Houston Texans 2019

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The NFL schedule makers are playing a cruel joke on the Houston Texans. Two weeks after getting thumped by the Baltimore Ravens, they get another test on Sunday night when the AFC-best New England Patriots visit. At least the Texans had a break in between matchups with the two best teams in the conference, taking down the Colts last week to grab first place in the South. The lead is tenuous, though, and the Texans have lost eight in a row overall to the Pats with their only win in the series coming back in 2010. New England hit the board as a 4.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line.

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New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Date and Time: Sunday, December 1, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Opening NFL Odds: New England -4.5, O/U 44.5

Patriots at Texans TV Coverage: NBC

Odds Analysis

The Patriots improved to 10-1 SU with another impressive defensive showing in a 13-9 win over Dallas last week. The Pats failed to cover the 5.5-point closing line, though, and dropped to 7-4 ATS. According to Tom Brady the Pats are not playing their best football and haven’t for a few weeks, but they continue to win behind a record-setting defense. They played below the total in their last two and the under is 8-3. The Texans are 4-1 SU at home, however they are just 1-4 ATS with the under 4-1 in their five home tilts. The total for this one opened at 44.5 and currently sits at 45.

New England Patriots

Brady may be the best quarterback of all time, but the Pats have been winning behind a defense that allows just 256.4 yards per game and leads the league with 10.6 points allowed per outing. They’ve given up more than 14 points in a game just once, that coming in their 37-20 loss to the Ravens a few weeks ago. Then again Lamar Jackson has carved up a lot of teams this season.

Since that loss, the only one of the season, the Pats have allowed a total of 19 points in wins over Philadelphia and Dallas. That was enough for them to prevail, but the games were close since Brady and the offense managed just 30 points in those games. Not much has been needed from Brady and Co. since the D has been lights out. Since allowing a season-high 276 passing yards to the Steelers on opening night only two teams have topped the 200-yard mark.

New England has the second-best pass defense in the league with Stephon Gilmore leading the secondary. Gilmore held Dallas’ top receiver Amari Cooper without a catch last week and snared his fourth pick of the season. Devin McCourty leads the NFL with five picks and the Pats top the league with 20 interceptions and 29 takeaways.

Houston Texans

The Texans have had a decent run winning three of the previous four AFC South titles, but they’ve never really been considered a threat in the conference. A lot of that stems from the fact that they haven’t beaten the Pats in their last eight attempts. A 41-7 loss at Baltimore a few weeks ago is another sign that they aren’t quite there yet. They got a boost last week from the return of Will Fuller, who had seven catches for 140 yards in his first action since Week 7.

Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins form a lethal duo to try and attack New England’s stingy defense. The two combined for 13 receptions and 234 yards with Hopkins adding a pair of scores in the 20-17 win over the Colts, which put the Texans all alone in first. Deshaun Watson is having another good season with 2,899 passing yards and 20 touchdowns with seven interceptions. The Texans average 381.6 yards per game good for seventh in the NFL.

Houston will have to run the football and Watson could be a problem for the Pats defenders, who struggled to contain Jackson. The Ravens rushed for 210 yards with Jackson going for 61 and a pair of touchdowns on 16 carries. Mark Ingram had 115 yards on 15 attempts. Watson hasn’t run as much this season amassing 301 yards and 5.2 yards per carry with five touchdowns.

Bet Patriots at Texans at BookMaker.eu

Houston hasn’t had much success against the Pats losing eight in a row, including a pair of playoff blowouts, and going just 2-6 ATS in those outings. Watson could give the Pats trouble with his legs, but I don’t think Houston has enough firepower to dent the New England defense. And I don’t anticipate Brady and the offense struggling much more than they have in recent games. The under is the proper play with the Pats covering the current line of -3.

NFL Score Prediction: New England 23, Houston 17

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