Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 3 Odds

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

Just a few seasons ago these teams hooked up in the NFC Championship. There’s a chance both make a return trip, which would be the third straight for the Green Bay Packers. This season got off to rocky start with the Pack getting waxed by New Orleans in the opener when they failed to score a touchdown. But as he’s done most of his career, Aaron Rodgers responded with a strong game and Green Bay leveled its record with a thumping of Detroit last week. The San Francisco 49ers won twice on the road but paid the price with a number of injuries impacting their running back group. Still, the Niners are a 3-point favorite for their return to the Bay Area.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Date and Time: Sunday, September 26, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Opening NFL Odds: San Francisco -3.5, O/U 48.5
Packers at 49ers TV Coverage: NBC

Odds Analysis

Despite injury issues that leave depth at running back in question, the Niners opened as a 3.5-point favorite. The number has since been wagered down a half-point with some buy back on the Packers. I guess it’s easy to question Green Bay after getting thumped 35-3 in the opener and playing a listless first half against Detroit. They were much better in the second half outscoring the Lions 21-0, but questions still remain. The teams have split four games over the last three seasons with the Niners going 3-1 ATS, including a 37-20 win in the 2019 NFC title game. The total spiked to 50.5 after hitting the board at 48.5. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by two touchdowns or more with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four encounters and 9-3 over the last 12.

Green Bay Packers

It’s going to take more than a half to prove that the Packers are back, but what a half it was for Rodgers and his mates. The NFL’s highest scoring offense a season ago was held to a field goal in the season opener with Rodgers having probably the worst game of his career. He completed only 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with two interceptions. It was so bad that Rodgers took a seat in the fourth quarter with Jordan Love getting some snaps.

It took Green Bay until nearly four minutes remained in the first quarter last week to score its first touchdown of the season, and it was a familiar connection all game. Rodgers hit Aaron Jones with a short scoring pass to tie the game, they connected again with a few minutes left in the second quarter and once again late in the third to salt the game away. Rodgers hit on 22 of 27 attempts with 235 yards and four touchdowns.

The Pack made some changes on defense during the offseason bringing in Joe Barry as the new coordinator. The group was torched by five Jameis Winston touchdown passes and had a weak first half showing against the Lions. Just like their mates on the other side of the football, the defense responded by pitching a shutout over the last 30 minutes making all the off-season drama a moot point.

San Francisco 49ers

Their chance of repeating as NFC champs blew up in a hurry when major injuries to key players torpedoed last season and the Niners won only six games. If they didn’t have bad luck they would have had no luck at all, or something like that. Anyway, injuries heal and the Niners entered this season as a favorite to win the tough NFC West and the conference title. Don’t go crowning them just yet, though, because once again the injuries are piling up.

The opening road trip was a success with wins over Detroit and Philadelphia, but the team is looking for depth at running back after losing Raheem Mostert for the season in the opener and watching JaMycal Hasty, Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon get banged up. Hasty will not play while the others are questionable. That could affect the game plan for Sunday night since the Niners are a run heavy team.

They would also like to keep the ball away from Rodgers and the Packers offense. That could be more difficult with a few ailments on the defensive side of the football. Dre Greenlaw, who started the opener and had a pick-six, was placed on IR as was Jason Verrett. Josh Norman and Emmanuel Moseley were also injured last week and are listed as questionable.

Bet Packers at 49ers at BookMaker.eu

The points against for both teams last week were low, but when you peel away the layers there were some underlying problems. The Niners gave up a bunch of yards playing prevent against Detroit and were outgained by the Eagles. Green Bay pitched a second half shutout after allowing 52 points over the first six quarters. There have been entertaining games with plenty of points in the series and I don’t expect that to change making the OVER enticing.

NFL Score Prediction: Packers 27, 49ers 24

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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