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3 Keys to Betting NFL Totals

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Apr/03/2020

As the NFL Draft draws nearer, and without March Madness or baseball to occupy our time, sports fans and bettors find themselves looking forward to September. The return of the NFL, and sports betting at its finest. One of the simplest forms of betting NFL games is betting on total scores. Here are three keys that you need to know before placing your bets.

Betting the total in NFL games is pretty cut and dry. If the combined total score is 50, you can bet the over or the under. All depending on many factors and team trends. You’ll find that most bettors prefer either the over or the under and don’t often bet the other way. I have no logical explanation for this, but to each his own(I’m an over bettor myself).

Before placing my bets on the over or the under, there are three things that I like to take a look at. Just a few stats and numbers that can be easily googled and may assist you in winning on Sundays come September. Let’s get started, shall we?

Matchups

Betting the total is more than just looking for good offense that will produce high scoring games, or good defenses that produce low scoring games. Though that can also be a factor. Oftentimes final scores in the NFL are dictated by individual matchups that take place all over the field, all game long.

For instance, if Mike Evans is leading the Bucs in receiving, and the Bucs offense has been clicking in all cylinders, you may be inclined to bet the over if they’re playing another powerful offense. However, if Evans has to go one on one with a “Revis Island” type of defensive back, he may only see the ball a few times.

A lot of times, I will check not only one on one matchups, but also both teams ability to stop the pass and the run. Betting the total is more a defensive sport than it is offensive, whether you bet the over or the under.

Team Trends

Many ranking and stat sites such as Scoresandstats reference and Team Rankings will give you not only player and team stats, but betting trends as well. Check and see how often each team has hit the over or under on the season. Although the total and the opponent change from week to week, trends are trends for a reason.

Much like BABIP in baseball, the team trend may be more telling than the leagues overall trend, though you can check that as well. Not only will some of these sites break down the trends for you, but also break it down into smaller sample sizes such as the teams most recent 1 or 3 games, home/away, underdog or favored, etc.

The Golden Rule

Or in this case, we can call it, “The Green Rule.” That’s right, folks. The most important of the three keys, and the reason we all enjoy sports betting. How much money am I making. Different teams, different totals, different pay per heads are all going to offer different money.

Be sure you are getting your money's worth. If there’s roughly a 50/50 shot of hitting the over or under, at least make sure you’re getting 2:1 odds. If you’re a member of multiple sportsbooks, check the totals and odds on all of them before making a decision. Remember, one point or one dollar can make all the difference. Good luck and happy betting. We hope to see you placing your bets at PayPerHead247; our favorite pay per head bookie site!

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