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John McCain Still Just Shy of 40 Percent Chance to Win Says Prediction Market

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Sep/05/2008
John McCain

By most accounts, the Republican Senator out of Arizona, John McCain, delivered an inspiring speech at Thursday night's closing of the Republican Convention in Minneapolis. McCain is challenging Illinois Senator Barack Obama to take over the White House this November.

Since the conventions started, the odds have hardly changed even with the much anticipated announcement of each man's running mate.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has drawn unprecedented media attention - albeit not all good. Her Wednesday night speech was widely heralded as one that likely helped unite the Republican party and, in particular, the conservative base.

McCain's speech was more subdued, less theatrical in its delivery and he provided a glimpse into his plan for fixing the US economy and the current ill-fated health care system.

McCain, a POW and true American hero turned political rebel, vowed Thursday night to vanquish the "constant partisan rancor" that grips Washington as he launched his fall campaign for the White House. "Change is coming," he promised the roaring Republican National Convention and a prime-time television audience.

"Fight with me. Fight with me. Fight with me. Fight for what's right for our country," he said in a convention crescendo.

By the end of his speech and heading into the wee hours of Friday morning, McCain still held just shy of a 40 percent chance of winning the US Presidency based on numbers found at the online prediction market, Intrade.com. At BetCRIS.com - arguably the sharpest of online bookmakers due to its huge ensemble of professional clientele - the news was slightly better for McCain where Obama slipped back down to a -195 favorite from -205. McCain would pay $150 for every $100 bet.

BetCRIS CEO Mickey Richardson predicted two weeks ago that McCain would become the next President of the United States. That same day Richardson accepted a $20,000 bet on McCain to win. He also correctly predicted Joe Biden as Obama's running mate.

It remained to be seen the true impact of McCain's heartfelt speech.

52 percent of those polled at AOL.com rated McCain's speech as "Excellent" and another 19 percent as "Good". Only 16 percent rated it poor. More than 26,000 votes were calculated by midnight, two hours after the speech had concluded.

McCain appears to have won over countless new supporters following his speech with 64 percent saying their opinion of the GOP candidate had changed for the better.

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