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John McCain Odds at All Time High Online Prediction Markets Report

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Sep/05/2008
John McCain

Senator John McCain's chances at the White House hit an all-time high Friday morning behind record volumes on the Intrade.com presidential prediction markets. As of 10:00 AM EST, a frenzy of activity had driven McCain up 13% over the past 24 hours to an all-time high of 46.5. More than 27,000 McCain shares had traded, more than twice yesterday's then-record volume of 10,090.

These numbers were echoed across the entire gamut of the online gambling stratosphere.

Bookmaker.com - part of the oldest established North American facing prediction markets, BetCRIS.com - has driven Barack Obama's odds down to -180 following the McCain Thursday night speech. This is similarly the lowest number on Obama yet after the Democratic hopeful had lingered between a -190 and -210 favorite over the past few weeks. McCain's odds were slashed from +160 to +150 for a payout potential of $150 on every $100 bet.

Governor Sarah Palin has solidified her spot on the ticket after a tumultuous start, according to Intrade. Markets show that her chances of being dropped from the ticket dropped by 74% after a dramatic acceptance speech Wednesday. The market closed yesterday at 4.9 with over $150k traded since opening on Tuesday. Just prior to her speech Wednesday night, online bookmakers across Europe including Ireland's largest betting firm, Paddy Power, slashed Palin's odds of dropping off the ticket from 20/1 to 8/1.

More than $26million has now been traded on Intrade's presidential markets this election cycle, with $12million on McCain.

Bookmaker.com does not release its financials to the public, however, Gambling911.com has estimated that at least $1 million should be wagered on the US Presidential race on Election Day alone for each of the larger online gambling firms like Bookmaker.com that offer such betting.

The 2004 US Presidential election was the single largest nonsporting event ever bet on and the 2008 US Presidential race will easily top that record.

"The Democratic party needs to be very worried after McCain's speech," warned Payton O'Brien, Senior Editor of the Gambling911.com website, which monitors political prediction markets throughout the day.  "Public web polls show that McCain's speech had a positive effect overall and this is very much reflected in Friday afternoon's prediction market odds."

Prediction markets have proven to be especially accurate in determining outcomes of political elections especially as the event gets nearer. 

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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher

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