Iowa Electronic Markets Say Democrats Are Doomed

Written by:
Aaron Goldstein
Published on:

It’s the closest thing to political betting and perfectly legal, so says  The Iowa Electronic Markets have the Democrats projected to lose badly come next week. 


For more than 20 years, the Iowa Electronic Markets have let Internet users buy and sell "shares" in political propositions -- for example, RH_NRS10 in the chart above stands for the proposition that Republicans will control the House and non-Republicans (Democrats and independents) will hang onto a Senate majority. You could buy into that proposition today at around 73 cents a share. If that's the way the election turns out, you receive $1 per share. If the outcome is different, you get zip. Nada. Nothing. is a betting site based out of Ireland that takes bets from U.S. citizens.  Its customers are betting 90 cents on a proposition that pays off $1 if the Republicans win the House.

Among the more high profile Democrats likely to lose according to the prediction markets is Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader.  He stood just a 35 percent chance of winning against Sharron Angle, those these numbers are not necessarily reflected in polling. 

The new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada Senate race has Angle leading Reid by just four points with a 4 point margin of error.  She had led by three points last week.

- Aaron Goldstein, 

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