Bet on How Will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels Hush Money Felony Trial Will End and When

Written by:
t c jackson
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Key takeaways:

The prediction market Manifold has forecast that former US president Donald Trump will be found guilty of at least one crime by a jury of his peers in the so-called "Stormy Daniels Hush Money" trial.


About the Trump Stormy Daniels Hush Money Trial

The case involves an alleged affair between Donald Trump and porn star Stormy Daniels as well as a claim that "hush money" payments were made by Trump to Daniels to buy her silence during Trump's 2016 campaign for US presidency.  Trump has denied any affair or having knowledge of such payments.  There are also allegations that the former president falsified business records to further bury the story in the run-up to the election.  The trial is taking place in Manhattan and is not being televised as New York State does not permit cameras in the court room.

Gambling websites have mostly been slow to jump on offering trial odds due to the lack of cameras in the court room.  Last week, BetOnline began offering odds on who would appear next along side Trump at his trial after prominent GOP figures began joining former President Donald Trump's growing entourage.

House Speaker Mike Johnson accompanied Trump to the criminal court on Tuesday morning. Alongside Johnson, other notable attendees included North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Vivek Ramaswamy, as well as Florida Congressmen Byron Donalds and Cory Mills.

They followed Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, who made an appearance on Monday.


Trial Outcome Odds

The Manifold model social prediction betting game has Trump being found guilty of at least one crime at -317 or 76%, a pretty heavy favorite for this to occur.  In other words, we could be looking at the first ever president of the United States convicted of a felony.

The odds of a mistrial were coming in at +669 or 13%.

There is some obvious value in a dismissal with the payment being $10,000 on a $100 bet at 1%.


Will Trump Testify?

Donald Trump almost certainly will not testify in his criminal hush money trial as the case heads towards jury deliberations later this week, according to sources speaking to The Washington Post on Sunday.

He is currently facing 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a bid to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels.

It is not yet known whether Trump's defense team will present any other witnesses.

Mr Trump’s abstention from testimony may hardly be a surprise.

Despite his boastful assertations that he would testify (as recently as last month), the former president’s own legal team is widely thought to consider that route to be a mistake.  Source: Yahoo News

Manifold Forecasting Model

Manifold claims to be a very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability.

"By using the combined wisdom of thousands of users, we outperform real-money platforms. For example, in the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all prediction markets and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance."

Resolution Details

Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict: A jury declares Trump guilty of at least one crime.

Mistrial: The trial is declared a mistrial due to a hung jury (jury can't reach a unanimous verdict), procedural error, or misconduct. Resolves regardless of whether the case is retried.

Not guilty (of any crimes) by jury verdict: A jury clears Trump of all crimes

Plea bargain: Trump agrees to any sort of plea bargain, ending the trial. If there is a plea bargain on some charges, and a jury later rules Trump not guilty on the remaining charges, the market still resolves to "not guilty by jury verdict".

Dismissal / dropped charges: A judge drops all the charges, ending the trial, or dismisses the case for another reason. Includes the prosecution dropping charges with no plea deal.

If there is an outcome that is not enumerated here, I reserve the right to split resolution or resolve N/A, but I will try my best not to. I will not bet. This market is about the initial lawsuit, not any appeals or retrials.


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