Thursday Night NFL Preseason Preview

Two games are on tonight’s NFL betting board featuring two of the AFC’s expected contenders yet playing as road underdogs at Sportsbook.com. The Indianapolis Colts are 3.5 point underdogs as they take on the Buffalo Bills in Toronto. In the other contest, the New England Patriots (+2.5) travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons.

Indianapolis @ Buffalo

Sportsbook.com Line: Buffalo -3.5 Total: 34

Peyton Manning showed his MVP form in the Colts’ opener against the 49ers, going 8-for-10 for 91 yards while leading his team to 10 points in two series. The offense struggled when Manning turned the reins over to backup Curtis Painter, who proceeded to throw 3 INT in a 37-17 loss to the 49ers. The Colts are now 4-19 in their last 23 preseason games.

The Bills are coming off of a 42-17 thrashing at the hands of the Redskins in their preseason opener. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the top performer at QB for Buffalo, completing 9 of 14 passes for 61 yards and a TD without throwing a pick. Trent Edwards connected on half of his 12 pass attempts for a total of 58 yards and an INT. Bills RBs Fred Jackson (hand) and Marshawn Lynch (ankle) are both out for this game and likely longer, which should lead to more carries for all-purpose rookie C.J. Spiller out of Clemson. Spiller carried the ball four times for 16 yards against the Redskins.

Painter can’t play much worse than he did in the Colts’ opener and it would seem unlikely that the defending AFC Champs would remain winless after this one against a depleted sub-par team.

Don’t ignore this betting system as you handicap the contest:

·         Play On - Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, winless in the preseason. (21-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84%, +16.6 units. Rating = 2*).

New England @ Atlanta

Sports.com Line: Atlanta -2.5 Total: 37

The Patriots and Falcons are both coming off of solid wins in their preseason openers. For the second straight week, the Patriots are holding joint practice sessions with their upcoming opponent, having done the same thing last week with the Saints. Tom Brady was efficient (5-for-8, 67 yards in two series) in a 27-24 win over the Saints, but suffered a finger injury on his throwing hand. In typical Patriots fashion, the extent of the injury is unknown. Despite having participated in a majority of training sessions after undergoing major knee surgery in the offseason, Wes Welker did not play in the opener and probably will not suit up on Thursday either.

Matt Ryan played just two series in the Falcons’ 20-10 win over the Chiefs, completing three of six pass attempts, including a pair of third-down conversions to Tony Gonzalez. Michael Turner had a solid performance, gaining 29 yards on just four carries with a long of 10.

The Patriots stifled the Falcons offense in Week 3 of the 2009 regular season, posting a convincing 26-10 win in Foxboro. However, that game was played in less than ideal weather conditions with periods of heavy rain over the course of the afternoon.

Keep an eye on the following trend as it affects this contest, since Atlanta’s preseason mindset has been different than most teams over the years…ATLANTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993. The average score was ATLANTA 19.5, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 1*). Typically the Falcons have shown a desire to establish a winning attitude in the preseason.

Bet on the NFL at Sportsbook.com this season and take advantage of the $100,000 Perfect Parlay and $50,000 Survivor Pool.

MLB: Boston has their brooms out

The LA Angels are hovering around the .500 mark as they head into Thursday’s game versus the Boston Red Sox. Los Angeles is an imperfect 0-9 versus the Red Sox this season. Sportsbook.com believe it will happen, as they currently have Josh Beckett and the Sox as -145 favorites.

There may be enough reasons to suspect the season sweep won’t happen though. First off, Boston (69-52) hasn't won more than three straight games since June. Secondly, Beckett has been hit hard in both of his last two starts, yielding 13 runs in 9-2/3 innings against Texas and the Yankees. Thirdly, there are several strong betting systems and trends favoring the Angels in tonight’s matchup.

The system reads as follows and focuses on Beckett’s struggles:

·         Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL). (35-15 since 1997.) (70%, +31.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The Angels will turn to Ervin Santana (12-8, 3.99 ERA) to cool off the Boston bats. The right-hander pitched well at Fenway on May 4, limiting the Red Sox to one run over seven innings, but wound up without a decision in a 5-1 loss. He is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts versus Boston. Santana has won four of his last five starts overall, including a 7-2 home victory Saturday over Toronto in which he allowed one run, three hits and four walks in seven innings. He also boasts a strong performance record against the league’s best recently:

·         SANTANA is 15-5 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was SANTANA 5.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)

Besides the current opponent, the other good news for the Red Sox is that they got 2008 AL MVP Dustin Pedroia back from a broken left foot Tuesday. They have been dealing with injury problems all season long and found out on Wednesday that Mike Cameron will have season-ending surgery to repair a torn abdominal muscle. Fellow outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury also may not play again this year after re-aggravating a broken rib in his back last week.

The Red Sox won 7-5 on Wednesday night, improving to 9-0 in the season series with Los Angeles. Boston has averaged 7.3 runs while batting .327 in those games.

The Angels, meanwhile, will now try to avoid their fifth losing streak this season of at least four games. Two of the previous four skids concluded with sweeps at the hands of Boston.

The total for Thursday’s game is set at 9.5, and that wagering option also shows a unique trend relating to Boston’s dominance in the series:

·         SCIOSCIA is 14-4 OVER (+9.5 Units) in road games revenging 6 or more straight losses vs opponent in last 2 years as the manager of LA ANGELS. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.5, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 1*)

Now that you have the key numbers for tonight’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com to get your bets in.