Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Bears vs. Dolphins

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Nov/18/2010
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Bears vs. Dolphins

This Thursday Night Football betting preview for the Bears vs. Dolphins is courtesy of Sportsbook.com. 

The Bears vs. Dolphins Lines were: Miami -1, Total: 40

The 6-3 Bears head to Miami tonight as one-point underdogs to take on the 5-4 Dolphins. Due to injuries to Chad Pennington (shoulder) and Chad Henne (knee), Tyler Thigpen will start under center for the Fins.

Thigpen might not get the protection he requires because two key offensive linemen might not play. LT Jake Long is questionable with a torn labrum in his shoulder and C Joe Berger’s status is uncertain due to a knee injury. This could allow the Bears to actually tally some sacks for a change. Only Tampa Bay and Cincinnati have fewer than Chicago’s 13 sacks this year.

But despite the non-existent pass rush, the Bears defense has been formidable this year. They lead the league in turnovers forced (24) and rank second in both scoring defense (16.2 PPG) and rushing defense (82 YPG). On the offensive side of the ball, Chicago has not been efficient, ranking 23rd in rushing (95 YPG) and 21st in passing offense (202 YPG). QB Jay Cutler has six touchdowns and seven interceptions in his past five games, while RB Matt Forte has a dismal 170 combined rushing yards and a 3.2 YPC average in his past four games.

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Thigpen played very well after Miami’s top two quarterbacks left last week’s 29-17 win over Tennessee. He went 4-for-6 for 64 yards and a touchdown to cap off an 85-yard drive that sealed the win for the Dolphins. For his four-year career, Thigpen has played 19 games and completed 54.3% of his passes for 2,811 yards, 20 TD and 16 INT. Most of his experience came in 2008 with Kansas City when Thigpen played 14 games and threw for 2,608 yards, 18 TD and 12 INT. Thigpen will look to get Brandon Marshall more involved in the passing game. Marshall has been bothered recently with a hamstring injury, but he only has one touchdown in nine games this season. Over the past four weeks, Marshall has a paltry 18 receptions for 185 yards (10.3 average).

These teams have only played twice since 2000, with Miami winning both games easily, 27-9 in 2002 and 31-13 in 2006. Additionally, this NFL betting trend indicates that point spread bettors might find better value on the home team.

Play Against - Any team (CHICAGO) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced, after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.

(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Given the aforementioned stats and betting trends, it is a bit surprising that 60 percent of the Bears vs. Dolphins point spread money is on Chicago.

For those looking to make a play on the ‘total’, take the following football betting trend into consideration before placing your wager:

MIAMI is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MIAMI 25.4, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 3*).

To check out all of the Bears vs. Dolphins betting odds and to take a look at the NFL Week 11 point spreads, head over to Sportsbook.com now.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

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