Super Bowl 2015 Betting Preview

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Super Bowl 2015 Betting Preview

Carrie Stroup here with your Super Bowl 2015 betting preview for the Patriots vs. Seahawks.  Place your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet FREE here.


Super Bowl XLIX
University of Phoenix Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 1 at 6:30 p.m. ET Line: New England -1.5, Total: 48.5

The NFL season comes to a close on Sunday, Feb. 1 when the Patriots and Seahawks collide in a battle of No. 1 seeds in Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona.

New England hosted the Colts in the AFC Championship and won the game 45-7 as 7-point home favorites. Seattle barely escaped Green Bay in a 28-22 overtime victory as 9-point home favorites in the NFC Championship. The Seahawks trailed 19-7 with less than three minutes remaining in the game and miraculously were able to score a touchdown and recover an onside kick to score another touchdown before eventually winning in overtime.

The last time the Patriots played the Seahawks was on Oct. 14, 2012, when Seattle came back from a 13-point deficit with eight minutes remaining to win 24-23 as a 4-point home underdog. Both of these teams have turned to the ground game over the past few weeks, and they’ll both be trying to control the tempo in the biggest game of the year. Teams that win the time-of-possession battle in the Super Bowl are 35-13 SU (34-11-3 ATS) and teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 37-11 SU (34-11-3 ATS).

The Patriots are 8-2 ATS off one or more straight overs this season, and 10-1 ATS versus excellent offenses (375+ YPG) in the past three seasons. New England is also 26-9 ATS after gaining 175+ rushing yards in its previous game since 1992. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 9-1 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play in two consecutive games over the past three seasons. They are also 13-4 ATS off a home win over the past two years, and 14-3 ATS versus defenses allowing 235+ passing YPG in the second half of the season under head coach Pete Carroll. The Patriots could be missing starting C Bryan Stork (knee), while S Jeron Johnson (elbow) and OT Justin Britt (knee) are both questionable for Seattle, but S Earl Thomas (shoulder) and CB Richard Sherman (elbow) are both considered probable.

The Patriots offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, averaging 40.0 PPG in the team’s two playoff games. QB Tom Brady (4,109 pass yards, 33 TD, 9 INT in regular season) has thrown for six touchdowns and just two interceptions in the postseason. New England needed to throw the ball more often against the Ravens than they did the Colts, but this team is capable of mixing it up.

Against Indianapolis, the Patriots featured a run-heavy attack, and RB LeGarrette Blount (266 rush yards, 2 TD in regular season) rushed 30 times for 148 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots will likely feature him heavily against a Seahawks team that has surrendered at least 130 rushing yards in both playoff wins, giving up 4.5 yards per carry.

If Blount can’t get it going though, the Patriots will have no issues throwing the ball towards TE Rob Gronkowski (82 rec, 1,124 yards, 12 TD in regular season) and WR Julian Edelman (92 rec, 972 yards, 4 TD in regular season). Gronkowski has caught a touchdown pass in each of the past five games and Edelman has caught at least seven passes in each of the past six contests. Edelman is Brady’s security blanket and he is coming off of a game against Indianapolis in which he caught nine passes for 98 yards and also rushed for 12 on his only carry. The Patriots are also confusing teams with a number of unique formations and it should come as no surprise if any of New England’s linemen end up catching some passes in this one.

Defensively, this team was dominant against the Colts last week, forcing three turnovers against Andrew Luck’s offense and holding them to just 209 total yards in the process. This secondary will now look to put some pressure on Russell Wilson, who threw four interceptions in the Seahawks’ victory over the Packers.

Seattle's season appeared to be over against Green Bay in the NFC Championship, but they ended up pulling out one of the most amazing wins in postseason history. QB Russell Wilson (3,475 pass yards, 20 TD, 7 INT in regular season) threw four interceptions in the game, but he did rush for one touchdown and threw the game-winning TD pass in overtime to WR Jermaine Kearse (38 rec, 537 yards, 1 TD in regular season). Wilson will need to use his legs and his arm to move the ball against this Patriots defense. Their secondary is outstanding in one-on-one coverage, but if Wilson can extend plays with his legs then he should be able to give his receivers a chance to get open.

WR Doug Baldwin (66 rec, 825 yards, 3 TD in regular season) is Wilson’s go-to-guy in the passing game. He caught six passes for 106 yards in the victory over the Packers, but should see plenty of time lined up against CB Darrelle Revis (2 INT in regular season) in this one. Revis was able to pick off Andrew Luck in the Patriots’ AFC Championship victory, and Wilson will avoid throwing at the stud corner when he can.

With New England being an excellent team when defending the pass, Seattle will rely even more on RB Marshawn Lynch (1,306 rush yards, 13 TD in regular season) in this game. Lynch rushed for 157 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the Packers. He’ll be featured just as much against a Patriots defense that had allowed more than 100 rushing yards in three straight games before blowing out the Colts.

Defensively, the Seattle secondary is extremely banged up, but this is a very tough group, and its size and speed should make things difficult on Tom Brady in this game. The Seahawks run defense will need to work on some things in the next two weeks, as they’ve been shredded by opposing backs throughout the course of the postseason and can’t afford to allow LeGarrette Blount to get things going.

- Carrie Stroup, Senior Reporter

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