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Packers-Eagles Prediction: Focus On The Total

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Jan/08/2011
Packers-Eagles Prediction

Gambling911.com had your Packers-Eagles prediction.  This game featured a line of either -2.5 or -3 depending on the particular sportsbook with Philadelphia the home favorite.  Spread action on this game was even but we should note that nearly 80 percent of the money line action was going towards Green Bay to win outright and pay out $12 for every $10 bet.

Trouble For Packers On The Road:  While analysts have routinely touted the Packers as a team everyone else should fear, that’s not necessarily the case away from Lambeau Field.  Five of the Packers six losses occurred on the road.  That said, the Eagles were a mere .500 at home.  Both teams have identical records overall coming into this game.

ESPN.com notes that no team has won the Super Bowl after having a losing record on the road and no sixth seed has represented the NFC on the NFL's biggest stage, so Green Bay (10-6) has plenty working against it after going 3-5 away from home.

Recent Play:  Green Bay has split its last six games, but was also suffering injuries.  Its most recent wins came against two teams with winning records, the Bears and Giants.  Both were at home with the two previous losses on the road.  

Philadelphia has many scratching their heads after a shocking loss to the Vikings at home followed by a loss to the under .500 Dallas Cowboys in Week 17.  That comes following Philadelphia having won 6 of 7 games.  Just remember, the Eagles played horribly against New York until the final quarter in Week 15 before winning.  They only beat Dallas by a field goal the week before.  Philadelphia is hardly a team that brings a whole lot of confidence into the Wildcard Playoffs.   


(more after the jump)

 

Team Edges:  Eagles take too many penalties while the Packers are especially disciplined.

Only the Bears have allowed more sacks than the Eagles this season.  The Packers had six sacks against Philadelphia in an earlier season win against that team.

The Packers' defense allowed just 6.5 yards per passing attempt in the regular season

The Packers had only a 3.8-yards per carry average during the regular season.

The Eagles have one of the most explosive offensives in the league.

Only the Chargers and Steelers finished above Green Bay this season for a higher yard-per-pass-attempt average.

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has been exceptional against the blitz and he will need to be in this game with an aggressive Philadelphia defense.   The Eagles defense struggle in the red zone where Rodgers has excelled.

The Packers allowed 4.7 yards per carry for the season while Philadelphia had 5.4 yards per carry.

Interesting Stat: 6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.  In road games, the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 8 games.  The Under is 5-0-1 in Eagles last 6 playoff home games.  We should note that the game played earlier this season between these two teams went well over the current total.  The total here is 46.5. 

The Gambling911.com Packers-Eagles Prediction:  We like the UNDER 46.5.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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