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Packers-Bears NFC Championship Prediction

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Jan/22/2011
Packers Bears NFC Championship Prediction

Gambling911.com is thrilled to bring you this Packers-Bears NFC Championship game prediction.  The Packers-Bears line was at -3.5 coming into Saturday evening. 

First we are going to review some important trends coming into this game.

Both teams are hot coming into this NFC Championship game.  The Bears have won 8 of their last 10, losing one to Chicago during the final week in what could arguably be considered a game with little meaning for the Bears, yet they still played close up until the final quarter.  Green Bay, on the other hand, had everything on the line.  The Packers just barely squeezed into the Playoffs.

Green Bay is coming into their own just when it matters the most, having won their last four games including to impressive Playoffs victories. 

In head-to-head competition, Green Bay has won three of the last four games.  The home team, however, has won 6 of the last 7.  Two of Green Bay’s wins were against a Chicago team last year with a losing record, the other win was the final week of this season.  Based on head-to-head competition, the spread would seem more important if Chicago were favored, as their last two games against Green Bay were won by just three points.  Green Bay has beaten Chicago by 7 points in their last two wins and by 6 points in the previous game.  The Packers were favored by 3.5 points in Chicago last year and won by 7 points.  This is a dramatically improved Bears team, however. 

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Trending Data:  The most significant trending data includes Green Bay going 1-5 Against The Spread in their last 6 games following a Straight Up win of more than 14 points.  They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite. Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win, 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.  They are, however, just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

For totals bettors, the last 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.  The total in this game is 42.5. 

Other things to considerbefore betting on the Packers-Bears NFC Championship game:

Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers 134.5 passer rtg is on pace to be the second best in a single postseason (min. 60 attempts). Everyone else on this list won the Super Bowl.

This will be the first time under the current 12-teams playoff format that began in 1990 in which two teams from the same division meet for the NFC title. It has happened 3 times in the AFC, most recently in 2008 when the Steelers beat the Ravens.

Turnover differential will be critical, and the Packers cause a lot of them. 

Jay Cutler can expect a lot of overload blitzes and he’s prone to taking risks.  Green Bay is good at making quarterbacks take those types of risks.

Though the Packers have led the league in completions of 30 yards or longer, they have generated few big plays on the ground.

Chicago's front seven on defense last week were phenomenal to say the least. 

The public has been all over the Packers spread at a 70 percent-plus clip.  The Packers are getting the most betting action in the Conference Playoffs and the sportsbooks have the most to lose with a Green Bay cover. 

The Sagarin Ratings indicate the line on this game should be Packers -3 or -2.5.

While the Bears can win, Gambling911.com believes Chicago covers the +3.5 spread even with a Green Bay outright win.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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