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Get ready for the tightest matchup in the NFC, and the closest NFL Divisional Playoff odds of the weekend. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons and Matt Ryan. Ryan puts his 1-loss home record on the line as the winner heads to the NFC Championship game.
Saturday, January 15 @ 8:00pm EST
Odds: Green Bay Packers (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Total: 45
The stakes couldn’t be higher and the spread couldn’t be tighter. Green Bay is coming off an emotional win against Mike Vick and the Eagles, while the Falcons are coming off a well-deserved week of rest.
While Green Bay is only 4-5 SU on the road, they’ve hit the UNDER in 8 of the last 9 away from home as well. Atlanta, on the other hand, is 7-1 in their last 8 as the favorite, and have been crushing the OVER as well – 7 of the last 8 have played over the total. Basically, the Falcons have been scoring, while the Packers have been slowly struggling.
This game features the highly controlled offense of Atlanta behind Michael Turner’s running game and Matt Ryan’s arm. Ryan has thrown for 3700 yards this season to go with his 28 TDs and 9 INTs. Those two have combined to give Atlanta the edge in time of possession, yards gained and Red Zone efficiency.
Atlanta is healthy and poised to win this game. They covered 11 games this season, many of which as the favorite. When the two teams slugged it out in November, the Falcons came away as 3-point home victors – this covered the -2.5 spread. That game played under the 47.5 point total, which suggests why this game comes in at 45.
Atlanta has only lost 1 game in the last 10 and have covered 8 of them. The loss was a 3-pointer to the Saints.
The Packers won their final two of the regular season (against the Bears and Giants), and have essentially been in playoff mode since Week 15. When you factor in the week of rest for the Falcons, that’s a major difference in preparation between the squads.
This is the tightest set of NFL Divisional Playoff odds of the weekend, but the clear advantage is for the home team Falcons. Getting them at less than a field goal is a steal. Take Matt Ryan’s impressive home record and give up the 2.5 points.
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- Tim Furious, Gambling911.com
