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The New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills spread had the Bills as a home favorite of -2 after this line initially opened at -1.
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Buffalo -2 & 44
Opening Line & Total: Bills -1 & 44.5
The Bills look to build upon last week’s shutout win when they host division rival New York who is just one game behind them in the AFC East standings.
The Bills have made major strides on offense this year, but this will be their toughest test of the season so far. Jets CB Darrelle Revis has been as good as ever, though QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s tendency to spread the wealth could allow them to work around Revis Island. Buffalo RB Fred Jackson has been outstanding running behind an overachieving line, and they’ll be going against an underachieving Jets front seven that was elite against the run a year ago. New York will likely try to establish the run and control the clock against a Bills front seven that will be without All-Pro DT Kyle Williams (foot). The Jets have won five of the past six meetings (4-2 ATS) including a sweep last year when they won 38-7 and 38-14 in Buffalo.
The Jets are coming off a bye week, and they have certainly gotten it together after a three-game losing skid (all on the road), beating Miami and San Diego in back-to-back home games. QB Mark Sanchez tossed three touchdowns against the Chargers, giving him 12 TD and 6 INT this season. Sanchez was intercepted a career-high five times when he first faced Buffalo in 2009, but has 3 TD and 0 INT the past two times he has played the Bills. When New York visited Buffalo last year, the running game went crazy, as both LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene gained over 115 yards, combining for 250 yards on 6.1 YPC and 2 TD. But this year has been a different story for the Jets’ ground game (92 YPG, ranked 28th in NFL), as Tomlinson and Greene have combined for a 3.7 YPC average and two rushing touchdowns. However, Greene is starting to hit his stride with 269 yards (4.3 YPC) in his past three contests, including 112 in the last game versus San Diego.
New York’s defense is also getting stronger, allowing just 576 yards and forcing five turnovers during its two-game win streak. The Jets have had little trouble defending the pass, ranking seventh in the league with 197 passing YPG allowed. They have forced 16 turnovers this season, which ties them for third-most in the NFL.
The Bills offense continues to revolve around RB Fred Jackson, who has racked up three straight 100-yard rushing efforts as part of 558 total yards (186 YPG) in these three games. However, Jackson was held to 35 yards on 13 carries the last time he faced New York, but Buffalo’s ground game currently ranks fifth in the league at 141 YPG. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has come down to earth after throwing for 280 YPG, 9 TD and 3 INT in the first three weeks of the season. In four games since, he has a modest 225 YPG with 5 TD and 4 INT. Fitzpatrick has not enjoyed facing the Jets in his career, completing just 47% of his passes and tallying a woeful 4.6 yards per attempt in four games.
The confidence on Buffalo’s defense couldn’t be any higher after holding Washington to 178 total yards in last week’s 23-0 shutout in Toronto. The Bills racked up 10 sacks and picked off two passes, upping their league-high total to 14. But they are still allowing 386 total YPG, which places them 26th in the league.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
