Green Bay Packers vs. San Diego Chargers Spread at -4.5 Favoring Packers

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
Published on:
Nov/05/2011
Green Bay Packers vs. San Diego Chargers Spread

The Green Bay Packers vs. San Diego Chargers spread was listed at -4.5 with the Chargers a rare home underdogNFL Live In-Progress Wagering Available Here

Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Green Bay -6 & 51

Opening Line & Total: Packers -4.5 & 51.5

After a devastating defeat in Kansas City on Monday Night, the Chargers will try to recover against an undefeated Packers team that hasn’t lost to San Diego in 27 years.

The last time the Chargers beat Green Bay was 1984, losing five straight meetings by an average score of 32 to 14. The last time the Packers lost an NFL game was last December in New England, when Aaron Rodgers wasn’t able to play. During Green Bay’s current 13-game win streak, Rodgers has thrown for 3,991 passing yards (307 YPG) with 34 TD and just 6 INT. The Pack are 10-3 ATS during this run and they’re going to San Diego at just the right time, as the Chargers secondary is in flux with rookie CB Marcus Gilchrist moving into the lineup. San Diego’s pass D numbers look good (186 YPG, fourth-best in NFL) because of the weak slate of QBs it has faced, but Tom Brady and the Patriots torched them for 410 passing yards, beating the Chargers by two touchdowns in Week 2. Expect Rodgers and his band of receivers to do the same.

Rodgers’ historic season (125.7 passer rating, 72% completion rate, 20 TD, 3 INT) has been even more impressive considering Green Bay’s lack of a running game. The Packers have yet to rush for 125 yards in a single game, and their 99.9 rushing YPG ranks 24th in the NFL. RB James Starks rushed for 75 yards (5.8 YPC) in the last game at Minnesota, but he’s averaging just 3.7 YPC in the past five weeks. Green Bay is pretty healthy coming off a bye week, which gave time for WR Greg Jennings to rest his bruised hand. Jennings didn’t let the injury affect him against Minnesota, as he gained a season-high 147 receiving yards. Jennings ranks fifth in the NFL with 96.7 receiving yards per game and has also scored five times.

The Packers continue to get torched by opposing quarterbacks, allowing the second-most passing yards in football this year (289 YPG). However, this number has improved recently, as they have gone five straight games without allowing 300 yards through the air, surrendering 245 passing YPG during this stretch. On the flip side, Green Bay started the season by allowing 55 rushing YPG over its first three games, but has been run over for 139 YPG in the past four games, which includes 218 rushing yards from Minnesota last week. The Packers continue to make plays on the ball though, creating 16 turnovers this season (tied for third-most in NFL).

Rivers single-handedly cost his team a victory on Monday night by fumbling a snap with under a minute left trying to set up a short game-winning field goal try. Rivers threw for 369 yards in the game, but he had zero touchdowns and 2 INT, giving him 7 TD and an NFL-most 11 INT this season. In his past five games, Rivers has 3 TD and 7 INT. Rivers needs to connect with top WR Vincent Jackson more often. In the past four games, Jackson has a total of 10 catches for 206 yards. Despite injuries to top RBs Ryan Mathews (multiple ailments) and Mike Tolbert (hamstring), the ground game has done pretty well, gaining 116 YPG (13th in NFL). Tolbert didn’t play against the Chiefs, but Mathews rushed for 57 yards and caught six passes for 55 yards before suffering a groin injury. If Mathews and Tolbert can’t play against Green Bay (both are questionable), second-year RB Curtis Brinkley will get the bulk of the carries. Brinkley rushed for 43 yards on 10 carries and a touchdown, while adding 24 receiving yards and catching a two-point conversion in the loss to Kansas City.

Although San Diego allowed 247 passing yards to the Chiefs and will have all kinds of trouble trying to contain Green Bay’s air attack, the Chargers did a nice job stuffing the run, holding K.C. to 94 yards on 32 carries (2.9 YPC). San Diego has forced nine turnovers in the past four games after just two takeaways in the season’s first three contests.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

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