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The Broncos vs. Vikings line was coming in at Minnesota -1.5 as Denver continues to press for a Playoffs spot and possible AFC West division win. Denver would still pay just shy of $200 for every $100 bet to win the AFC West and these payout odds are currently available at Sportsbook.com (until Sunday AM). It would be wise to lock these odds in now since we at Gambling911.com believe the price will be slashed to near even after this game.
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: Minnesota -1.5 & 37.5
Opening Line & Total: Vikings -2 & 37.5
The Broncos look to extend their win streak to five games when they visit Minnesota on Sunday.
Obviously, the headlines are all about Tim Tebow. And the Broncos are 5-1 SU and ATS since Tebow took over under center. But the real difference has been a defense that’s playing far better, as Denver has allowed a total of 36 points in its past three games. Vikings star RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) will be hobbled if he even suits up. In the past two seasons, Minnesota is 0-6 ATS when the total is a moderate number between 35.5 and 42 points. And Denver has done a great job rushing the football outside Colorado’s thin air, rumbling for 185 yards on 4.9 YPC in its six road games this year (5-1 ATS).
The Vikings will be the latest team to take on Tim Tebow and Denver’s zone-read option attack. Tebow is 4-0, SU and ATS, in road starts this year. But the fact that Minnesota has good athletes in its front seven, and doesn’t rely heavily on the blitz, should bode well for their matchup with Tebow, who has taken advantage of over-aggressive defenses.
Denver defeated San Diego 16-13 in OT last week, and did not turn the ball over for the third time in four games. That’s big reason the team has been able to win the close games, taking the past three victories by margins of 7, 4 and 3 points. Although Tebow is not throwing the football particularly well (45.5% completions, 5.96 YPA), his TD-to-INT ratio is a sparkling 8 TD to 1 INT. RB Willis McGahee has been bothered by a hand injury, but he sure looked healthy last week with 117 yards on 23 carries (5.1 YPC). He could struggle a bit against Minnesota’s 9th-best run defense (100 YPG). Denver won the last meeting in this series, 22-19 in 2007.
The Vikings are still breaking in a new QB of their own, rookie Christian Ponder, and may not have star RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) back in the lineup. The Minnesota offense simply could not move the ball without Peterson in Atlanta last week (64 rushing yards, 162 passing yards). Denver’s run defense had allowed just 105 YPG on 3.8 YPC over a five-game stretch before surrendering 185 in the overtime win at San Diego last week. Toby Gerhart (41 rush, 140 yds, 4.0 YPC) will get the bulk of the carries if Peterson can’t play, but WR Percy Harvin has also seen some time in the backfield, with 10 carries in the past two games and a total of 200 yards from scrimmage in this time frame.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
