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Carrie Stroup here with your 49ers vs. Packers spread, which can be found at Sportsbook.com here.
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -5 & 46.5
Opening Line & Total: Packers -6.5 & 45
The top two seeds in last year’s NFL playoffs open the season against one another on Sunday when the Packers host the 49ers.
San Francisco’s elite defense will go head-to-head with Green Bay’s explosive offense. The Niners’ run defense is elite, but their secondary was susceptible at times and could be exploited by Aaron Rodgers and Company. San Francisco’s offense should be a bit more aggressive this season, as they added big-play weapons in WRs Randy Moss and Mario Manningham and rookie RB LaMichael James. Green Bay has an aggressive secondary that forces tons of turnovers, but also gives up a plethora of big plays because of the gambles they take. The Packers rarely lose at Lambeau Field, going 21-3 SU and 17-6-1 ATS (74%) on their home field in the past three seasons. This trend also holds true in this series, as Green Bay is 13-1 SU (10-2-2 ATS) against the Niners since 1996, which includes five playoff meetings.
The 49ers are coming off a 14-4 season where they reached the NFC Championship game and posted a 12-5-1 ATS record (71%), which was topped only by New Orleans (13-5 ATS). QB Alex Smith did a great job protecting the football, throwing just five interceptions in 445 pass attempts, and leading his team to a league-best +28 turnover margin in 2011. His top two targets were WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, who both have more room to operate with the offseason additions to the receiving corps. But make no mistake that San Francisco is a run-first offense, throwing the second-fewest passes in the league last year at 28.2 per game. James joins veteran Frank Gore and second-year pro Kendall Hunter in a backfield that rushed for 128 yards per game last season, which ranked eighth in the NFL. Defensively, the Niners placed second in the league in scoring defense (14.3 PPG) and fourth in total defense (308 YPG), including a league-best run-stop unit both in terms of rushing yards (77 YPG) and yards per carry (3.5 YPC). LBs Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman anchor this unit in the middle, while DE Justin Smith is the pass-rushing threat up front. The one big injury concern for San Francisco for Week 1 is star kick returner Ted Ginn Jr. who is questionable with an ankle injury.
Rodgers is coming off a record-setting season in terms of QB rating (122.5) as he threw for 4,643 yards, 45 TD and just 6 INT in his 502 pass attempts. WRs Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings combined for 2,212 receiving yards and 24 TD last year, while TE Jermichael Finley caught eight touchdown passes. The rushing offense gained just 97 YPG last year (27th in NFL), but the hope is that free-agent Cedric Benson can chew up yards with his north-south power running this year. Defensively, the Packers love to gamble and try to take the football away. They led the NFL with 31 interceptions that was a big part of their +24 turnover margin, which ranked second in the league behind San Francisco. However, this big-play defense also comes at a price, as Green Bay allowed a league-high 412 total YPG. The Packers, who finished 15-1 (11-5 ATS) last year, start the season relatively healthy with the exceptions of LB Desmond Bishop (I.R., hamstring) and RB James Starks, who has been ruled out of this game with his turf toe injury.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
