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Carrie Stroup here with your 2015 AFC East Division betting odds to win courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.
AFC East
To get you prepared for the upcoming NFL season, we’ll be previewing every division in the league. There might be no better place to start than the AFC East, which will feature the New England Patriots looking to repeat as Super Bowl champions:
BUFFALO BILLS
2014 Statistics:
SU Record: 9-7
ATS Record: 9-7
Over/Under: 3-13
Points Scored: 21.4 PPG (18th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 18.1 PPG (4th in NFL)
Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: +4000
2015 Preview:
At its heart, new offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s running game is old-school physical. However, he showed a willingness to be creative when Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting QB in San Francisco, and he figures to make a similar adjustment with LeSean McCoy now his top back. Roman’s receiving corps is stronger than the one he had in San Francisco, but this unit figures to be more of a horizontal, catch-and-run attack. For Matt Cassel or Tyrod Taylor, it’s a simplified system with a lot of pre-determined reads, especially when they go spread.
Defensive-minded head coach Rex Ryan inherits a unit that led the league in sacks in 2014 and is the only NFL team to rack up more than 100 sacks over the past two seasons—DEs Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes are the stars.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
2014 Statistics:
SU Record: 8-8
ATS Record: 7-9
Over/Under: 8-8
Points Scored: 24.2 PPG (11th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 23.3 PPG (19th in NFL)
Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: +3700
2015 Preview:
Lamar Miller figures to get the bulk of the work again, with rookie Jay Ajayi (who slipped in the draft due to medical concerns) poised to take a lot of the snaps that used to go to Daniel Thomas. This is a passing game predicated on crossing routes and underneath throws. They use Jarvis Landry primarily out of the slot, though they figure to use him outside as well this year. He’s often Tannehill’s first look on shallow crosses. The boundary receivers, Kenny Stills and rookie DeVante Parker, will primarily be field-stretchers, but Tannehill has always been quick to check down. He’ll feature receivers on a lot of slip screens, which is where Parker could be a major weapon. Jordan Cameron will be used as a threat up the seam, a big-play option rather than just a check-down.
The Dolphins addressed their need for a better run defense by bringing in high-priced DT Ndamukong Suh. His presence will almost surely improve a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL against the run last season and 20th in the league in scoring defense.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2014 Statistics:
SU Record: 15-4
ATS Record: 11-8
Over/Under: 11-7-1
Points Scored: 30.3 PPG (1st in NFL)
Points Allowed: 19.7 PPG (t-7th in NFL)
Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: +850
2015 Preview:
More than any other team, the Patriots will change up their game plan week-to-week depending on the opponents’ strengths. When they face an undersized front seven like Indianapolis’, as they have three times since the start of the 2014 calendar year, they rely heavily on their power running game. They will often employ a sixth offensive lineman in an off-balanced line and slam LeGarrette Blount between the tackles. It’s a pick-your-poison passing attack that often uses spread concepts, stack formations and pick plays to create catch-and-run situations for guys like Julian Edelman and whomever the passing back will be, as well as Danny Amendola in spots.
The centerpiece is Rob Gronkowski, whom McDaniels often effectively isolates down the seam with outside receiver Brandon LaFell drawing enough safety help to open things up. They’ll throw out of run formations, in which Michael Hoomanawanui often plays more than Tim Wright.
With the Pats having lost DT Vince Wilfork and CBs Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to free agency, younger players like DE Chandler Jones and LBs Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower will be counted on to help lead the defense. It’s the secondary that appears to be the most glaring weakness.
NEW YORK JETS
2014 Statistics:
SU Record: 4-12
ATS Record: 6-9-1
Over/Under: 7-9
Points Scored: 17.7 PPG (28th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 25.1 PPG (24th in NFL)
Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: +10000
2015 Preview:
New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s offense is a lot of smoke and mirrors. But despite that and the upgrade in receiving game weapons, the Jets still figure to lean on the running game. New offensive line coach Steve Marshall comes over from Green Bay, where in Eddie Lacy he had a nimble big back similar to Chris Ivory. Ivory should thrive on inside zone runs, especially as Stevan Ridley works his way back from a torn ACL.
Gailey made it work with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center in Buffalo, using a lot of spread concepts, picks and natural rubs to get receivers open. This is more of a catch-and-run offense, and Brandon Marshall should emerge as the No. 1 receiver working underneath and over the middle as a possession receiver. Eric Decker is 1A, working the boundary for the most part.
With Todd Bowles leaving his job as Arizona’s defensive coordinator to replace Rex Ryan as the Jets’ head coach, expect Gang Green to improve on a scoring defense that ranked 24th in the NFL in 2014. Of course, it will also help to have CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie back in the secondary.
