Is There Value in Betting Heath Ledger to Win Oscar?

Written by:
Jordan Bach
Published on:
Feb/16/2009
Heath Ledger

Gambling911.com has posed this question already:  Should anyone even bother to bet on Heath Ledger winning an Oscar for his portrayal of the Joker in "The Dark Knight"?

It's not that we don't expect him to win, quite the contrary.  We fully expect Heath Ledger to win the posthumous Oscar, but at what odds?

BetUS.com has Heath Ledger listed as the -8000 favorite.

"There has never been an -8000 favorite to win an Academy Award that we are aware of," says Payton O'Brien, Senior Editor of the Gambling911.com website.  "You would literally have to drop $8000 just to win $100."

Or $80 to win a dollar.

Ledger died at the age of 28 from an accidental "toxic combination of prescription drugs" last year.

Following The Dark Knight's release, online oddsmakers like BetUS.com began offering odds on Ledger's chance of winning an Oscar.  At the time, his odds were not entirely out of reach.

"Last summer this bet had great value," O'Brien acknowledged.  "At the time though the odds were not on whether Heath Ledger would win but rather would he be nominated."

He was actually listed with +125 odds of winning back in July, with what is now almost a guaranteed payout of $125 for every $100 bet.  The odds of Ledger being nominated were 1/5.

At the time it didn't seem like a "lock" he would even be nominated.

Jason Solomons  of the Sunday Observer remarked last summer:

"Ledger, for my liking, doesn't quite have the ticcy, nervy danger on screen that would have made his Joker an outstanding piece of cinematic devilment. He didn't scare me each time he arrived, the way one of his current co-stars, Gary Oldman, still does."

Over in The Telegraph, talk show host/movie critic Jonathan Ross called Ledger's performance 'boring and gloomy'.

"They probably also placed their bets on Heath Ledger winning early on," surmised O'Brien.

The big question might be:  "Is anyone actually betting on someone else to win ‘Best Supporting Actor'?"

The Oscars is the third most bet on single day event of the year.

Jordan Bach, Gambling911.com 

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