Duke vs. North Carolina Betting Odds
Carrie Stroup here with your Duke vs. North Carolina betting odds for Wednesday’s games. North Carolina -7, Total: 162
DUKE BLUE DEVILS (19-6) at N CAROLINA TAR HEELS (21-4)
No. 5 North Carolina looks to stop a three-game skid in its series against arch-rival Duke when the Tar Heels host the No. 20 Blue Devils on Wednesday night.
North Carolina (9-15-1 ATS; 4-8 ATS in-conference) hopes to have cleared the rough patch in their schedule after dropping consecutive road defeats at Louisville and at Notre Dame to start this month. The Tar Heels then squeaked by lowly Boston College in Chestnut Hill (68-65, UNC -20) which would take them to 1-6 ATS over a seven game stretch from Jan 16 – Feb 9. Coach Roy Williams’ club, however, would look like themselves again in their most recent victory over Pittsburgh last Sunday (85-64, UNC -10), shooting 59% FG and dishing out 26 assists in the friendly confines of the Dean Dome. North Carolina is a perfect 13-0 at home this season, albeit just 5-7-1 ATS.
Duke comes into Wednesday night’s game playing their best basketball of the season since losing F Amile Jefferson indefinitely due to injury. The Blue Devils, who struggled to find their stride in January and fell out of the national rankings, used last week to knock off two top-15 teams in defeating Louisville (72-65, Duke -3.5) and Virginia (63-62, Duke -2), giving coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad a four game winning streak and putting them back in the national rankings, while leaving Duke just two games behind North Carolina for the top spot in the ACC standings. Duke’s win over Virginia on Sunday was of the buzzer-beating variety, with star guard Grayson Allen hitting an off-balance shot in the lane. Duke is 4-2 SU (4-2 ATS) on the road this season and 11-12-1 ATS overall.
To say the history between these two schools is well-documented would be an understatement. The last 20 meetings have been almost even, with Duke holding an 11-9 SU edge (9-11 ATS). The Blue Devils have actually won three of the last four (3-1 ATS) in Chapel Hill, as well.
Recent trends show the road team in this series having excellent returns against the spread (7-2 ATS), while the total has gone UNDER six of the last eight times that North Carolina has hosted Duke.
Allen’s heroics against Virginia could be what provides the Blue Devils with enough confidence to take a fourth game in a row off of their hated rivals. The rising star (20.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.7 APG) has been everything coach Krzyzewski could’ve hoped for coming into this season. Make no mistake, stopping Allen should be the top priority for the Tar Heels. In six Duke losses this season Allen is averaging just 13.8 PPG.
Duke has gotten a big boost from freshman F Brandon Ingram (17.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG), especially since Jefferson’s injury. Ingram has had to play big on defense to help out C Marshall Plumlee (8.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG) and the lanky future pro has responded to average 8.9 RPG in his last 7 games, including four double-doubles. Ingram’s ability to step outside and drill the three at his size (41% 3PT, 2.2 3PM) is what makes him such an intriguing prospect for NBA scouts.
Duke’s 11th ranked offense scores at an 83.4 PPG clip. The Blue Devils are a great first-half team (offensively), scoring 41 points on average in the opening 20 minutes (4th NCAA). They also hold a big edge over North Carolina in their ability to hit the three, as the Blue Devils shoot 39.2% 3PT (19th NCAA) and make 9 threes per game.
Unfortunately for Duke, they won’t have much answer for North Carolina on the glass, as they allow more than 10 offensive rebounds per game to their opponents (274th NCAA). Those second chances are what has Duke buried amongst the nation’s worst (311th) in FGA against per game (62.1).
North Carolina holds a statistical edge over Duke in just about every major category besides long-distance shooting, but the edges are slighter than you’d think. The Tar Heels score more per game (83.8 PPG), play slightly better defense (70.2 PPG), and shoot it better from the field (48.3% FG, 17th NCAA), but do it from the inside-out, unlike Duke who relies on drives and jumpers.
The Tar Heels are also a much more opportunistic on defense, where their 7.3 SPG (51st NCAA) is a big edge over Duke, and could come in handy against a team without a true point guard. Of course, North Carolina holds a big edge on the glass (40.4 RPG, 22nd NCAA; 12 ORPG, 19th NCAA). The Tar Heels will have to clamp down on the perimeter to snuff out Duke’s hopes of winning again in Chapel Hill, and that is – unfortunately for North Carolina fans – a weakness for coach Williams’ crew (36.8% 3PT against, 287th NCAA).
The Tar Heels will rely on the individual experience and brilliance of their senior leaders, F Brice Johnson (16.4 PPG, 10 RPG) and G Marcus Paige (13 PPG, 3.7 APG), who’ve been here before in the trenches of this rivalry. Paige had 23 points in last season’s home loss versus Duke while Johnson had 35 points and 19 rebounds combined last season against the Blue Devils.
A big boon to North Carolina’s attack, however, would be a healthy and focused Kennedy Meeks (10.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG). Meeks has had a very rough season, battling myriad ailments and getting docked for missing shoot-around recently. Coach Williams has kept his playing time restricted to roughly 20 minutes per game and Meeks has responded by failing to reach double figures in six of his last seven games.
Sophomore G Joel Berry II (12.2 PPG, 4.2 APG) provides a steady, if unspectacular, option as Paige’s backcourt mate. Berry II’s consistency, however, has provided a rudder for the Tar Heels amongst Paige and Meeks’ injuries and inconsistent play from other perimeter performers.
