What Should the Lines Be for the Round 1 NBA Games?

The First Round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs gets underway this weekend and we have your lines for each series....well, what the lines should be at least.  The actual numbers might turn out to be different.

What the First Round Lines Should Be Each Series

Magic +2 Cavs

Cavs +2 Magic

Suns +4.5 TWolves

TWolves PK Suns

76ers +4 Knicks

Knicks PK 76ers

Lakers +6 Nuggets

Nuggets -2 Lakers

Heat +11 Celtics

Celtics -7 Heat

Mavs +2 Clippers

Clippers +1.5 Mavs

Pacers +2 Bucks

Bucks +2.5 Pacers

Sunday April 21

Every single favorite came through on Saturday.  That typically means we'll want to hone in on the dogs for Sunday's games.

The LA Clippers opened as a +2 home dog against Dallas.  The wrong team is favored here. Our model doesn't give an edge to either team.  As of Sunday morning, Kawhi Leonard was questionable for the Clippers.

The Bucks were another home dog.  Damian Lillard is listed as day-to-day while Giannis Antetokounmpo is not likely to play in Game 1.  To make matters worse, the Pacers have won five of the last seven in this series.  The wrong team is favored but the Giannis injury is not necessarily factored into that equation.  We should note that Bucks head coach Doc Rivers refused to rule out the two-time league Most Valuable Player Antetokounmpo for Sunday’s Game 1. Our model likes Milwaukee and we believe the public will eat Indy up with this line.

Miami opened at -13 and that number then moved to -14.  While home favorites above the -9 mark have mostly gotten clobbered against the spread, Boston really is due for a cover here.  Also the number is such that the general public should be attracted to Miami's ability to cover within this range.  True we have Boston able to cover by just 11 but they are just too good, especially at home.

NBA odds had yet to be established on the Heat-Celtics and Pelicans-Thunder games as of yet.

Monday April 22

After the Cavs demolished Orlando in Game 1, they opened as a -5.5 favorite, indicating yet another 2 to 3 point overlay.

The Knicks should be a -4.5 favorite at home and open at -5.5 following their Game 1 win.  This series tends to alternate wins between the two teams.

Denver proved once more they have the Lakers number.  The line opened where it should at -7.  Pay attention here.  If we see the number drop to -6.5 that could indicate the books like LA to cover.

Saturday April 20

We start the day off with Orlando at Cleveland and the Cavs are a -4.5 favorite here.  That's an overlay of around 2 points.  These teams are pretty much playing at the same tier and that has boded well for the road dog when there is an overlay.  Folks will likely be all over the Cavaliers in Game 1 as they've mostly dominated Orlando, up until this season that is.  These teams split both straight up and against the spread.  We like the Magic +4.5 here but do pay attention to the leaderboard handicappers in the NBA. Logan Wilson, Mario DeLuca and Sports Hub Insider have been caliente over the last 14 days while The Bookie has been hot over the last month as has Kyle Buckman and Robert Jones. Sports Hub Insider, we should warn, was all over Cleveland for this game.

The T-Wolves are just a -1.5 favorite hosting Phoenix whereas they should be at -4.5. That's an underlay of 3 points.  We should see an influx of gamblers backing the Suns as a result of their 9-1 dominance over Minnesota in the last ten matches. Phoenix does look like a good play here according to our model.

The 76ers-Knicks line is pretty much on the money at -2.5 to -3 with a lean on the underlay.

Lakers-Nuggets is mostly on the money as well.  Denver opened as a -7 home favorite and has held there overnight.  We've seen the number at -6.5 and at -7.5.  Our model strongly favors Denver here and it helps that they are 8-0 Straight Up over the last eight head-to-heads. They've also covered the spread in the last five meetings between the two teams.

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com