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NFL Week 4 By the Numbers

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Oct/08/2020

The worst division in the NFL, and it's not even close, is the NFC East. After Week 4, during which three of the division's four teams lost, the NFC East's combined record is 3-12-1. That includes Washington's win over Philadelphia, making the division 2-11-1 against the rest of the league. 

Somehow, the Eagles are leading the division with a record of 1-2-1 following their upset of San Francisco. Week 5 has some questions surrounding it with the coronavirus creeping into locker rooms. As bettors, you can take advantage of the situation with NFL COVID prop bets. 

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After Week 4 wins, Seattle and Green Bay remained undefeated on the field and against the spread. They are also the only remaining unbeaten teams in the NFC, with one-game leads in their respective divisions. 

Four teams have yet to cover the spread, most notably the pair of teams from Texas. Houston, after four losses and failing to cover against good teams, fired head coach Bill O'Brien after six seasons. With a new head coach on the sideline, things haven't changed much in Dallas. 

Where’s the D? 

The Cowboys are 1-3 and struggling mightily on defense, giving up a league-high 36.5 points a game. That's the bad news, but the good news is they play in the beleaguered NFC East. They only trail the Eagles by a half-game and still control their own destiny to win the division. 

In New York, no team playing its home games across the river from Manhattan in Giants Stadium has won a game. The Jets have taken losing to a new level, failing to cover and scoring just 16 points a game. The only team with fewer points is, you guessed it, the other team that makes Giants Stadium home. 

Finally, the other team that hasn't covered a spread this season is Tennessee, despite sporting a 3-0 record. The Titans have yet to lose to a trio of 1-3 teams and now host Buffalo this week. In a battle of unbeaten teams, Tennessee is an 8.5-point home underdog. 

As far as spreads are concerned, Week 4 had an average point spread of 5.7 across the league. There were three double-digit spreads, with the favorite covering one, the underdog another, and one a push. 

In case you missed it, here’s NFL Week 3 By the Numbers. 

Scoring Binge 

The league is averaging a record 51.3 points a game so far in the 2020 season. Eight teams are averaging more than 30 points a game. The combination of a generation of rules changes benefiting the offenses has met the lack of a preseason. 

For the season, the oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the increase in scoring with their over/under lines. The cumulative over/under betting lines have been 249 points lower than the total points scored. That means, on average, the over/under line is almost four points less than the actual points scored. 

For Week 4, the average was a little more than two points a game under the actual points. It's still translating into consistent wins for across the board over bets. Take a look at NFL Week 5 best bets. 

On the season, the over has paid out in 35 games and the under in 23 with five pushes. A bet of $10 on the over in every game would have netted a cool $108.

Football News News

Vanderbilt vs. Hawai'i Week 0 Game Spread

Vanderbilt is a -6.5 home favoriteThe Sagarin Rating for Vanderbilt (142) 53.31 and Hawaii (102) 63.46.

Oregon vs. UGA Week 1 Game Spread

Oregon vs. UGA Week 1 Game Spread

These teams haven't met since 1977 but the SEC has won seven of its past 10 meetings against the Pac-12, though five of those SEC wins were decided by eight points or less.  The payout would be around $600 for every $100 bet on the moneyline should the Ducks beat the Bulldogs

North Texas vs. UTEP Week 1 Game Spread

North Texas vs. UTEP Week 1 Game Spread

UNT is -1 against UTEP for this Week 1 game.  The Sagarin Rating for North Texas (113) was 59.71 and UTEP (126) was at 57.52.  These were the closing ratings for 2021 so adjustments will need to be made.  This gives us a line of a PICK'EM after adjusting for the home field advantage.

Charlotte vs. FAU Week 1 Game Spread

Charlotte vs. FAU Week 1 Game Spread

The Owls have won five of the last seven meetings versus the 49ers.  Should Charlotte manage to win outright, the payout was coming in at $235 for every $100 on the moneyline.

Wyoming vs. Illinois Week 1 Game Spread

Wyoming vs. Illinois Week 1 Game Spread

The Mountain West has only won 8 out of 59 games against the Big 10 conference while Wyoming has gone 0-5.  Should Wyoming win against Illinois, the payout would be $360 on a $100 bet at some books.

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