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Find Elon Musk Twitter Odds: BetOnline Now Offering Share Price Odds at Time of Takeover, More

Written by:
Aaron Goldstein
Published on:
Jun/03/2022

  • Elon Musk has closed on deal worth around $44 billion in cash, Reuters reports

  • Musk now says he wants to slash Twitter offer based on the number of bots

  • On May 13, Musk announced the deal was "temporarily on hold"

  • On June 3, an important US Antitrust review was cleared

  • On June 16, Musk was accused of running a pyramid scheme tied to the digital coin Dogecoin with the plaintiff seeking $86 billion in damages 

  • BetOnline now offering odds on Twitter share price tied to Musk takeover

Oddsmakers have jumped all over the opportunity to offer betting on Elon Musk and his interest in taking control of Twitter.   Now that the purchase has been made official plenty of more odds will be available including whether he will reinstate former US President Donald Trump's Twitter account, if an edit button becomes available and there are even odds on whether the New York Times leaves Twitter, with betting now available at BetOnline.

The deal was said to be worth $44 billion in cash according to Reuters.

Shares of Twitter rose over 6% shortly after that news broke but Musk continues to sow doubt that the deal will occur by claiming that the social media platform refuses to explain 'very suspicious' bot calculations.

"They still refuse to explain how they calculate that 5% of daily users are fake/spam! Very suspicious," he tweeted on May 21.

On June 3, 2022, it was revealed that Twitter had cleared a pivotal US Antitrust review on the deal.  And, while approval was largely expected, the transaction is still subject to acceptance by Twitter shareholders as well as other regulatory reviews.

Shares were up just shy of 2% on this news June 3.

Elon Musk addressed Twitter employees for the first time in an hour-long meeting on Thursday June 16 saying he didn't care about being the social media platform's CEO, but expects people to listen to him regardless.

"I just want to make sure that the product evolves rapidly and in a good way."

On June 21, the Twitter board filed a document with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that “unanimously recommends that you vote (for) the adoption of the merger agreement."

They also recommended that shareholders approve “the compensation that will or may become payable by Twitter to its named executive officers in connection with the merger”.

Elon Musk Twitter Betting Props

Current Available Betting at BetOnline as of June 3, 2022

Twitter Share Price on June 30th

Under 39.5 $

Over 39.5 $

-120

-120

Musk Twitter Takeover Share Price (Must Occur Before January 1, 2023 for Bet to be Valid)

Under 41.5 $

Over 41.5 $

-120

-120

Elon Musk Twitter Takeover Before January 1, 2023

No

-275

Yes

+185

These props are either anticipated and/or limited:

  • Will Elon Musk complete his purchase of Twitter?
  • Will Elon Musk be in Charge of Twitter by December 31, 2023?
  • Will Donald Trump have his Twitter account reinstated?
  • Will the New York Times leave Twitter?
  • Will an edit feature be added on Twitter?
  • Will Mark Cuban be banned from Twitter?

Tesla Tie In

Shares of the electric car company, which is where Musk’s derives much of his wealth, sank more than 10 percent during trading Friday.  It even dropped at one point to around $636 per share. That’s about a 35 percent drop from its price on the day Musk’s deal to buy Twitter was announced.  It has been reported that Musk has taken out extensive personal loans that are heavily tied to the value of Tesla’s stock.

On June 3, 2022, Musk said the electric carmaker needs to cut staff by around 10%.  The day prior he ordered all employees to return to their physical work locations (as opposed to a remote work environment) or otherwise risk losing their jobs.

More Bumps in the Road

Musk and Twitter Inc were sued on Friday May 6, 2022 by a Florida pension fund seeking to stop Musk from completing the $44 billion takeover of the social media firm before 2025.

In a proposed class action filed in Delaware Chancery Court, the Orlando Police Pension Fund said Delaware law forbade “a quick merger” because Musk had agreements with other big Twitter shareholders.  These included financial advisors Morgan Stanley and Jack Dorsey, the man who founded Twitter.

The claim is that these agreements made Musk a 15 percent owner of Twitter shares and thus requires a three-year delay in the merger unless two-thirds of shares not "owned" by Musk granted approval.

On May 13, Musk announced that the deal was "temporarily on hold" as he tries to pinpoint the exact number of spam and fake accounts on the social media platform, another twist amid signs of turmoil over the proposed $44 billion acquisition.

“Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users,” Musk said Friday.

And while Musk later tweeted that he’s “still committed to acquisition", some were beginning to wonder if the spam/fake account issue could provide an off-ramp for the billionaire.

Sara Silver, a professor of business journalism and financial communication at Quinnipiac University, told the Associated Press it appears Musk is using the number of spam accounts as a pretext to back out of the deal as it’s something he’s well aware of.

“To claim that this is the reason that he’s putting the deal on pause, it’s not credible,” Silver said. “This is not a new issue for him. It’s not just entering his consciousness now.”

On Thursday, June 16, 2022, it was revealed that Musk had been sued for allegedly running a pyramid scheme tied to the digital coin Dogecoin.  The plaintiff in that case was seeking $86 billion in damages, which represents the lost value of the coin.

"Defendants were aware since 2019 that Dogecoin had no value yet promoted Dogecoin to profit from its trading," the complaint said. "Musk used his pedestal as World's Richest man to operate and manipulate the Dogecoin Pyramid Scheme for profit, exposure and amusement."

Trump Reinstatement Odds Up Now

A sports and political wagering site, BetOnline, has offered odds on the @RealDonaldTrump Twitter ban being lifted since the middle of last year.

Last year, the initial odds that the ban would be removed by December 31, 2022, were 7-1, or +700. That “underdog” number has been bet down to these current odds:

(American odds are listed first and the equivalent fractional odds are second)

Will @RealDonaldTrump Twitter ban be lifted by 12/31/22?

Yes:  +250  (5-2)

No:  -400  (1-4)

The above odds imply just a 28.6% probability that Trump’s Twitter account will be restored by the end of the year.

Of course, if Musk’s purchase isn’t completed by the end of 2022, then the odds would look much different for a 2023 Trump social reinstatement. Here are those projections:

Will @RealDonaldTrump Twitter ban be lifted by 12/31/23?

Yes:  +125  (5-4)

No:  -175  (4-7)

On May 10, 2022, Musk finally revealed he would allow the former US President back on the platform.

"I do think it was not correct to ban Donald Trump, I think that was a mistake," Musk said. "I would reverse the perma-ban. ... But my opinion, and Jack Dorsey, I want to be clear, shares this opinion, is that we should not have perma-bans."

Dorsey, Twitter's cofounder and former CEO, tweeted Tuesday following Musk's remarks that he does "agree" there shouldn't be permanent bans on Twitter users. "There are exceptions ... but generally permanent bans are a failure of ours and don't work," he said.

Twitter declined to comment on Musk's remarks.

Space XXX

On May 19, 2022, it was revealed that a SpaceX flight attendant said Elon Musk exposed himself and propositioned her for sex, documents show. The company paid $250,000 for her silence.

The billionaire founder exposed his penis to her and offered to buy her a horse, according to claims in a declaration.

Musk denied the allegations.

"If I were inclined to engage in sexual harassment, this is unlikely to be the first time in my entire 30-year career that it comes to light," he wrote, calling the story a "politically motivated hit piece."

Musk vs Cuban

Now enter Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban to the mix.  Ironically, Cuban was trending on Twitter in mid April after alleging Musk was "f***ing with the SEC in an effort to drive up the value of his Twitter shares before selling them at huge profit.

Musk running afoul of the SEC is nothing new.

In a 2018 tweet, Musk declared that he had “funding secured” to take Tesla private at $420 per share, which then prompted the SEC to accuse him of making false and misleading statements about the company’s finances.

Cuban elaborated further.

“His filing w/the SEC allows him to say he wants to take a company private for $54.20 Vs. his ‘Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.’

“Price go up. His shares get sold. Profit [up] SEC like WTF just happened,” Cuban added.

- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com

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