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Find Elon Musk Twitter Odds: Deal Halted?

Written by:
Aaron Goldstein
Published on:
May/13/2022

  • Elon Musk has closed on deal worth around $44 billion in cash, Reuters reports

  • Twitter and Musk were negotiating details, including when a potential deal might close and any fees paid if the deal fell through, The New York Times reports

  • On May 9, Reuters reported that shareholders had were challenging the purchase in a lawsuit

  • On May 13, Musk announced the deal was "temporarily on hold"

Oddsmakers have jumped all over the opportunity to offer betting on Elon Musk and his interest in taking control of Twitter.   Now that the purchase has been made official plenty of more odds will be available including whether he will reinstate former US President Donald Trump's Twitter account, if an edit button becomes available and there are even odds on whether the New York Times leaves Twitter, with betting now available at BetOnline.

The deal was said to be worth $44 billion in cash according to Reuters.

Shares of Twitter rose over 6% shortly after the news broke.

Elon Musk Twitter Betting Props

Current Available Betting at SportsBetting.ag as of May 18, 2022

Will Elon Musk acquire Twitter before January 1, 2023?

Yes +100

No -140

Twitter share price (dollars) on May 31, 2021

Over 36.5 (USD)

Under 36.5 (USD)

Bump in the Road

Musk and Twitter Inc were sued on Friday May 6, 2022 by a Florida pension fund seeking to stop Musk from completing the $44 billion takeover of the social media firm before 2025.

In a proposed class action filed in Delaware Chancery Court, the Orlando Police Pension Fund said Delaware law forbade “a quick merger” because Musk had agreements with other big Twitter shareholders.  These included financial advisors Morgan Stanley and Jack Dorsey, the man who founded Twitter.

The claim is that these agreements made Musk a 15 percent owner of Twitter shares and thus requires a three-year delay in the merger unless two-thirds of shares not "owned" by Musk granted approval.

On May 13, Musk announced that the deal was "temporarily on hold" as he tries to pinpoint the exact number of spam and fake accounts on the social media platform, another twist amid signs of turmoil over the proposed $44 billion acquisition.

“Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users,” Musk said Friday.

And while Musk later tweeted that he’s “still committed to acquisition", some were beginning to wonder if the spam/fake account issue could provide an off-ramp for the billionaire.

Sara Silver, a professor of business journalism and financial communication at Quinnipiac University, told the Associated Press it appears Musk is using the number of spam accounts as a pretext to back out of the deal as it’s something he’s well aware of.

“To claim that this is the reason that he’s putting the deal on pause, it’s not credible,” Silver said. “This is not a new issue for him. It’s not just entering his consciousness now.”

Trump Reinstatement Odds Up Now

A sports and political wagering site, BetOnline, has offered odds on the @RealDonaldTrump Twitter ban being lifted since the middle of last year.

Last year, the initial odds that the ban would be removed by December 31, 2022, were 7-1, or +700. That “underdog” number has been bet down to these current odds:

(American odds are listed first and the equivalent fractional odds are second)

Will @RealDonaldTrump Twitter ban be lifted by 12/31/22?

Yes:  +250  (5-2)

No:  -400  (1-4)

The above odds imply just a 28.6% probability that Trump’s Twitter account will be restored by the end of the year.

Of course, if Musk’s purchase isn’t completed by the end of 2022, then the odds would look much different for a 2023 Trump social reinstatement. Here are those projections:

Will @RealDonaldTrump Twitter ban be lifted by 12/31/23?

Yes:  +125  (5-4)

No:  -175  (4-7)

On May 10, 2022, Musk finally revealed he would allow the former US President back on the platform.

"I do think it was not correct to ban Donald Trump, I think that was a mistake," Musk said. "I would reverse the perma-ban. ... But my opinion, and Jack Dorsey, I want to be clear, shares this opinion, is that we should not have perma-bans."

Dorsey, Twitter's cofounder and former CEO, tweeted Tuesday following Musk's remarks that he does "agree" there shouldn't be permanent bans on Twitter users. "There are exceptions ... but generally permanent bans are a failure of ours and don't work," he said.

Twitter declined to comment on Musk's remarks.

Space XXX

On May 19, 2022, it was revealed that a SpaceX flight attendant said Elon Musk exposed himself and propositioned her for sex, documents show. The company paid $250,000 for her silence.

The billionaire founder exposed his penis to her and offered to buy her a horse, according to claims in a declaration.

Musk denied the allegations.

"If I were inclined to engage in sexual harassment, this is unlikely to be the first time in my entire 30-year career that it comes to light," he wrote, calling the story a "politically motivated hit piece."

Cuban Doubted Musk's Intentions Early On

Now enter Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban to the mix.  Ironically, Cuban was trending on Twitter in mid April after alleging Musk was "f***ing with the SEC in an effort to drive up the value of his Twitter shares before selling them at huge profit.

Musk running afoul of the SEC is nothing new.

In a 2018 tweet, Musk declared that he had “funding secured” to take Tesla private at $420 per share, which then prompted the SEC to accuse him of making false and misleading statements about the company’s finances.

Cuban elaborated further.

“His filing w/the SEC allows him to say he wants to take a company private for $54.20 Vs. his ‘Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.’

“Price go up. His shares get sold. Profit [up] SEC like WTF just happened,” Cuban added.

- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com

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