Odds of a US Recession Continue to Rise as Tariffs Still a Threat

Polymarket's odds of a recession in the US still held at 56 percent as the fear of tariffs continues.

The IMF on Thursday said they believe global growth will be hurt by trade tensions but do no expect a recession.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters countries' economies were being tested by a reboot of the global trading system - sparked in recent months by U.S. tariffs and retaliation by China and the European Union - that had unleashed "off the charts" uncertainty in trade policy and extreme volatility in financial markets.

"Disruptions entail costs ... our new growth projections will include notable markdowns but not recession," she said in an address ahead of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington next week. US President Donald Trump's tariffs and the turmoil in financial markets are expected to dominate the spring meetings. Georgieva said the world's real economy is functioning well, with a strong labor market and a solid financial system, but warned that increasingly negative perceptions and concerns about recession could also affect economic activity. "One thing I learned through crisis periods is perceptions matter as much as reality," she said. "If perceptions change negatively that can be quite detrimental to the performance of the economy."

This market will resolve to “Yes” at Pollymarket, if either of the following conditions are met:

1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.